Tuesday, June 2, 2009

When will stock market bubble mania end?

Market forces June 2,
“Geithner knows nothing… he knows nothing,” so says Jim Cramer. And Bernacke looks like a puzzled doe staring into the headlights of an oncoming truck. Both appear to be clueless as to why Treasury note sales are declining. They think China and Japan are holding back because they are clueless to the economic hammering Asia is taking and will continue to take. China has seen a dramatic drop in exports and has tried to stem unemployment with a surge in infrastructure spending limiting the amount of surplus dollars that they have had in the past for purchasing US Treasury’s. This juggernaut is just beginning to be felt abroad because the second shoe is about to fall on Asian heads. Unemployment in the West is the last sector to recover because as people retire or are laid off the remaining American employees have to pick up their work. American productivity then begins to surge and American companies begin to cut back on outsourcing to Asia. The treasury will have to run the printing presses to support the record spending by corrupt ghetto socialists who confiscate and spend other people’s money.

The failure of outsourcing has become apparent. It works when the outsourcing is to India, China, and Ireland where the pay scales are lower. But then it becomes evident that poor communication makes even that non-productive so American firms bring the foreign nationals into the offices in America displacing Americans here. But then Asians demand higher pay and America is saddled with supporting them with social aide and eventually citizenship. Then they legally bring over ma, pa, grandma, grandpa and the whole family so the USA ends up paying about ten times as much for outsourcing as the company gains by doing the outsourcing. In addition the outsource employees learn American technology and then start new Chinese and Indian firms that begin to take business away from the American firms. Outsourcing is America’s most successful foreign aid program at the expense of American workers and technological leadership.


TV Gambling shows
MSNBC/GE/Pravda seems to run the biggest casino in the USA; the stock market. It would not be so bad if they were objective but obviously they are corrupt now.

How much do they get in cash for supporting the pumping and dumping of stocks at market tops?”

How much does Cramer get for deceiving investors by selectively presenting data? While today the home sales report for the nation will not be good, Jim Cramer will once again single out one or two states that have random good statistics this month and will claim they represent the trend in the nation as a whole. MSNBC/GE/Pravda should be investigated by the SEC.

How much kick-back does MSNBC/GE/Pravda get from the short seller attacks they support with their “They know nothing” emotional outbursts near market bottoms?

It is quite obvious that Jim Cramer and the rest hammer stocks when they are down and pump stocks to naïve investors when they are high in price.

MSNBC/Pravda does nothing to help provide good market data; they seem to support phony market volume data so that only massive firms that pay for advertising can afford to have good data.

Right now the American markets appear at their peaks which have equaled or come close to equaling their January peaks. Under normal circumstances that would bode well for the next market bottom being confirmed on the next market pull back. It is now not very likely that a new bear market low will be experienced during this recession. Still recovery is unlikely this year as this recession has not finished moving around the world.


Market Outlook

Yesterday pension plans and 401 plans carried the markets higher in the USA but volume remained below the running average for the one market that seems to have real volume data available to small investors if they know where to look (certainly not Yahoo). The lower than average volume yesterday was indicative of the end of a bear market rally. Some investors were fooled and drawn into a small bull trap at the high yesterday.

Our analysis does not change every other day as you typically see on the NBC/GE/Pravda network. A new ominous wrinkle may be the rise of interest rates that can delay economic recovery and lead to a premature socialist system bankruptcy. The treasury can monitor the bids for Treasury bonds and just exercise the low interest bids and silently print the rest of the money that is needed to buy the remaining Treasury bonds. That makes the auction look successful but in fact we are just running the money press like they do in Zimbabwe. With real interest rates set close to zero… just a 1% rise in rates can triple the cost of national debt. Already mortgage rates are rising and low rates are essential for resolving the crisis of toxic assets.

Last night Asian markets were flat. China’s was up 0.1% Hong Kong down 2.7%, India. up 0.2%, and Japan up 0.3 %. China has seen a dramatic drop in exports and has tried to stem unemployment with a surge in infrastructure work limiting the amount of surplus that they had in the past for treasuries.

European markets are flat today in the range of 0% to -0.5% mid way through their day. Europe is beginning to feel the effects of the recession.

US futures indicate the markets will start flat today.

The only question is how this rally will end. Will it go out with first a spike up or down or will we slide lower into the summer doldrums. It used to be “Sell in May then go away.”

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