Monday, November 22, 2010

Obama fiddles while American economy falters. Obama's first priority is to get sexual deviates into the US military.

Obama fiddles while American economy falters. Obama's first priority is to get sexual deviates into the US military instead of extending tax cuts to get new private sector jobs created. Once it is legalized, outing them will be grounds for dismissing straight soldiers. Obama's civil trials of terrorists resulted in the dismissal of 99.5% of the charges of the first terrorist. The terrorist probably has already served more time than is needed for parole for his 20-year sentence. Remember that tele-evangelist (Tammy Fay's husband) who got a 40 year sentence for running a time share condominium that went bankrupt (1990's)? Preachers get 40 years prison while terrorists get 20 years and Obama's predator friends like George Soros run free.


Finally after two years Obama begins to investigate. But he cares more about Wall Street insider information in stocks not the leftists who continually raid the corporation till. Leftists do not take personal responsibility because they think that is governments job. Capitalists like Steve Jobs, and Bill Gates get high salaries only when they grow their companies and employ more people. Then when they die they create foundations to give their money away. Leftist Obama socialist executives like Brian Moynihan and GM CEOs can be expected to raid the corporate treasury as we have seen them do since 2007 when they endorsed Obama and as their profits went on the skids. Socialists steal from shareholders even when times are tough. Obama protection is why none of the thieves have gone to jail and they continue to steal even as the economy goes down.

Presidents Ronald Reagan and Bush Sr. put 1072 corrupt leftist bankers in jail during the last banking crisis. There has been much more bank corruption under corrupt leftist Charlie Rangel's Senate. Rangel himself is a leftist crook and was convicted yesterday on 11 counts of corruption in the US Senate. Racist leftist Rangel required that minorities of his and Obama's race not be asked about their ability to make their mortgage payments but many banks are now being sued for that leftist racist practice. In the mean time leftist have taken no criminal actions against leftist Rangel or the corrupt leftist bankers and corrupt racist leftist Freddie Mack administrator who lied and cheated investors in the mortgage derivatives fiasco. Leftist Obama has still not arrested the thousands of corrupt leftist banking and investment managers who created the derivative market meltdown in 2008 by giving mortgages to thousands of people of Obama's race who had no visible means of even supporting themselves. Leftist equals = racist favoritism = equals corruption.


World Markets:

Phony bail-out
Ireland accepted loans from the EU now to prevent a run on their banks. The banks that Ireland owes are the banks bailing out Ireland. In other words the world banks that Ireland owes are now loaning Ireland more money so Ireland can make payments on their earlier loans. This is fraud because it is deceit in that it does not solve the problem it makes it worse. It is like giving someone with no means of support a loan to make payments on a home mortgage so the bank can hide the fact that the mortgage is now worthless. Socialists think that kind of redistribution of wealth is the purpose of banking and that profits for shareholders are evil. Socialist CEOs also rob the till to keep those evil profits lower and donate more to Obama.

Last week an American reporter was gunned down in California as she was driving. That is the first such homicide this year. Nine Russian reporters were beaten to death so far this year. The latest had his head, hands and legs crushed with a baseball bat and has not regained consciousness. The Russian government is also continuing to prosecute another reporter who has had his skull crushed because local politicians accused him of slander. The prosecution now amounts to nothing less than persecution of his entire family. The Chinese consumer advocate who complained when his son was poisoned by Chinese milk supplements was sentenced to two years in prison for the crime of reporting the problem. The sentence amounts to persecution of his entire family now. This is where international socialism leads. This is where national gangster socialism leads. Hitler and Stalin were Socialists too. All socialist dictators employ much more genocide than banana republic dictators do. Western socialists are only free now because the USA rescued them from Hitler and Communism. The socialists including Obama are now working hard to make America a socialist state too.

QE2 seems to drive bond values lower. It may be the last straw for the bond market bubble that was based on falling rates.

