Monday, July 20, 2015

July 24 2015 The next two weeks look to be a probable test period for the world stock market bubbles. It is a time to keep vigilant. When over-reactions occur in certain strong company stocks they create opportunities to buy. But as a bear market matures, usually it is better to sit it out until the final collapse. Normally a bear market recovers after a sharp sell off. But unless America elects a competent administration in 2016 this will likely go down as Obama’s Great Depression. Books will be written about the incompetence and corruption prevalent in the Stupid Party and others today.

If you have followed us you were primarily in cash and may have shorted some stocks already or have gone into a few bearish ETFs.  We do not make specific recommendations.  
          July 23, 2015    The world governments are in reflation mode, but it is obvious from the decline in commodity prices that reflation is failing and every major world economy is headed for depression mode instead on the horizon.  Reflation plus depression was the Weimar Republic’s and the Zimbabwe’s recipes for hyperinflation.  But that kind of disaster would require someone like a Hilary Clinton to accomplish.  Trump is the only one who apparently can cut through all the Clinton-Obama political bullshit.  But it will unfortunately take a crashing stock market before the majority listens to him.  
         Hilary Clinton is now off defending Planned Parenthood’s policy of selling aborted baby body parts to criminal doctors.  One Planned Parenthood doctor said on camera that there is a high demand for baby livers as she crunched on a salad and discussed her work experience “crunching” living fetuses.  Are the leaders of Planned Parenthood and their political supporters sick or what?  Hilary supports throwing away tax money on sick Planned Parenthood doctors even though Obama’s new law already pays for abortions.  So far Hilary still makes no sense at all but Bernie Sanders has come to her party’s rescue to set her straight.  So far, everyone who has attacked Donald Trump has done far greater damage to their own credibility than to his.  He started with nothing and has legally amassed one of the greatest individual world fortunes ever in spite of every political effort stop him all along the way.  His only failure has been his inability to teach others how to accomplish what he has done.  That is because other people give up too easily and Donald Trump does not.   Trump is not 99% bullshit like the current administration.

July 22, 2015    We warned months ago that the run up in stock prices in China were manipulated by the Communist government.  They gave up reporting accurate volume as well to make it more difficult to detect their fabricated stock values so that you could not tell that the price increase was not due to buying pressure.  Volume is essential to investing because if the price jumps 10% on a few communist government shares exchanged it is obvious the market is fixed.  In addition china’s ETF’s in the US began using fake volumes for the bull and bear ETF’s.  They went to a phony fixed ratio of volumes for YINN and Yang traded on May1, 2015 right after the Communists began their hyper-ridiculous-manipulation.  The manipulation is now so great it makes the Communist Party look ridiculous.  Buy communist party manipulated stocks at your own risk.  Russia is no better than China.
         Giant investment hedge fund Bridgewater Associates LP, has declared that China is no longer a safe place to invest.
         The socialist Japanese Toshiba Corp. accounting scandal is about padding pretax profit by at least $1.2 billion over six years.  All the top executives at the Japanese industrial conglomerate, which makes everything from faulty refrigerators to faulty nuclear reactors, apparently are in on it. Padding the books is how most socialist run companies get their stock prices to the current market bubble level but it is usually done legally making stupid but legal assumptions.  When the stock market collapses suddenly the executives get smart, sell their holdings and take the corporate losses to create at new bottom price so that they can buy back in low and restart padding of corporate income during the next bull market.  The socialists’ governments are so dumb the crooks go to the bank and never go to jail.
         Surprise-surprise!  Prices of homes are now higher than at any other time, including at the peak of the 2007 bubble just before the housing and stock market collapses.
         Beware again; the first downward leg of the new recession market could be very soon.  Early July is when much of the world goes on vacation and is oblivious to the news.  Declines in that period can be very steep and can be a buying opportunity if one gets out before the next decline.
 
        July 22, 2015    The Wall Street Journal today reported: the Chinese say that on July 7 they were only controlling only 96.8% (100-3.2% uncontrolled) of their stock prices in their market.  Otherwise it was a free market.  American housing is now being destabilized as it was in 2007 with low payment mortgages that kick in later.   Hackers have now demonstrated they can take control of self guided motor vehicles.  Hedge funds have introduced new ways to bet against markets when the stock market collapses that make more money than just directly shorting stocks.  These are all news today.
       Until now, when markets collapsed the US Treasury and FED never broke the buck as more socialist countries have at times.  But that can now happen if a major brokerage or other non-bank firms go bankrupt since they have limited insurance.
       We are approaching the most risky two weeks of the summer when major declines have occurred.  These declines happened twice during the Obama administration but are small compared to the next Obama economic decline we anticipate later this year.   We are now seeing corporations biting the bullet and honestly reporting recent sales/earnings declines instead of cooking their books and that is an indication that the stock market balance sheet bath is just beginning.  All the DOW indicators (stocks, rails, utilities) are in decline and only the fringe unproven/untested concept technology stocks have pushed higher.  That is the end game pattern for a bull market.  The FED is now actively trying to skinny down overextended banks.
 
       July 21, 2015   Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said that the new stress test goal is to force banks either to shrink or to hold substantially more capital to reduce risk of a meltdown.  The FED has assigned a higher capital holding requirement for larger banks.  It is evident the FED sees the imminent risk of a financial meltdown and depression not inflation.
        The new deal Obama gave Iran will Iranian their oil output this year increasing the pressure on the oil cartel to further lower prices.
Commodities are most vulnerable as currencies become volatile and recession and deflation hits the BRICS.
The DJI and DJR have joined the broadest NYSE market in beginning to roll over and decline.  Only the NASDAC, the most volatile index has hit new highs in recent months and it has the most hyped and manipulated earnings statement companies of all. 
IBM, the world's largest technology services company continued to see revenues fall for the 13th consecutive quarter.
       July 20, 2015   Just five days ago we warned that gold was still historically high in its multi decade cycle.  It peaked with both stupid party presidents Jimmy Carter and Hussein Obama.  Gold bugs know that political dunces throw hard earned money at everything and don’t understand how anyone makes an honest living.  Gold prices just plunged 4 percent to $1,088.05 an ounce their lowest in more than five years today as sellers in China dumped some of the metal.  India will soon start doing the same.  Gold could drop about 30% before it bottoms.   The Shanghai Gold Exchange volumes soared to a record.  It broke its support levels so there is more to follow.   Gold rises during inflation and plunges during recessions and the looming depression.  FDR blamed Herbert Hover for his Great Depression and Obama is still blaming Bush for Obama’s evolving Great Depression.  The sale of gold is a precursor to anticipated deflation or depression.
              Donald Trump is under attack from the establishment.  Senator McCain referred to Trumps 15000 person speech (to what included thousands of veterans in McCain’s home state) as a turnout of a bunch of "crazies."   Yes, McCain called veterans who voted for Senator McCain "crazies."   Trump responded that McCain may be a war hero but Trump prefers the “heroic heroes” because all combat veterans are probably as heroic as Senator John McCain.   Both politicians McCain and John Kerry were great heroes according to themselves but McCain had no witnesses.   John Kerry’s boasting of heroism was refuted in a book written by all the men who witnessed and served with him.   If every American would read John Kerry’s book about Vietnam they would throw this entire administration out.  Read what Kerry wrote that his co-soldiers did to Viet Cong nurses with dynamite sticks.   Then you will ask how could a person like Kerry be allowed to negotiate with enemies sworn to kill Americans?  So far the stupid party media has been doing its best to slander Donald Trump but it has helped Trump’s ratings soar.
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