September 1, 2015 The latest FBI email server dump of Hillary Clinton's server revealed 150 more documents flagged extremely serious handling of classified information. The FBI "A-team" is leading the investigation. This news comes on top of earlier FBI revelations that at least 300 classified documents passed through her private, email server, which intelligence officials are almost certain was easily hacked multiple times by Iran, Russia, China, ISIS, and others. At least two messages found in Clinton's system were already deemed top secret (the highest level of classification) when she received them. But it really does not matter whether a document was classified secret before or after Hilary Clinton read it. The server must be secure specifically because many documents are classified secret after they are received. Hilary Clinton even knew that all White House and foreign correspondences were classified even before they were stamped. Hillary Clinton is beginning to look stupid as well as corrupt. It is time for her to take her ill gotten gains and retire from politics. Hilary Clinton’s stupidity and corruption is a destabilizing force for the Obama administration and for confidence in the economy.

We do not expect an immediate second plunge of the stock market until at least next week.  Most investors do not recognize that the US economy has peaked and do not believe China can pull the US down.   We have a DJI floor of 15871 and other floors under the other averages that will not be broken today.  Too many investors still think the “stupid party” has turned the economy around and they do not understand that QE is what flooded the stock market with cash and it will take time for the market to lose all that cash.

            Walmart cut employee hours to save money and avoid Obama’s socialist health care program costs.  Their big ego socialist CEO favors forcing church marriages for NAMBLA members over freedom of religion.  He works for what has now become a corrupt crony capitalist company that avoids social responsibilities that decent and moral corporation boards insist upon.

          Construction spending finally reached the level it had during the Bush administration ten years ago in 2005.  The Obama administration has falsely claimed there has been a US economic recovery while blaming China and Europe currency moves for the flat lined data.  You have to be stupid to believe the stupid party.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=construction

         The pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector slowed in August to its weakest in over two years, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).   Its index of national factory activity fell to 51.1 from 52.7 the month before, marking the lowest reading in twenty seven months. The reading was lower than expected give all the Obama hype about his imaginary American recovery.

            August 31, 2015   When something sounds too good to be true, it usually is.  Funds, which typically promised low interest rates but safety amid turmoil, have mostly failed to deliver prompting investors to pull their money out.  These funds, grew rapidly in the face of growing fears of rising interest rates in 2013, but have lost 0.7 percent in the past month and 1.4 percent in the past year, according to Morningstar Inc. data.   As for reliable U.S. government bonds they a gained 0.2 percent during August, while stocks globally plunged 5.9 percent.

            This current rally will probably last another week.   We estimate there will be about four more bear market intervals with three as much as -15% each before a new bull market begins.   Suddenly most of the commentators are flip-flopping negative.  Jim Cramer has suddenly become very pessimistic and is doing his best to rationalize why he did not see a bear market coming.   Consumer sentiment is not as high now as it was when the last bear market began in 2007.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=consumer_sentiment

            In China the communists are now rounding up people who have negative views of the Chinese economy.  We who live in the free-world are so fortunate.   Like a field worker, when an economy works hard it perspires waste and gets filthy with waste.  It must take a pause for a bath, to rest, and to plan for another day.  Some make fatal errors and long for the days when everyone foraged each day and did not wear themselves out.  Corporations need to take a bath now.

            Bulls minus bears is approach zero meaning more people are still joining the sellers all the time so it is getting less likely any rally will be significant.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel

            It is unlikely that gold will begin to rebound for one or two years.  China and India have vast stockpiles to unload at higher prices.

            Developing countries are now suffering historic losses.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-31/junk-rating-dread-sends-brazil-stocks-to-biggest-slump-in-world

            August 28, 2015   We examined earlier rallies in bear markets typically they rise 5% to 7% over two to three weeks.  This however has been a relatively short but dramatic decline so investors may be inclined to think this first decline of the new bear market may not be over.  That is why the first rally in a bear market could last another week or two and not even wipe out the first decline.  In the mean time the Obama administration continues to release economic nonsense.  The FED must slightly raise their rates soon or lose all credibility because raising rates will allow them to reload their ammunition to fight recession.  Therefore the new economic optimistic nonsense of a 3.7% 2nd Quarter GDP rate should allow the FED to claim victory and raise rates just before the next leg of this bearish Stock market kicks in.

     Durable Orders Jul 2.0% fell -3.5% from 3.4% last month.

     Continuing Claims Aug rose to 2269K from 2254K

     Pending Home Sales Jul recovered 0.5% of the -1.8% loss last month but is still down 1.3% from May.

