Monday, August 20, 2012

There are some politicians running for president and vice president who stupidly say the American economic system of free enterprise and competitive pay for performance (capitalism) has failed. They apparently never learned that our financial system has failed quite regularly and for many different reasons. In fact our regular economic meltdowns are the result of the business cycle which consists of prodigious prosperity punctuated periodically by panics and economic depressions. Panics typically have caused many of what we today call recessions. But there were also five depressions by most accounting since 1783 from which the United States of America recovered completely. Yet for 230 years the United States of America has always recovered and has never defaulted. No modern nation even comes close to our record. So how come candidates Obama and Biden are so stupid not to know this.


Isn’t there anyone in their socialist-democratic party who knows this? Could it be Obama and Biden know it but are lying to the American people? Here are facts:
1 The new American nation had faced a depression during the American Revolution in the late 1780s. Approximately 25% of our population were loyalists who left America and the exodus contributed to the first depression after the American Revolution.
2 A severe economic downturn 1797-99 followed the Panic of 1797.
3 The Panic of 1819 marked the end of the economic expansion that had followed the War of 1812.
4 Panic and Depression 1832
5 Depression 1837-1843 6 years
6 The Panic of 1857
7 Panic and Depression 1869-1871
8 The Panic of 1873
In 1882 Karl Marx finally declared capitalism (our type of free enterprise economy) officially dead and said it would be supplanted by international socialism (communism). The USA was too busy then to listen to him.
9 The Panic of 1893
10 The Panic of 1901-Free market failed again!
11 Herbert Hover Black Friday Panic 1929 and FDR Depression of 1933-1941 ending with FDR's death (8 years).   Socialist FDR blamed President Hover for the FDR Great Depression.
12 Economic malaise, stagflation, and recession 1978-1983
13 Dot Com Meltdown recession 1999-2000 and 911 attack in 2001
14 Senate Dodd-Frank-Obama mortgage scandal caused by requiring mortgages be given (no questions asked) to people without any visible means of support. Obama has continued this practice. It was followed by foreclosures and a subsequent mortgage derivative meltdown in 2008 that triggered bank failures and the Obama Great Depression 2008-2012. FDR was a socialist and he caused a depression after the stock market panic that Hoover had nothing to do with. Likewise Obama took his Senate Liar Loan Derivatives panic and converted it into a full-blown socialist depression and then blamed President Bush.
Yet, in spite of Obama, our American system compares very favorably with socialist Western European countries that normally have at least twice the American unemployment level punctuated by the same world financial panics and depressions that we have… except often much worse. For instance the understated official unemployment in Spain seldom is as low as 8% and today it is over 20%. If the Senate Banking Commission socialist corruption of America’s mortgage system had not triggered the 2008 panic, the sovereign debt problems of the European Union probably would have created the financial panic by now. In fact economists have studies that trace this boom and bust cycle throughout written history. Boom and bust cycles occurred with every type of government and economy known to man and even a communist country like China was able to recently temporarily end its perpetual communist economic depression with a little liberty, pay for performance, and free enterprise.
Our system compares especially well with the socialism of the old USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) which existed for fifty years in a perpetual state of depression during which 80 million of their citizens were put to death by their government. Even so, there are some current day politicians who apparently agree with Communist Karl Marx that capitalism (American Free Enterprise) is now dead. Obama and Biden are on the record as saying free enterprise has never worked. Just how could Americans have elected politicians so stupid and filled with hatred of America as to say something like that which is so disloyal to their adopted country. Unlike Obama, most American immigrants came to America to get away from their old native system of government. Obama was raised in Nigeria and Indonesia and he still thinks their Islamic Socialism is better than American free enterprise democracy.

There are starting to be reports that the new Obama IRS is either dishonest or incompetent. This could come out in the election campaign that the 20 thousand people the IRS is hiring are untrained Socialist Democrat stooges intent on harassing people who actually work for a living. In the name of truth and transparency it is time for the Democrats to change their party name to Democrat Socialist Idiots. If you are worried your view of America the beautiful is a minority view then read the Cable TV news ratings. There you will see that Fox Network News is often more watched than all the other cable news channels combined. There is one semi-hopeless socialist idiot on FNC at 5PM and another semi-hopeless socialist idiot later but they are representative of all Democrat Socialist Idiots needed for fair network representation.
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/08/16/cable-news-ratings-for-wednesday-august-15-2012/145107/

The Obama Campaign has even infiltrated the Nuns in Albany NY. Visitors are dismayed to hear relatives in Catholic housing facilities saying they will vote for Obama because the nuns told them Mitt Romney will take away their social security and Medicare. When told the nuns are telling them a lie and asked if they knew the Pope was trying to prevent Obama from fining and shutting down their Catholic hospital because the hospital refuses to give trimester abortions… their mothers and aunts say "No the nuns never told me that." Of course the Catholic Church is fighting the socialist takeover and bankruptcy of Catholic hospitals. But socialist nuns do not support the Pope’s attempt to keep politics out of the Christian Church. In Red China the Communist Government runs all the legal churches. The socialist/communist gay and abortion rights groups now control the largest synods in America. The ELCA, Anglicans, Methodists, Episcopalians are run by socialists now and they have started infiltrating all the fundamentalist churches in America. Christian Americans have very few places to go that teach Christianity and not democrat-socialism. If the nuns in Albany NY were campaigning for Mitt Romney there would be a federal investigation and attack ads saying Romney was illegally using the Catholic Church. But if you are a socialist supporter of Obama it is OK for Catholic nuns to tell lies about Mitt Romney. Anything goes if you support Obama socialism.
Japan vehicle sales will drop as much as 20 percent next quarter as the Japanese subsidies expire.

