Thursday, January 12, 2012

A consolidation would be in order soon and then probably another advance.

Philipp Hildebrand the head of the Swiss Central Bank was caught using information so his wife could speculate as George Soros does on foreign currencies. Swiss central bank supervisory council member Gerold Buehrer said Philipp Hildebrand’s replacement, as president should be don now, suggesting the government’s hiring is too slow.

Was Corzine just another socialist looter of American private enterprise working to raise money for Obama? Is it another Solyndra case of the DNC pretending to be an investor but a looter instead? Montana farmers who claim he stole their money have now sued Jon Corzine; former chief executive officer of collapsed commodity brokerage MF Global Holdings Ltd., for fraud. Is this money trail going to lead to Obama? Obama and Barney Frank looted Fannie and Freddie with the requirement that they accept Liar loans. That is about $50Billion that cannot be traced, that has simply disappeared in the hands of socialist looters. That is all George Soros does for a living. He is an unabashed looter preying most of the time on weak currencies of Socialist countries. That is why socialist Gorge loves socialism. It is so easy to loot! That is because the socialist’s government commissars are all morons.

World markets
China seems to be near their bottom now so if the USA looks like it will throw out Obama then after the current USA rally we will likely have another buying rally the likely it will end on about election day.

Asian markets (especially China) care failing to break out some on the second and third times at resistance levels.
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

Germany is showing strength: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

The Swiss are showing strength. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Emerging markets show strength.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine

American Economy
This Past Week
Consumer Credit Nov was up $20.4Bin November… a tremendous spending spree that was three times as much new debt as the $7.6B in October. This monthly measure of consumer debt is volatile and subject to massive revisions. When the change is too good it actually is bad for the following month or two. While we can expect very good retail sales reports now, it means consumers will be strapped for a few months, and worried about tax season coming up.
Wholesale Inventories Nov 0.1% still increasing but not as bad as last months 1.6%
MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 01/07 rose sharply +4.5% from last month’s -3.7% good housing news
Crude Inventories 01/07 4.958M increased over 2.209M Yet pump prices are increasing as is crude oil

Today
Jan 12 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/07
Jan 12 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 12/31
Jan 12 8:30 AM Retail Sales Dec
Jan 12 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Dec
Jan 12 10:00 AM Business Inventories Nov
Jan 12 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Dec
This Week
Jan 13 8:30 AM Trade Balance Nov
Jan 13 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Dec
Jan 13 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Dec
Jan 13 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Jan

Market outlook January 12, 2012
A consolidation would be in order soon and then perhaps another advance. But the EU is still a problem. Obama military cutbacks could put an end to the slight improvements of this past quarter.

The NYSE MACD is definitely bullish and implies we could see the bull market last until November 2012. You can also see the down side cross over occurred in May-June of 2011 in plenty of time to get out of the stock market. The upside cross over came in mid October in time to catch the last dip and the rally. But you can see that most stocks have not recovered yet.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=macd

Now Obama and Holden are suing the banks for the money the racist liars lost when the housing market collapsed all because the racist liars defaulted on the houses they purchased with liar loans and no source of income to make mortgage payments.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits_and_construction

When it comes to jobs, Obama has to manipulate the government statistics just like all communists do to pretend things are better. Sales are up because consumers have been refinancing at lower rate and dropping their monthly expenses. That improvement can only last a couple months http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment

The VIX has is approaching 20 which would indicate complacency. That means the coming exuberant rally will be a good time to take profits and raise cash.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

We predict we could possibly have as much as 95% stock market recovery. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up. Also, remember January was very good last year and the market went down significantly afterwards so January is not necessarily a good predictor for the year. View 1yr. See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart4:symbol=^nya;range=1y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Bulk shipments still at less than 20% of the bulk trade level that existed before Obama declared the USA was in a depression in one of his 2007-2008 campaign speeches. It is also slipping again.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Stock market update:
Asian Stock markets fell last night. China down -0.5%, Hong Kong down -0.3%, India down -0.9%, and Japan down -0.7%

European markets are mixed today in a range –0.3% to +1.1% with Italy a continuing downside outlier half way through their day.

American market futures are up +0.3% in after hour trading at 9 AM EST. We expect the last leg up of this interim rally will continue but erratically. Bull markets creep up and then the Hedge funds chop off their heads.

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