     Yet, GDP – The Second Estimate for Q2 was raised to +3.7% from +2.3%.  Therefore we predict the FED will act in September.  So far Quantitative Easing did little but make the rich richer and the poor and uneducated, poorer and more unemployable.  Nationalist Crony Capitalist Socialists and Communists have used work concentration camps that make slaves of the poor and lazy to punish that behavior.   Liberal national crony capitalist socialists encourage more fatherless families with their welfare system.  Socialism is gradually rotting America and the West morally and ethically.

            August 25, 2015   Yesterday the Dow was down 1000 points and today it was down another 200 after buyers got nervous again.  We estimate that all the money that went into the American stock markets since February 2, 2013 flowed back out in this past week.  That is based on our Market Cash Flow analysis.  But so far this panic gave a smaller percentage decline and smaller cash outflow than the panic in July of 2011.  And that will be exactly what many pundits will be saying in a few weeks when there will be a small rally.  But don’t believe them.  The coming rally may recover 50% to 75% of the decline and fool many investors.  But the short sellers will be out in force again and that small rally will likely be the only significant rally until sometime between January and April 2016. 

          When the current rally ends we expect the next new low that is hit this year will be the one when Jim Cramer and others say sell-sell-sell.  The current decline will quite likely be followed by three or four larger declines before the truth comes out that we are in another “Obama Recession.”  Of course Obama will blame it on someone else but everyone in the world knows this administration has been the most incompetent in American history and has shown no leadership and given no hope of continuing world peace.  Given another year in office Obama could even turn the recession into a depression or precipitate WWIII.  

            Today it became evident that Donald Trump’s message is getting stale and he is losing his audience after 15 minutes to boredom.  After 15 minutes most were not paying attention and many were talking to each other.  Trump is getting over exposed and needs more ideas or fewer national speeches.

         Alibaba has lost about half its market value since the IPO.  If China wants to truly advance and join the US and Europe they need to give Hong Kong their democratic self government back.  It is interesting and a very good sign that China has stopped building islands that encroach on the free international water channels.  The Chinese are wonderful people and have done well in America.  Perhaps this recent bad experience China has had manipulating their stock market will encourage their government to give self-determination back to Hong Kong!  Then China probably would not stagnate but would likely have the spirit necessary to be successful with free-enterprise economics.

           Obama does not have a Teflon coat and that is why he uses court orders to hide his past.   He seems to hate the American founding fathers and that tells a lot about his lack of intelligence and character.  Most Americans are just ignorant of our American foundation in laws but apparently Obama thinks the worst about the founders.  Obama acts like he doesn’t know that slavery and genocide are still rampant in Africa today.   Before 1830, during British slave trade, the tribes in Africa sold their neighboring tribal prisoners to the British instead of just decapitating them or burning them alive as many of their religion still do to their neighboring enemies today.  The British saved many Africans from certain death until 1830 when they stopped the trade.  Slavery in America was better than living in Africa and better than even living today in Africa, Syria or Pakistan as virtual religious slaves.  The “stupid party” members are mentally slaves and too ignorant to know how lucky we are to live in a free western country like America.   It is a failure of universities that are run by socialists.   They are still a minority in America and if we are going to continue our free-enterprise system of our founding fathers we must take back our country from the stupid party socialists in 2016.

            August 24, 2015   At the present moment many investors have come to realize a bear market is in place.  But mental conditioning has started again.  The DJI was down over 1000 points this morning scaring the pants off of investors but it recovered most of that already.   The options market was frozen early in the morning as margin calls wiped out many investors.  It is predictable that when this selloff is over many investors will be conditioned to think it was only a correction and the Bull market is still in place.  That will give the big funds another chance to unload more stocks and to go short.   But the run up this time will likely be perhaps only one to three weeks and the next selloff will be much longer and deeper.  Again it is likely that the broad NYSE will end down 60% to 90% off its high some time between February and April 2016.  Margin calls will increase.

            By noon this bear was already being downplayed as a flash crash or discounted as a capitulation.  DOW 19,000 this year was being forecast by Siegel and Jim Cramer got a statement from Tim Cook that Apple was having high sales in China so China must be doing well!  What, me worry?  Not mad men and Jim Cramer!  Tim Cook is the last person any intelligent person would listen to.  The people screaming about the FED raising rates are heavily in debt and will be wiped out.  Companies like Apple have used funds to buy back stock to reduce outstanding stock and fool investors into thinking they are sound because they reduced their PE ratio.  Once rates begin to rise the cost of debt is going to weigh down the stocks of incompetent CEO’s who have bought back their stocks and then need to borrow.

            Therefore, we could get a rally of many depressed stocks but we believe the Bull market’s death leap will be short and a dangerous play.   Any rally is a time to get out, not get in, unless you have an exit plan in place.  Even Put and Option trading froze up this morning.