Facebook last week unlocked, the first of five insider sale restrictions scheduled during its first year as a public company. Facebook shares fell to a record low after insiders could sell 271.1 million shares for the first time since the initial public offering. Facebook will face five tim
have created the financial panic by now. In fact economists have studies that trace this boom and bust cycle throughout written history. Boom and bust cycles occurred with every type of government and economy known to man and even a communist country like China was able to recently temporarily end its perpetual communist economic depression with a little liberty, pay for performance, and free enterprise.

Our system compares especially well with the socialism of the old USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) which existed for fifty years in a perpetual state of depression during which 80 million of their citizens were put to death by their government. Even so, there are some current day politicians who apparently agree with Communist Karl Marx that capitalism (American Free Enterprise) is now dead. Obama and Biden are on the record as saying free enterprise has never worked. Just how could Americans have elected politicians so stupid and filled with hatred of America as to say something like that which is so disloyal to their adopted country. Unlike Obama, most American immigrants came to America to get away from their old native system of government. Obama was raised in Nigeria and Indonesia and he still thinks their Islamic Socialism is better than American free enterprise democracy.

There are starting to be reports that the new Obama IRS is either dishonest or incompetent. This could come out in the election campaign that the 20 thousand people the IRS is hiring are untrained Socialist Democrat stooges intent on harassing people who actually work for a living. In the name of truth and transparency it is time for the Democrats to change their party name to Democrat Socialist Idiots. If you are worried your view of America the beautiful is a minority view then read the Cable TV news ratings. There you will see that Fox Network News is often more watched than all the other cable news channels combined. There is one semi-hopeless socialist idiot on FNC at 5PM and another semi-hopeless socialist idiot later but they are representative of all Democrat Socialist Idiots needed for fair network representation.
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/08/16/cable-news-ratings-for-wednesday-august-15-2012/145107/

The Obama Campaign has even infiltrated the Nuns in Albany NY. Visitors are dismayed to hear relatives in Catholic housing facilities saying they will vote for Obama because the nuns told them Mitt Romney will take away their social es that pressure when another 1.44 billion shares are freed up through November.
Barnes & Noble Inc. euphoria has evaporated as it becomes clear that Microsoft is not interested in them and the largest U.S. bookstore chain will continue to struggle to avoid the fate of the music and movie stores.
Treasuries fell, extending a four- week decline, after Der Spiegel magazine reported the European Central Bank is considering a plan to use the Obama’s quantatative easing Ponzi scheme to cap on euro-area bond yields to contain the debt crisis. But Germany disputes the report.
Lowe’s the second-largest U.S. home-improvement retailer, reported net income dropped 10 percent. Chief Executive Officer Robert Niblock is cutting more than 500 jobs this year after Lowes closed 27 U.S. stores and canceled plans for new locations. HomeDepot stores clearly have been quite empty too so it is hard to understand where their housing industry optimism comes from. As long as the socialists maintain liar loans and Fannie and Freddie’s big salaries for Obama socialist appointees the housing depression will continue.
Once Obama adopted the Japanese failed QE policy he put America on a socialist disaster course that caused a 65% collapse in the Japanese stock marker and began the perpetual depression that socialism eventually brings to every nation that resorts to socialism.

The Rasmussen Reports Romney 45%, Obama 43%. 56% of Americans favor repeal of ObamaScare
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

World market this week
Germany’s largest utilities are shunning cleaner-burning natural gas because it’s more costly, while the collapsing cost of carbon permits means there’s little penalty for burning coal. Wind and solar projects, central to Germany’s plans to reduce nuclear energy and cut the release of heat- trapping gases, can’t produce electricity around the clock.
Average asking prices in England and Wales fell a record 2.4 percent from July, when values declined 1.7 percent, the operator of Britain’s biggest property website said in London Monday.
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, who set the nation’s first inflation goal six months ago to halt a decade-long quantitative easing struggle with deflation, has failed to produce the inflation craved by exporters.
Protests erupted in China and Hong Kong over the weekend as Japanese activists landed on an island in the East China Sea claimed by both countries, intensifying a dispute between Asia’s two biggest economies.
China’s stocks fell to the lowest level this month after real-estate prices rose in the largest number of cities in 14 months.

