Oct 31 The year end rally is under way a week earlier than predicted. The Dow and SandP made new highs today but it would take another 7% rise in the NYSE to compensate for the fact that daily volume on up days has been lower on average than volume on daily declines and therefore the Market Cash Flow index is 7% below its peak of 7-3-2014. The broader NYSE market also has not advanced to a new high indicating this year end rally involves a flight to safety.

While housing stocks are at record high levels housing permits and housing starts are half of what they were prior to Obama.

http://hosting.briefing.com/cschwab/Calendars/EconomicReleases/starts.htm

 And new home sales are one third of what they were prior to Obama.  That is called an Obama recovery where Obama is by far the most intelligent and open minded the leftists have to offer.

Hillary said "Don't let anybody tell you that it's corporations and businesses that create jobs,"

http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/27/politics/hillary-clinton-job-creation/index.html

 

Oct 30 America is being stolen from Americans. Every aspect of the American political and economic system has been attacked and degraded by the Obama administration. Obama, opens his mouth and inserts his foot again. US relations with Israel have plunged to new depths as senior officials in the Obama administration decried Binyamin Netanyahu as a “chickenshit prime minister”, “coward” and a man more interested in his own political survival than peace. Who are the Obama Czars to call others names? Is it just incompetence or is it intentional to destroy America? Most of the Guantanamo terrorists he released have now joined ISIS and other terrorist groups. Leftist voting fraud is now out of control.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/29/binyamin-netanyahu-a-chickenshit-say-us-officials-in-explosive-interview

http://teapartyorg.ning.com/forum/topics/obama-administration-officials-calls-israeli-prime-minister-netan

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/05/31/us-pays-high-price-for-last-pow-in-afghanistan.html

Massive voting fraud has been proven.  Illegal immigrants who avoided jury duty by admitting they are not American Citizens have been identified as registered to vote next week.  Cocaine has also been used for buying votes.  Obama knows there is no need for fake ID’s because there is no longer a need Democrats to vote multiple times.  Cocaine is even used to get out the Democrat vote!

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2014/10/29/massive-non-citizen-voting-uncovered-in-maryland/

http://www.businessinsider.com/campaign-manager-charged-with-buying-votes-2014-9

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-Texas/2014/09/1/Court-Records-Accuse-Democrats-Of-Using-Cocaine-Buy-Votes

 

Oct 29  Obama made America’s future missile program dependent on Vladimir Putin by allowing a private firm to use left over Russia’s booster rockets of a 40 year old design.  The explosion of the Russian designed and built launch vehicle yesterday destroyed not only the supplies needed for the USA manned space program but destroyed the American launch  facility and flattened the American launch island.    Fortunately no Americans were lost.  With classic incompetence, this Obama space program could at some future time leave Americans stranded in space with the entire world listening to them die with no American rescue capability.  At the same time Obama seems to be allowing Iran to develop their nuclear capability which has a range to reach Western Europe, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, India, Israel and other potential Iranian targets in an insane and hostile Middle East.  ISIS is controlled by the same Sunnis who supported Saddam Hussein and who hate and can easily defeat the Shiite Iranians and acquire the Iranian nuclear arsenal that is being assembled.  Vladimir Putin has been believed by some to be selling nuclear weapons to the highest bidders to offset the Obama boycott.  It is otherwise impossible to explain the number of nukes Pakistan claims they have aimed at India.

 

Oct 27    How will the stock market respond to the elections next week?  Will it respond to future government expectations as it did when it hit bottom the week Obama was inaugurated and then rose continually as his leftist policies failed and he lost popular support ?  Certainly government makes a difference because it is obvious that leftist wealth redistribution and government employment redistribution policies destroy economies with government and corporate corruption, group-think leftist re-education, and with increasing voting, disability, and welfare fraud.  The Obama administration and Putin are examples of that.  President Regan and China’s current growth are examples of the results of using free enterprise methods and pay for performance as motivators not corruption and personal time off.  

 

World Economy

Oct 30

 

Oct 27  Brazilian assets tumbled following leftist Dilma Rousseff’s re-election.   That will be as bad for Brazil as Obama’s re-election was for the USA.  When an incompetent administration gets re-elected it typically shows it doesn’t give a dam and shows it hubris and mean selfish demeanor.  European stocks tumbled, led by Italian, Greek, and Cyprus banks after balance-sheet debt/equity stress tests of the country banks.

 

American Economy

The American real estate market went into rapid retreat at the end of September as a glut of  existing homes went on the market too late to take advantage of summer .

