Apple’s stock price will crumble over the next two quarters. Actually Apple had its best quarter last year and this latest great quarter is hype

Apple’s stock price will crumble over the next two quarters. Actually Apple had its best quarter last year and this latest great quarter is hype because it comes from analysts not comparing this product introductory quarter with the introduction quarter last year. If they did a valid comparison they would see Apple profits peaked last year and their latest product is not doing as well as last year’s introduction.

Jon Voight; with the following truths, may have just hurt his career.
http://www.staged.com/video?v=x4u

Obama claimed America failed. Some times he blames his depression on Bush and sometimes he blames it on free enterprise.  All Obama can do is blame others and dissipate American’s prosperity.

Representative Barney Frank, in an exit interview to New York magazine suggested that President Barack Obama “underestimated, as did Clinton, the sensitivity of people” to government intrusion and regulation of their lives, health, and liberty.

They showed a BBC program Tuesday that claims Detroit is in that situation and is now burning. There is so much arson now in Detroit that the firemen are unable to keep up and are risking their lives. Several had camera’s mounted to their hats recording the dangerous situation in Detroit.

The latest Rasmussen Poll 4-26-2012 reports that Romney is holding his lead over Obama. In a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup, presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney earns 49% of the vote, while President Obama attracts support from 44%. Fifty percent (50%) believe increased government regulation leads to less fairness. 66% believe that most government contracts are awarded to those with political connections rather than to those who provide the best service at the best price. Republicans continue to enjoy a three-point advantage over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot to take the Senate and House in 2012. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

World market this week
Italy’s short term borrowing costs jumped 58% (1.772, up from 1.119 percent interest) at the sale of 8.5 billion euros ($11.3 billion) of six-month bills as renewed concern about the spread of the region’s debt crisis forced the Treasury to offer higher rates to attract investors. Stock market tumbles.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said balanced budgets are the best answer to the debt crisis, rebuffing French Socialist presidential candidate Francois Hollande’s campaign pledge to reverse Europe’s drive to get spending under control.

Approximately 63% of Chinese companies that have reported 1st quarter earnings so far, have reported declining profits or losses due to slowing economic growth. In America it is roughly the same but earnings estimates have been dropped so much that about 60% of American companies are exceeding the lowered expectations.

Renewable Energy Corp ASA, Europe’s second-largest polysilicon producer, is closing its second factory in five weeks. These industries cannot turn a profit with current technology. They require a 90% production cost reduction before green energy will be successful. Ninety three percent of current systems require major repairs within ten years and get no subsidies for the repairs. People then just have the systems ripped out. This false hope has been subsidized on and off since Jimmy Carter in the 1970’s. Only the young and poorly educated do not know what a big scam Obama’s green corruption and dissipation policies are.

The deepening recession reduced trade by 80% causing Germany’s Container Flotten- Fonds to file for bankruptcy. More than 1,000 investors who had been promised annual returns of as much as 15 percent instead lost.

Britain’s budget deficit unexpectedly widened in March, intensifying pressure on Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne to keep squeezing spending.

French Socialist presidential candidate Francois Hollande’s made a campaign pledge to reverse Europe’s budgeting and German business sense creating tension between the EU’s strong and weak economies. “Europe can’t just impose austerity,” Hollande said today. “it’s only a burden or pressure unbearable for people.”

Euro-area services and manufacturing output declined for the third month in a row to a five-month low as the economy struggled to rebound from the sharp fourth-quarter contraction.

Manufacturing shrank in both Europe and China. The Euro weakened and the cost of insuring the region’s debt rose after the Dutch government has fallen to socialists and French President Nicolas Sarkozy lost ground to socialists in elections.

Italy’s confidence index declined to 89 from 96.3 in March hitting the lowest level since the series began in 1996.

China Mobile Ltd. (941), the world’s fastest growing and biggest phone carrier by users, fell the most in more than six months in Hong Kong trading after the company reported profit fell 3 percent.

China continues to threaten an invasion of unoccupied Philippine islands. N. Korea is threatening to attack S Korean targets and incinerate them for not properly worshiping N. Korean leaders.

