Thursday, February 10, 2011

The hedge funds will sell precious metals and commodities all at once and within a week of the peak they will be completely out and the little investo

The hedge funds will sell precious metals and commodities all at once and within a week of the peak they will be completely out and the little investors will lose again to MSNBC corruption. GE/MSNBC/Pravda's Jim Cramer told his listeners to sell after the Flash Crash and all the way down to the bottom and half way back up. He said that there were five reasons not to buy stocks when they were at the low. Then as small investors sold out his hedge fund buddies bought in at the low. Then when the market was half way up he told investors to buy stocks again. After twenty weeks of selling, small investors got back in about five weeks ago. The market began to top and all he does is lie and he says how foolishly bearish the pundits are when this period has in fact been the most bullish period of pundit advice in the last two years. GE/MSNBC/Pravda's Jim Cramer is obviously in some kind of kickback fraud scheme with some hedge funds. We will see if the hedge funds now bail out.

Treasuries rose with a stellar sale of 10-year Treasury notes and as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled the Fed will continue to support the economy, which is still struggling with deflation. Manipulated stronger administration statistics and market manipulators spreading fears about inflation to get commodity prices even higher had pulled down Treasury note prices over the last week. Elevated demand at the 10-year auction is a reminder that there is a demand for low-risk U.S. Treasuries at the right price as investors remain cautious about the pace of the global economic recovery. Bernanke said in testimony before the House Budget Committee that it will be several years until U.S. employment normalizes, and acknowledged that inflation in the U.S. is still too low to sustain recovery. Japan has now had twenty years of economic recession and seldom has been able to push inflation above 1%. The inflation rate set by the FED that is needed for a full recovery is just 2.5%. The market got a further lift Wednesday afternoon when the government's $24 billion 10-year auction was met with especially strong interest from investors, calming worries caused by hedge fund manipulators that have make $billions driving up commodity and precious metal prices by buying futures and causing a price runup that has no basis in any demand for the commodities. Their game only works if they can keep prices rising and foolish small investors buying in. But once the peak has passed the hedge funds sell all at once and within a week they are completely out and the little investors lose everything.

Virginia Socialist-Democrat Senator James Webb said Wednesday he will not seek re-election next year.

Studies show some drugs exacerbate loss of brain tissue and frequent visits to the emergency room causes a higher probability of contracting a debilitating disease. It has just been reported that the Anti-psychotic drugs from AstraZeneca Plc and Johnson & Johnson used for schizophrenia destroys brain tissue so that the patients seem to be getting calmer but actually are just slowly becoming brain dead.

U.S. home values have begun broadly declining again since last summer. Home values fell 2.6% in the third quarter…the most since the first quarter of 2009. According to Zillow, negative equity rose to 27 percent of all single-family homes with mortgages. That means: more than one in four Americans with a mortgage are underwater. That's pretty grim.

World Markets:
 Euro weakens as German factory orders fall more than economists estimated business trends
 The Austrian carbon registry said allowances illegally transferred from the country have been frozen in accounts in Sweden and Liechtenstein and there is no risk they will be traded on the market.
 Recently independent Southern Sudan's rural development minister, Jimmy Milla, assassinated.
 China leaves deposit rate below inflation pace meaning they will have more inflation yet China's Yuan reached a 17-Year high due to trade balance surplus.
 Obama escalates Egypt’s political crisis throwing Hosni Mubarak’s government into disarray in favor of the Islamist terrorist Brotherhood.
 Metals fell the most in two weeks on concern that higher interest rates will crimp growth and slow commodity demand in China, the world’s biggest metals consumer.


This week past
Consumer Credit Dec shot up $6.1B from a seasonally adjusted $1.3B increase the previous month.

Feb 9 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 02/04 plunged -5.5% after rising 11.3% in January.
Feb 9 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 02/05-- Oil declined in New York Wednesday after an Energy Department report showed that U.S. crude stockpiles rose for a fourth week and fuel inventories climbed again by almost 2M barrels.


Today
Feb 10 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/05
Feb 10 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/29
Feb 10 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Dec -
Feb 10 2:00 PM Treasury Budget

This week future
Feb 11 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Feb

Market Outlook Feb 10, 2011

Treasuries rise on speculation Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will reaffirm the central bank’s commitment to keeping interest rates low. Falling emerging market stock markets stoke demand for the safest assets.

Yes, the highs have not been this high since 2008 but the average volume is only 40% of what we saw in 2008. The market is illiquid considering that QE2 is flooding the stock market hedge funds. It is unlikely the FED will have a QE3 and QE2 ends in three months just when state and Federal layoffs rise.

Once again, on a cash flow basis this top is no higher than the 2010 top and is not yet a buy signal. All the cash that flowed out since the May 2010 Flash Crash has now gone back into the market yet the market is up 9% since then due to market price pumping and hedge funds no longer on the short side. That is why we would wait for a substantial correction. The hedge funds will likely start shorting the market soon and all that money could be removed very quickly. But the Tea Party may just be the best thing that has happened to the economy and could bring optimism back to the economy.

We would be prepared to buy stocks on the next significant dip. Flow into mutual funds from individual investors was down for twenty weeks following the flash crash last May 2010. For the past three weeks of January small investors got in right back in at the highs of the current rally. This means the end of each month probably will see an increase fund flow as 401 plans put money back into the market.

Precious metals, oil, and "rare earths" are just the beginning. Obama and his socialists are in the ozone and are clueless to what is going on. Obama fell for the "big oil ploy" and has shut down all offshore oil and all natural gas production. Obama socialists are so stupid they actually believes his socialist theoreticians who are telling him that these high prices will get American to buy electric cars. They are destroying the world economy by causing shortages that drive up prices. Jimmy Carter did the same stupid thing and Ronald Reagan turned the economy around on a dime when he introduced supply side stimulation. Instead Obama is giving us supply side strangulation.


World Markets
Asian markets down again last night. China's holiday up 1.6%, Hong Kong down -2%, India closed, Jakarta down -1.3%, Seoul down -1.8%, and Japan down -0.1%,

European markets are down this morning in a range of about -0.4% to -0.8% half way through their day.

US pre-market futures are down about -0.5 % at 9:00 AM EST.

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