Oct 27

Pending Home Sales Sep 0.3% vs 0.5% expected -

Oct 28  Durable Orders Sep -1.3% vs 0.6% expected -

Durable Goods -ex transportation Sep -0.2% vs 0.7% final -

Case-Shiller 20-city Index Aug 5.6% vs 6.7% -

Consumer Confidence Oct 94.5 vs 86.0 within the scatter

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=consumer_sentiment

Oct 29

MBA Mortgage Index 10/25 -6.6% sharply down from 11.6%  as home sales suddenly hit a brick wall and existing homes for sale rose 35%.

Oct 30

Initial Claims 10/25 287K up from 283K --

Continuing Claims 10/18 2384K up from 2351K --

GDP-Adv. Q3 3.5% down from 4.6% -

Chain Deflator-Adv. Q3 1.3% down from 2.1%

Oct 31

Personal Income Sep 0.2% down from 0.3% -

Personal Spending Sep -0.2% down sharply from 0.5% --

PCE Prices - Core Sep 0.1% flat at 0.1%

Employment Cost Index Q3 0.7% flat  at 0.7% -

Chicago PMI Oct 66.2 up from 60.5 +++

Michigan Sentiment - Final Oct 86.9 up from 86.4  Americans are very optimistic they can throw most of the leftist bums out of the Senate and House.  Then Obama will be forced to take responsibility for the cost and danger of shipping American oil by rail instead of a pipeline.  Then there will be better oversight of leftist harassment of patriotic Americans.  Then the character traits of the founding fathers such as honesty, and industry will get some respect.

 

The Markets

Oct 29  July 27, 2007 was our Market Cash Flow sell signal for the last economic cycle.  It gave ample time to unload stocks.  That was after our index first had a head and shoulders sell formation.  It took five months for the many market price indices to indicate that the bear market had begun.  It was not until April of 2008 that the Obama-Dodd-Frank Liar Loan derivatives markets faltered and the damage of the Fannie and Freddie usurpation of the banking mortgage system became evident.  The cause of every economic collapse is never precisely known until a massive credit crisis develops form  the cause.   While our Market Cash Flow index has showed market cash flow has turned negative,  the stock price indicators will not show the problem until one or two descending market highs.  So this is still a trading market with time for long term investors to get out of the stock market.  Is this accurate and infallible?  Absolutely not, anything is infallible!  But it provides a measure that gives one a period of time to reassess investments based on net cash flows computed from volume and price change data.  We expect head and shoulders sell stock price formation soon first for the DJI and then SandP.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI+Interactive#%7B%22range%22%3A%221y%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%7D

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC+Interactive#

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EIXIC+Interactive#

 

Oct 27   Our Market Cash Flow Index (MCF) remains in bear territory.  The American markets plummeted below their 200 day moving averages and now the 200dma has become their upward resistance level.  We expect another retreat below the 200dma at which time we believe there will be a short term buying opportunity.  If the Republican’s re-captured the Senate and grow in the House and Governorships we expect a year end rally.  But unfortunately Obama will still be there mucking up the economy for two years and we believe it will take at least a year, possibly even two years for the damaging effects of $4 Trillion in Quantitative Easing and Obama government interference and leadership damage to work their way out.  Remember, Obama had a hand in picking leaders at GM, banks and in the environmentalist areas of transportation and energy.  We expect corrupt corporate subsidizing of leftist run companies will get attacked and shut down in the next two years if Republicans win control of the Fed Legislature.  A pro-free enterprise, anti-corruption, anti-federal political domestic spying, and an anti-IRS harassing of conservative Americans, and a new pro equal pay for equal performance government will repair the damage that has been done these past 6 years.  

 

Once this current correction gains momentum, corporations will clean up their accounting practices and the correction will be shown to be justified by the truth about this dismal Obama leftist economy.  The length of stock market decline will depend on how long a bath is needed to rid the economy of it odor of city, state and federal employee featherbedding and fraud.  We will need a president like President Regan who told the unionized Air Traffic Controllers (some who had salaries as big as Congressmen) to go back to work or be fired.  We have lazy leftist idiots running the Washington government administrations and Americans will hopefully find out just what is what these next two years.  Leftist  American government administrators have overthrown foreign governments and replaced them with armed terrorist governments.   Leftist American government administrators have allowed terrorists to develop nuclear weapons.  Leftist American government administrators have put international socialist  ideals ahead of the health and safety of the free-world.  Leftist American government administrators have been destroying the American Economy and have undermined America as a power for peace and prosperity in the world.