Tuesday, May 5, 2015

May 8, 2015 U.S. wholesaler’s sales fell for an eighth straight month. Their inventory stockpiles rose another 0.1 percent following a 0.2 percent rise in February. Sales at the wholesale level fell 0.2 percent after an even bigger 0.6 percent drop in February. Sales have fallen every month since August. New hires rose this month coincidentally by the number it was reported deficient last month implying nothing changed. Yet investors desperately grabbed for every last straw. This news was all spun to be good news and stocks rose considerably. The DOW, NYSE, and the STD and Poors indices all came close to old highs but they have hit those levels many times in the past three to nine months. But the NASDAQ faltered and the Russell 2000 seems to have given up trying. The Obama administration continues to slowly poison the American economy and national morale. Now we are on alert for domestic Moslems conducting ISIS attacks, while thieves and thugs have taken to the street looting and the police everywhere are under attack and being depicted as criminals by this administration. Payrolls have remained stagnant for five years and that was also spun as positive.

Factory orders have decline to the worst recession lows yet Obama data manipulators say things are humming again.
 
Terrible earnings reports are coming out even with all the balance sheet contortions. Jim Crammer advises to just keep earnings up while revenue declines.  One of the largest wastes of money was the Alibaba IPO.  Wait until the cheap counterfeit junk hits the world markets and the law suits pile up and the regulators pile in.  Will they let you buy a genuine imitation Rolex watch for $30 as a special mark down?   How about selling the complete new version of Microsoft Office for a nifty $39.99.   These are the hot items China and Singapore sold in the past. The Communist Party already gave the boot to the honest and friendly Alibaba CEO who sold the Free World on the Alibaba IPO deal.  Now the “Party” runs the company.  Does that mean the Chinese Intelligence Agency will staff all the Free World Alibaba offices to tap into product developments so they can beat the competition to the patent offices?  The Japanese were very good at that too into the 1980’s and for a while produced twice the volume of patents as Americans.  Alibaba stock will take a huge tumble soon but it will come back in a few years because like Google it is here to stay for quite some time.  It will put many retail outlets out of business and cause massive layoffs from the American services sector. 
 
May 7, 2015  Master of stock market snake oil, Jim Cramer, yesterday criticized Janet Yellen for warning of another stock market bubble ready to collapse.   Yellen has not raised long term interest rates, but that is beginning to happen now on its own… naturally (see long term treasury rates rising over 3%).   That is because when the FED does nothing the economic forces take over and we lose control of our economy.  That is what is now starting.  Greenspan agrees with Yellen but as we predict, the mental midget Jim Cramer will not recognize this bubble collapse until the fall or at best this summer.  On March 6, 2015,  Greenspan recently said without a doubt stocks are overvalued.  That is far more ominous than the irrational exuberance reference he once made to the Dot Com bubble.  We fine tune our prediction now to say that before July 2015 the 65 Day moving averages of the major stock market indices will begin to roll over and show price topping has begun.
Consumer Credit tapped out at $20.5B in March.
Businesses added only 169,000 jobs in April. Economists had hoped for more than 200,000 new jobs to show the recession was slowing.   ADP also revised down its March report to 175,000 jobs from the previously announced 189,000 which showed the economy declining.  The GDP had already been revised down from 1.5% to just 0.2%.  However, it is expected they will drop it further so the next quarter will look like it is improving.  That is how Obama economists work.  The have claimed each quarter for the last five years that things were improving and then revised the earlier figures down so they had room to exaggerate the current economy.  They claim Americans are too stupid to know the difference and those who vote for the Stupid Party support their claim.  While most Americans who vote for the “Stupid Obama Party” are stupid and were lied too, the Democrats knew Americans were too smart to support their health care bill so they deceived Americans and promised things they knew were outright lies such as guaranteeing you could keep your own doctor.  And Pelosi was the worst.  She knew Gruber was telling lies and denied it and she was caught.
Today some fool gave the best reason ever for selling Tesla and several other high multiple stocks.  He said they were growth stocks because if they don’t grow the Earth will be destroyed by global warming.   It is the reason why AOL and other stocks were part of the biggest stock market bubble ending in February of 2000.   Only the reasoning of a fool can explain our current bubble prices.  And Jim Cramer is one who is on TV working because he continues to lose his shirt taking his own advice.
            All the GDP and other Stupid Party fabricated data that is put out there have no relation to the real world.  The data is intended to deflect criticism and deceive people who are stupid enough to believe them.  Americans know the Obama game has been to cut work week hours 25% from 40 to fewer than 30.  When that is achieved, if 5% are still unemployed it is really 5% plus 25% or effectively 30% unemployment compared to when 40 hours was the normal work week.   If Obama cuts the work week another 5% he could be out telling stupid Americans that there was close to zero unemployment and the Stupid Party voters would be glad to support him and Hilary.  Obama is using lower working hours to redistribute wealth.
 
May 6     This week, Q1 2015 GDP came in almost negative, at 0.2%.  Meanwhile, in the same quarter, both the Dow and Nasdaq reached new record highs.  It must be noted that the coincidence of essentially no economic growth and record stock performance is at once bizarre, unstable, and likely short lived.   What’s wrong with this economic picture?  See the report.
Lots of money flowed into bearish China ETF’s yesterday indicating China’s bull run is ending.
The top 25 hedge fund managers took $US11.62 billion off the top in compensation out of the pockets of small investors, more than their small investors made collectively the past six months.
Wells Fargo Bank employees have been charged with illegally opening unauthorized accounts for customers to meet unrealistic sales quotas. Wells Fargo is accused of opening up accounts and credit cards in customers' names without their authorization and then billing them.
 
May 5, 2015  Three of the five indices we follow have now had four or more failed attempts to break out over the last two to eight months.  The Russell 2000 may have given up now.  Only the NASDAQ continued to rise until it recently hit its 2000 bubble record.  For most indices they are near their highs of 2000 and 2007.  To believe it can go higher with the economic mismanagement of this administration would call for a lot of faith in technology and game theory.  We now have high speed trading that allows high speed traders to sell and buy microseconds ahead and after us of us and capture profits on every price change.  But they only redistribute our wealth to themselves, they do not create wealth.
The US Trade Balance Mar of -$51.4B was about 50% worse than February as the dollar strengthened.
Factory orders continue to plummet while the Jim Crammer con job continues to spin.
Labor costs continue to rise while output declines.
But Jim Cramer is that goat that leads the investors up the plank to the slaughter room. And he personally attacks and recommends the selling of the stock of any CEO’s who tells the truth.  Today he praised a CEO who raised the estimate of the value of his corporation’s “CONTENT” by 40% and boosted its profit projection banking the estimate at this current “Bubble Top.”  The Crammer report is as conjured and corrupt as it was in 2000 when under Clinton, AOL (the internet service) was a behemoth and Jim Cramer spouted valuations 1000% higher than they were one year later.  Once a liar always a liar because no one will buy stocks now unless the stock market snake charmers like Cramer don’t put on a good act.  If you tell the truth CNBC either cans you or sends you to FOX News.

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