Economic Calendar
Last Friday
Initial Claims 11/13 439K up from 435K even as Obama moved 8K from this week to last week as good communists always do to give favorable peoples news. Otherwise this wee the Peoples Socialist Republic of America would have reported new claims at 447K up 12K or 3% from last week… not good.
Continuing Claims 11/06 were at 4295K down from 4301K last week as more American give up and join the welfare state and live on the dole.
Leading Indicators Oct were up 0.5% after being up 0.3% last month. This was driven by the stock market recovery after the defeat of the Socialist-Democrats the first week of November.
Philadelphia Fed Nov- The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from a reading of 1.0 in October to 22.5 in November. This is the highest reading in the index since last December. Indexes for new orders and shipments also improved this month. Indexes for both delivery times and un-filled orders changed from negative to positive this month, suggesting improvement. However, grow rate slowed.

This Week
Nov 22 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q3

Nov 23 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q3
Nov 23 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Oct
Nov 23 2:00 PM Minutes of FOMC Meeting Nov 3

Nov 24 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications 11/19
Nov 24 8:30 AM Personal Income Oct
Nov 24 8:30 AM Personal Spending Oct
Nov 24 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Oct
Nov 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders Oct
Nov 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex transportation Oct
Nov 24 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/20
Nov 24 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/13
Nov 24 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Nov
Nov 24 10:00 AM New Home Sales Oct
Nov 24 10:00 AM FHFA Home Price Index (q/q) Q3
Nov 24 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/20
Nov 24 2:00 PM Minutes of FOMC Meeting Nov 3

Market Outlook Nov 22, 2010
We expect Gold and Silver prices to drop to their highs of last year and form a new base at that level. Remember that after the run-up last year the gold prices dropped to previous lows and advisors predicted gold would be flat for five to ten years. We are a little more optimistic and believe last year's lows will not be seen again for about fifteen years. Remember that gold dropped 75% when Ronald Reagan got inflation under control. So far we have not even begun to see hints of inflation. Commodities like crude oil were $140/barrel just two years ago and are now at about $84/barrel. That $140 was reached when the world was at a record growth rate and American was roaring ahead with only 4.5% unemployment. We may not see that again for 15 years.

There is much ballyhoo speculation that American consumers are now ready to buy more this Christmas season. We have not seen any evidence yet. We think we are in a 1970s type period of lateral market movement in a +- 10% band. We expect spot shortages in commodities because inventories are kept very low. It is possible the shortages will prompt earlier shopping and fewer discounts. Then the prediction of higher consumption this Xmas could be self-fulfilling if consumers think stores will run out.

Currently we think we are closer to the top than to the bottom of the stock market trend line. If you ignore market cash flows the stock market tells chartists that we are at a critical juncture. We slightly exceeded the previous high for the year and fell back to the previous high and held there this week. Therefore they are hoping for a solid advance of 3% or 4% that would indicate another bull market in stock prices to their way of thinking. We on the other hand weight the price index with the volume index and see market's new high is still 6% lower than its last high on a cash flow basis. In fact we see that when we consider cash flows, the previous high in April 2010 topped out at the level of the high at the end of 2009. Therefore it would take a 6.4% run-up to get to the previous highs of both last December and April and for us to say a bull market even has a chance to start. So from our viewpoint buying or selling short at this juncture is pure speculation with the sellers having market cash flows on their side. Even commodity prices could falter as China reigns in inflation as it did in 2008 when the commodity markets collapsed. We also have five EU countries and six American states ready to collapse if this recession lasts much longer or a crisis occurs.

It would be a bad idea to naked short commodities even though they just peaked. We expect the FED to be successful and for core price inflation to begin this year. We would buy at cyclic lows and be wary of shorting the market other than to balance out alpha trades where quality is bought and weak companies in the same sector are sold short.

World Markets
Asian markets were up last night after the recent plunge. China's market was down -0.2%, Hong Kong down -0.4%, India market up 1.9%, and Japan up 0.9%.

European markets are mixed this morning in a range of about -0.4% to +0.2% about half way through their day.

US pre-market futures were flat about -0.1% at 8:30 AM EST.

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