Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Oil over $100 a barrel today has the same economic impact as oil over $140 was in 2008 according to EU Ministers of Finance.

Oil over $100 a barrel today has the same economic impact as oil over $140 was in 2008 according to Ministers of Finance. Libyan oil helps Europe avoid dependency on Russian ex-USSR gangster governments.

Chairman Ben Bernanke said Friday that unbalanced flows of money between nations are again posing a risk to the global economy and financial stability. Bernanke's unorthodox $600 billion bond buying initiative launched in November has stirred harsh criticism from conservative Americans and countries around the world, and he has used international meetings to defend it before. But this current market is an asset bubble to all financial markets causing the unwise investment in weak equities markets. U.S. quantitative easing measures have been attacked for hurting emerging economy exports and inflating stock markets into dangerous asset bubbles ready to implode.

Imagine that…last week the SEC admitted they currently have no order audit trail to catch the socialist George Soros type equity market manipulators who grow rich buying, inflating, selling, and then imploding the free markets that they seek to destroy.

How to balance the USA budget:
1. NASA should be cut sharply so they learn to get out of politics and go back to real science. NASA has been taken over by the hysterical environmentalists and the junk science product of our be-happy schools were 40% of the Obama be-happy kids drop out.
2. State, city, teachers, and security workers should not be allowed to have unions just as they did not have unions until the beatniks of the late 1960's. The USA had an excellent school system before 1970 and had no immigration problem from be-happy banana republics until the 1960-70 drug culture took over US education.

Current market manipulation could aid American left wing efforts to kill free enterprise and American freedoms. No honest American of good character would discredit America's economic freedom by corruptly manipulating financial markets. Only socialists and communists believe in corrupting and manipulating free markets.

On February 14 MSNBC/Pravda's Jim Crammer officially pointed out and explicitly warned investors on at the start of the show that current evaluations have no basis in real economics. He said they are now based on imagination, the dreams of what could be. He admitted the economic and corporate news has been banal and disappointing. That was one week ago and then he ignore his own honest statement and continued tell people to buy. When the market plunges he will now lie and say he warned people a week in advance when in fact he did tat just one of the last 100 days of his show.

This is a bubble and a crash could is immanent. Flash crashes are caused by fund managers using collected investor data to exploit the buy and stop limits people have set. If they are about to pop a stock bubble they first buy the stock and trigger all near-by small-investor limit buy orders. That causes many stop limit sell orders to be reset higher. Then in rapid succession the manipulators begin massive selling of all the holdings of the target stock triggering a flash crash. Then later they slowly buy near the lows and up until the stock is almost fairly valued. Then they can repeat the process or they can find another stock to manipulate.

World Markets this week:
The world wide socialist "be happy" stimulation package has rewarded only the world's "be happy" people and an economic depression threat is growing again. We must stop throwing money down the "be happy" toilet bowl. Unionized teachers in Wisconsin are an American disgrace just as bad as the Greek union gangsters and should all be fired the way Reagan fired striking air traffic controllers who shut down airports. We need to stop making "tax slaves" out of people who have a work ethic. Government does not create real jobs it creates "pretend jobs" to pay off "be happy" people who come out at demonstrations.

US Economy
Obama needs to stop meddling. He can't lead and he won't follow. Obama should just help America and get out of the way. Obama should let the new Republicans restore confidence to America by resigning now.

A stock market crash is immanent.

Recent past
MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 02/04 plunged -5.5% last week.
Mortgage Purchase Index 02/11 -9.5% plunging further than last -5.5%

 Treasury Budget deficits pending rate increased to -$49.8B each week to -42.6B this week. Money down the bowl to ACORN, permanent lazy "just be happy" socialists, government workers and unions.
 Retail Sales Jan 0.3% drop in half from 0.6%. That is on top of the normal seasonal decline in January and serious.
 Business Inventories Dec 0.8% up from 0.2% which is dangerous because it says we are manufacturing more than we can sell already.
 Producer Price Index in Jan was 9.6% annually and was 13% annually last month… both very high inflation rates.
 AM Crude Inventories 02/12 declined to 0.9M from 1.9M barrels this week.
 Initial Claims 02/12 410K terribly high and worse than last weeks 383K
 Continuing Claims 02/05 3911K rose again from 3888K even after many are no longer being listed after their 99 weeks unemployment are up.
 The FED minutes said QE2 would continue. The Congress may cut those FED powers after the 2012 elections.

This week:
Feb 22 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Dec
Feb 22 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Feb
Feb 23 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 02/18
Feb 23 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 02/18 -
Feb 23 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Jan
Feb 24 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/19
Feb 24 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 02/12
Feb 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders Jan
Feb 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders ex Transportation Jan
Feb 24 10:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Dec
Feb 24 10:00 AM New Home Sales Jan
Feb 24 11:00 AM Crude Inventories 02/19
Feb 25 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q4 -
Feb 25 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q4
Feb 25 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Feb

Market Outlook Feb 22, 2011
Last Friday the SEC will announce plans to prevent another flash crash (plan to use daily limit up and down moves like the futures market). This will not go into effect for a while. Currently even naked trading is allowed with no audit trails. They propose that at some future time they will also have audit trails. Imagine that…today the SEC will admit they currently have no audit trail to catch the socialist George Soros type manipulators who grow rich manipulating the free markets they seek to destroy.

Watch out, volume dropped a record (40% lower) beginning last Wednesday-Friday as the market topped out. The coming implosion could be big and bad, perhaps as much as 2000 points in the DOW. Until yesterday, the NYSE was the only exchange that reported real stock market volume statistics. A 1% to 2% price drop at this point is all that is needed to trigger a worldwide implosion.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^nya;range=1y;indicator=ema(50,20)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

The stock market stands now only approximately a 1 to 2% decline away from triggering a panic as big as 1987's. It would last at least a whole day and orders would be delayed several minutes as they were on May 6, 2010 or for hours as they were much of the first day of the 1987 panic. Look at the 20 and 50 day moving averages through the NYSE data and see the risk. About half the losses would be in the first two days. Then there we expect a bull trap rally the recovers half the losses over a few days. Then there we expect the full decline could take a few more weeks.

We are prepared to buy stocks on the next significant decline.

World Markets
Asian markets were down sharply last night. China down -2.6%, Hong Kong down -2.1%, Taiwan down -1.9%, and Japan down -1.8%,

European markets are down sharply this morning in a range of about -0.4% to -1.5% half way through their day.

US pre-market futures are down about -0.4 % to -0.8% at 7:30 AM EST.

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