5% of American commercial property is now entering default

Market forces June 11
The market advance since March has been strong but retracements in prior bear markets have been normal fare. Recommending a long position at this time is an irresponsible position to take for MSNBC/GE/Pravda stock tipsters. The current 900 level of the S&P is far ahead of itself and is unrealistic. The chart below shows that Jim Cramer is either lying or ignorant when he says everyone is bearish and it is time to buy stocks. The chart shows he is wrong on both counts.

http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_sent.htm

We are sellers now and will cherry pick back into the market near and below the S&P 800 level. Stocks should give back at least half their 33% advance even if this were a bull market. If we see the March low we would likely go 90% invested provided we had a buy signal from our Re-spiral/MACD indicators.
But we should not rule out even the 600 level for the S&P as a plausible low over the coming year. The debt burdens, the underwater debtors, rising interest rates, and the upward adjustable rate reset schedule leave considerable damage waiting to uncoil. Foreclosures are now ramping up quickly not just for homes but also commercial real estate where it now stands at a record 5%. Hence toxic assets continue to grow and the coming inflation has yet to destroy bank balance sheets by turning even 5% to 8% high interest loans into toxic assets. The St. Louis FED shows that Obama has thrown more money into the US money supply since his taking office than the previous total for all presidents in US history! This is pure insanity. His administration has lost control.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AMBNS

Obama will put limits on the wages of business executives but not the movie stars that fawn over him. Crime will likely explode in America as it has in Africa because Obama's administration thinks wealth in America is not distributed to the "right" people and the "right" people take that as a cue to go after hard working Americans. Obama is pumping millions into his ACORN organized crime cartel that specializes in census fraud, voter registration fraud, and intimidation of poll vote checkers for the obvious purpose of using election fraud to steal elections.

Yesterday the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a relatively new report for 2000-2009 that showed job openings for April at a record low 2,531,000. More significantly it showed more than five people unemployed for every job opening. Total unemployment will likely exceed 10% before the end of summer and will get much worse this year as American industrialists realize how irresponsible the socialist Obama administration and terrified FED have been.

Market Outlook
We go very far out on the limb to estimate that the current market rally has at most five business days of life remaining.

The socialist Obama administration has already inflated the money supply more than all previous American administrations since 1790. The Obama socialists plan to run a deficit that is five times higher than the previous highest deficit in human history and to leave future American generations with more debt than the previous accumulated debt of all nations in the history of the world.

On the positive side we believe the probability of a much deeper bear market breakdown is now relatively low and the bottom for the next years trading range probably is not much lower than 600 on the S&P. From here on we believe the market will be relatively flat in a + or - 20% (a 40% band) trading range until the economy weathers the final ravages of the Democrat-Socialist printing press. Some long-term investors who buy and hold will possibly become suicidal especially if they believe the socialist MSNBC/GE/Pravda propaganda.

We now reverse our former buy position on emerging markets and would now liquidate any investments in that area. We now have zero confidence in Red China, India or the emerging markets. For the most part socialist leaders become corrupt liars and their markets are shell games where the underlying assets are moved around to impress wide-eyed ignorant MSNBC/GE/Pravda socialist investment advisors.

We do not believe in Obama's socialism and all those who apparently hate American capitalism and feel compelled to apologize for American peace keeping efforts, technological creativity, human rights, and the most socially equitable society the world has produced to date.

Last night most Asian markets were down. China’s was down -0.7%, Hong Kong flat 0%, India down -0.4%, and Japan down -0.1%.

European markets are up today in a narrow range of 0.2% to 0.6% mid way through their day.

US futures indicate the American markets will be starting flat today. We could see a spike upward if weak handed bears capitulate. But a quick subsequent sell-off of up to 30% is becoming more probable now as investors realize this Obama crisis will get deeper and will last at least another one or two years. That means we are in a sideways moving market with a limited trading range. It is not a great place for buy and hold type investors.

The stock market historically rallies six months before the economy takes off, not six months before the economy begins a lengthy flat bottom like Japan had for 12 years. In a flat economy the stock markets normally trade in limited price ranges.