Most national stock markets are on one, five and twelve-year head-and-shoulders sell areas. Germany’s market is losing steam. To see the megatrend look back to 1995.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#symbol=^gdaxi;range=my;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

The Swiss are still lower than last year’s high with a mega-trend decline. Choose max years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#symbol=^ssmi;range=my;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

China has been declining for more than a year now. Chinese inflation data disappointed, with March consumer price index rising 3.6%. If the economic output grew 8% and inflation grew 3.6% that means real growth in China has declined to 4.4%.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#symbol=000001.ss;range=my;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;



Emerging markets are still lower than last year’s high and look like a head and shoulder sell signal.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EMERV+Interactive#symbol=^merv;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

American Economy

Apple profits more than doubled again year to year but was flat quarter to quarter. That means the entire increase was due to the new product launched at the end of 2011 and while large it was a step change, not a trend change. Unless an equally popular product is launched later this year Apple stock will fall off the cliff by the end of this year.

Case-Shiller 20-city Index Feb down –3.5% vs down -3.8% last month correcting for 0.2% manipulation potential.

Consumer Confidence Apr 69.2 down from 70.2

New Home Sales Mar 328K down from 353K

FHFA Housing Price Index Feb down -0.2% because it borrowed 0.5% from last month to shift after the last announcement to this month. Again it is inconsistent month to month Obama manipulation.

Yesterday

MBA Mortgage Index 04/21 -3.8% down sharply from 6.9%

Durable Orders Mar -4.2% fell sharply from 2.4%

Durable Goods -ex Transportation Mar -1.1% fell sharply from 1.8%

Crude Inventories 04/21 3.978M not improved from 3.856M

FOMC Rate Decision Apr 0.25%, no change

Today

Apr 26 8:30 AM Initial Claims 04/21

Apr 26 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 04/14

Apr 26 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Mar

This week

Apr 27 8:30 AM GDP-Adv. Q1

Apr 27 8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv. Q1

Apr 27 8:30 AM Employment Cost Index Q1

Apr 27 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final

Market outlook April 26, 2012

The markets are increasingly erratic. The VIX is low but rising, a sign of at least some additional selling pressure.

The markets are nowhere near this year’s high much less last rear’s high. Volume increased on the declines indicating net selling (no accumulation going on). The small investor has been taking profits. This market is made by machines now not by humans. The machines are trying to make money speculating on human behavior that no longer affects the market in the short run.

Still no DOW rail confirmation means there still is no DOW buy signal since the collapse in August of 2011. It is looking like a head and shoulder sell signal forming in the Rails. We are a few days away from a complete breakdown of the market.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^djt;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

On a quarterly cycle basis (look at 6 months), the New York Stock exchange second neckline was confirmed being broken on the down side. If a new high is not reached within a month the second shoulder of the head-and-shoulder sell signal will be set. Breakdown will occur rapidly if the lower neckline is then broken.

On an annual cycle basis (look at 2009 to today) it appears the head and shoulders is already in place and the market is about to break down for that mini cycle. On an economic business cycle basis (up to 20 + years) it shows the economy peaked in early 2000 and began to decline during the Clinton administration. Only if we can get rid of the “big government moron Obama socialists” this year… will we begin another 20year free enterprise booming business cycle.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=1y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The VIX is loosing its predictive power as market manipulators learn how to manipulate it. A sharp computer sell-off could end the current rally any moment now and trigger huge stop-losses.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Baltic Dry Index is still languishing..

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Stock market update:

Asian Stock markets were mixed last night. China down 0.1%, Hong Kong up 0.8%, India down –0.1%, Taiwan down –0.6%, and Japan flat lined 0%.

European markets are down today in a range of 0.1% to -0.8% half way through their day.
American market futures are down about 0.1% in after hour trading at 7:30 AM EST.

We warned early last week that Apple earnings took a step change in the latest quarter and it is not a trend change improvement. They have compared this new product introduction quarter to a normal quarter last year not the new product introduction quarter last year. The earnings this new product quarter were less that the best quarter last year. Apple profits peaked last year! They are already in decline when you compare apples to apples!