Emerging markets will continue to suffer unless Obama is given the heave-ho. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine

Emerging market composite indicates it is breaking down through the lows.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPTSE+Interactive#symbol=^gsptse;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;


German stocks are faltering below the recent high that is now close to the March level which is still below the high of 2011 and 2012: Choose 2 or 5 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

The Swiss Market is testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year. It is at a new high for 2012 but below the 2011 high.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
The market is testing recent highs on weak volume. The S&P and the NYSE and the DOW Rails all failed to break old highs and failed to reverse their existing sell signals. The recent market rally was due to hedge funds unwinding bets against European stocks at the fastest pace in three years, speculating that European socialist policy makers will join the Obama debt Ponzi scheme to increase debt. That means the hedge funds have stopped buying stocks to cover their shorts and are ready to short again.
The VIX is showing that a bear market is highly probable now and the VIX will have a long way to go up until the VIX is above 30 where bear markets normally end.
Last Week
Retail Sales Jul 0.8% up from -0.5% great weather
Retail Sales ex-auto Jul 0.8% up from -0.4% very good
PPI Jul 0.3% up from 0.1% a 3.6% inflation rate not good. The Fed wants no more than 2.5% annual inflation
Core PPI Jul 0.4% up from 0.2% a 4.8% core inflation rate means the fed cannot relax money supply more.
Business Inventories Jun 0.1% still increasing 0.3% not good because that means too many workers so less hiring
Yesterday
MBA Mortgage Index 08/11 -4.5% down sharply again -1.8%
CPI Jul 0.0% 0.0% Prices and gasoline much higher than reported
Core CPI Jul 0.1% Obama manipulation 0.2% Prices and gasoline much higher than reported
Empire Manufacturing Aug -5.9 down sharply 7.4 terrible news for NY
Net long-term TIC Flows Jun $9.3B down from $55.0B means foreign investment in the US is plummeting
Industrial Production Jul 0.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4%
Capacity Utilization Jul 79.3% 79.4% 79.3% 78.9% -
NAHB Housing Market Index Aug 37 35 35 35 -
Crude Inventories 08/11 -3.699M shortages -3.729M prices rising
Today
Initial unemployment Claims 08/11 366K up from 361K
Continuing Claims 08/04 3305K down slightly from 3332K
Housing Starts Jul 746K down from 760K
Building Permits Jul 812K up from 755K
Philadelphia Fed Aug -7.1 manufacturing still contracting -12.9
This week
Mich Sentiment Aug 73.6 turned up from 72.3
Leading Indicators Jul 0.4% rose with the stockmarket from -0.3%

This Week
Aug 21 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes 7/31
Aug 22 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 08/18
Aug 22 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Jul
Aug 22 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 08/18
Aug 23 8:30 AM Initial Claims 08/18
Aug 23 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 08/11
Aug 23 10:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Jun
Aug 23 10:00 AM New Home Sales Jul
Aug 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders Jul
Aug 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Transportation

Market outlook August 20, 2012
Americans need to give the Democrat Socialists the boot out of all federal offices if the Obama Greatest Depression Ever on Earth is going to be stopped. There has to be a limit on the maximum permissible Federal/State/Local Government’s spending percentage of the GDP.

This is the quiet before the storm with the VIX under 14 and extreme complacency. Most of Europe takes all of August as a vacation so it is a lost month every year.

People forget that the DJI is not by itself the famous stock market indicator. The DJR must confirm the DJI for there to be a buy signal or sell signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. The DJI is the last "safe" place bulls go to reduce risk before the entire stock market collapses. Therefore the DJI is biased bullish and needs the DJR for balance. The DJ Rails continues to say sell even as people seek the false security of the DJ Industrials. The Divergence you see is the classic symptom of the Dow theory bull’s trap.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=6m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
12,000 Federal workers are reported getting government pensions exceeding $100,000/yr for life.
The NYSE is much more representative of the US economy than are the DOW indices. Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. It shows that Obama may be taking America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
The market sell signal is also seen in 3-month market cyclic data. Notice that yesterday wasn’t even a breakout.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
The NASDAQ is near its march level now.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=QQQ+Interactive#symbol=qqq;range=my;compare=;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
The VIX is showing that a bear market is highly probable now and will have a long way to go up until the VIX is above 30 where bear markets normally end.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The Baltic Dry Index says world trade is plunging toward a depression low. Clearly Obama Solyndra corruption and gangster fast and furious socialism and Obama’s Goldman Sachs crony capitalism will only end in further collapse of production, collapse of small businesses and then the round up of the hated 2%.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Stock market update:
Asian markets were down last night. China down –0.4.1%, Hong Kong down –0.1.7%, India closed, Singapore closed, S. Korea down –0.1%, Taiwan down –0.5%, Japan up 0.1%.
European markets are down half way through their day in a range of 0% to -0.7%.
American market futures are flat at about 0% in after-hour trading at 7:30 AM EST. This indicator does not statistically correlate with anything.

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