World trade “Bulk Shipments” have collapsed to the lowest world bulk trade level that existed since Obama declared the USA was in a depression

World trade “Bulk Shipments” have collapsed to the lowest world bulk trade level that existed since Obama declared the USA was in a depression in one of his 2007-2008 campaign speeches. China’s stocks could fall 50% from here if Obama’s announced “Great Depression” spreads to China. Danger is now immanent.


Thorsten Heins is the new CEO of RIM. He joined RIMM four years ago from Siemens AG. RIMM has dropped 80% from its high and sales have dropped over 90%.

Gingrich won the primary in S. Carolina but will be out of politics for good after this run because he took $1,600,000 in fees from Freddie and Fannie the Obama-Holden liar loan mortgage firms that put all the private mortgage firms out of business and caused the Obama Depression.

World markets
Germany, Switzerland and Brazil have broken their 200 DMA resistance levels. It remains to be seen if they can remain above that level.

Solar stocks plunged around the world after Obama’s Solyndra supply side production disaster evolved. Now Germany, recently the largest market for panels, said it will cut subsidized rates and phase out demand side support for the industry.

The World Bank cut its forecast for global growth including China, by the most in three years to 2.5%

George Soros wants Europe to steal $500Billion of IMF funds from developing countries to buy his European damaged debt, which will face default later. The Europeans have displaced America which started the IMF with American money and was originally intended to help developing countries. Bankrupt socialist states and socialist George Soros see it as another “elephant” to eat to stay afloat a little longer at the expense of the undeveloped world. Socialists live by the “law of the jungle.”

We expect the markets will all form head-and-shoulder sell signals after breaking their 200 DMA.
Asian markets (especially China) are failing to break out some on the second and third times at resistance levels. China’s stocks could fall 50% from here if Obama’s announced “Great Depression” spreads there too.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=000001.SS&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=e200%2Ce100&a=&c=

Germany broke through the resistance levels: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

The Swiss broke through the resistance levels. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Emerging markets show strength. Brazil broke through
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

American Economy

Last weeks reports
Empire Manufacturing Index up Jan to 13.5 from December’s 9.5 and shows manufacturing still doing well. Chinese goods are seeing sharp price rises as China’s wages get better for their workers.
MBA Mortgage Index 01/14 jumped to 23.1% from +4.5% Time to sell
MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 01/14 - NA
PPI Dec -0.1% dropped from 0.3%
Core PPI Dec 0.3% increased from 0.1% That is 3.6% core inflation which is much higher than the fed limit of 2.5%.
Net Long-Term TIC Flows Nov increased to $59.8B from $4.8B indicating foreign money China) may have been responsible for this rise in American stock prices.
Industrial Production Dec 0.4% much improved from -0.2% last month.
Capacity Utilization Dec 78.1% up from 77.8%
NAHB Housing Market Index Jan 25 up from 21 time to sell American housing stocks as they temporarily peak and buy again at lows. Obama is still giving his folks liar loans.
Initial Claims 01/14 352K down from 399K Socialist lie
Continuing Claims 01/07 3432K down from 3628K Socialist lie
Core CPI Dec NA from 0.0% - Socialist deceit
CPI Dec 0.0% 0.0%
Core CPI Dec 0.1% down from 0.2% Socialist lie
CPI Dec - NA from 0.2% - Socialist deceit
Housing Starts Dec 657K down from 685K bad news
Building Permits Dec 679K down from 681K bad news
Philadelphia Fed Jan 7.3 down from 10.3 bad news
Crude Inventories 01/14 -3.438M down from 4.958M bad news
Existing Home Sales Dec 4.61M up from 4.42M

This Week
Jan 25 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 01/21 - NA NA 23.1% -
Jan 25 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Dec - -3.0% -3.0% 7.3% -
Jan 25 10:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Nov - NA NA -0.2% -
Jan 25 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 01/21 - NA NA -3.438M -
Jan 25 12:30 PM FOMC Rate Decision Jan - 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% -
Jan 26 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/21 - 375K 375K 352K -
Jan 26 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/14 - 3550K 3550K 3432K -
Jan 26 8:30 AM Durable Orders Dec - 3.0% 2.0% 3.7% 3.8%
Jan 26 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Auto Dec - 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% -
Jan 26 10:00 AM New Home Sales Dec - 310K 322K 315K -
Jan 26 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Dec - 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% -
Jan 27 8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv. Q4 - NA NA 2.6% -
Jan 27 8:30 AM GDP-Adv. Q4 - 3.2% 3.1% 1.8% -
Jan 27 8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv. Q4 - 0.7% 1.5% 2.6% -
Jan 27 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Jan

Market outlook January 23, 2012
World trade has now virtually collapsed.
We expect the markets will all form head-and-shoulder sell signals now.
The money thrown at alternate energy was part of the Obama vote buying and redistribution plan. The euphoria at this moment is totally due to the stock market recovery that we predict will end soon. The advance is now hitting its 200 DMA resistance level. Even if it breaks through as we expect markets will peak within the month, as euphoria seems to be near a high point. Because spending has accelerated the bankruptcy threat increases. The IMF was created and run by the USA to help developing countries. Now it is being taken over by socialists who will steal $500Billion from the developing countries. The proposed $500Billion theft of IMF funds by Europe Socialist will help bail out socialist George Soros.

The NYSE MACD is still bullish and implies we could see the bull market last until summer 2012. The upside cross over came in mid October in time to catch the last dip and the rally. But you can see that most stocks have not recovered yet.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=macd

The VIX indicates extreme complacency now. A sharp computer sell-off could end the current rally any time now and trigger stop-losses with huge losses. When a computer sell-off occurs the stop losses execute too slow compared to the high-speed computer execution of orders.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

We predict we are near the end of this stock market recovery. The downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Bulk shipments have collapsed to the lowest world bulk trade level that existed since Obama declared the USA was in a depression in one of his 2007-2008 campaign speeches. It is now less than 7% of the international trade that existed just before Obama was elected. This means China and India could now enter the Obama depression.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Stock market update:
Asian Stock markets were flat last night. China closed, Hong Kong closed, India up 0.0%, and Japan down 0%

European markets are up today in a range +0% to 1% half way through their day.

American market futures are up about 0.4% in after hour trading at 9 AM EST. We are near the end of this rally now. We estimate the peak soon in a head-and-shoulders sell signal. The best news for American and world economies and markets would be for Obama to decide not to run so that the Democrats can have a competent candidate not a socialist fool running. Senator Obama created his Great Depression when he announced it during his campaign and then Senator Dodd leaked secret Banking Committee information that caused the run on the first bank for Obama. Only a world class idiot would raise the specter of a Great Depression to get himself elected.