This is the quiet before the storm. Obama socialist manipulation of economic data is apparent again. Inflation is being hidden and the world just cut investing (TIC flows) in the USA by 80% last month. This could force the FED to intervene again to keep interest rates low because the Chinese and others are hesitant to buy more Obama-Holden-Bernanke debt. The Obama Ponzi scheme called Quantitative Easing was meant to supplement foreign investment not replace it. By Obama bidding against the Chinese the idea is to get China to accept close no zero interest rates. It appears the Chinese are going to reduce or stop buying US Treasuries until interest rates rise. This will cause a crisis and a disaster to American bondholders because rates will stop falling and rise. The stock markets tested earlier highs last week and fizzled out once again. This is the calm before the storm for the stock market. The market is overbought and the shorts have all covered. The VIX must rise above 22 before the market can get back to normal.

Paul Ryan and Barach Obama have become rivals only Ryan is far more knowledgeable and intelligent. In addition Ryan is a USA citizen and people actually remember going to school with him when he was young. Columbia and Harvard students wonder why they never saw Obama there and they were in the same department and classes he says he was in. Also there is not one Columbia or Harvard University group photo with Obama in it. Then people could confirm that he was a real student not someone who only exists on paper. There is not one single real student from Columbia or Harvard who have come forward to say they saw Obama attending there.

Obama rallies are 75% empty and Paul Ryan’s rallies have 50% overflow crowds and Paul Ryan has to go outside to address them. The socialist press corps complained yesterday they could not keep up with him and he should not have left them inside when he addressed the outside crown. The outside crowd told the liberal press to "GO TO HELL."

MSNBC Squawk Box said Thursday that the next Apple release has been delayed and will be out after the competition hits the market.
Goldman invested in Knight just before the trading system failed trying to fleece small investors and caught some big mean hedge funds that quickly turned on Knight.
Angie’s List Inc., the consumer- review website that went public in November, plunged 16% to a record low after lockup was lifted on stock sales for some of the company’s biggest investors.
Stocks: Global concerns grip investors
Groupon shares dive 14% on revenue misses
Hedge funds are reducing investments after longest-ever rally in commodities.
Japan’s atomic power industry lost a record $46 billion since the Fukushima tsunami and meltdown last year, wiping out seven years of profit. Then came the bad news that they will be broken up and reduce dividends.
Facebook Inc. (FB)’s stock plunge has already cost Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) most of the potential gain they could have unlocked when the ban on insiders’ sales begins to lift.
The end of the insiders’ sales ban only puts additional pressure on the stock price. Goldman Sachs (GS), which now has a stake worth about $900 million risks further losses. Obama has forgiven Sachs because they made a generous campaign contribution.
Google Plans to cut 4,000 jobs or 20 percent of the staff at Motorola which it bought for about $12.5 billion.
The racist Muslim Brotherhood grows in influence across North Africa with the assistance of the Obama administration undermining former moderates.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Mitt Romney at 47%dead heat with Obama stuck at 43%. Confidence in the U.S. job market has fallen again, with the highest number of Americans in 10 months describing the employment situation as worse than it was a year ago. The generic Congressional Ballot shows Republicans taking 42%, Democrats 39%. 56% of Americans favor repeal of ObamaScare
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

World market this week
Oliveira an unemployed homeowner encapsulates a growing trend in debt crisis- stricken Europe as household gold supplies dry up after record prices and a deepening recession prompted a proliferation of places to exchange the gold for money.
The Britain’s Olympics was a boost to their economy last month even though the socialist British politicians mocked Americans. American socialists do not like the fact they were born in America so they enjoyed themselves. Transportation system socialist unions created such a mess in London that the stadiums were half empty the first few days.
The Czech economy extended its decline and Hungary returned to a recession in the second quarter as government budget cuts sapped domestic demand and the euro-area crisis weakened exports and both GDPs declined 1.2% year to year.
Egypt’s index CMA.CA dropped 99.96% yesterday as the Terrorist Brotherhood removed the highest-ranking Army officers.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CMA.CA
China’s stock investors are wondering how China’s stock market (which touts exceptionally outstanding economic growth rates and claiming companies continuing to generate handsome profits), has tumbled more than 38% in the span of three years. China appears to be heading into a recession. While domestic consumption had saved the economy for almost a year it is declining and exports are plummeting due to the extremely pore quality products such as air conditioners that fail in one year.
Hong Kong’s government cut its estimate for the city’s expansion this year after the economy grew 1.1 percent. The trade dependent economy risks further deterioration this quarter after China reported July export growth slumped to a grinding to a halt, leading to inventory surpluses over 2.5 times the standard amount, according to China’s Automobile Dealers Association.
Emerging markets will continue to suffer unless Obama is given the heave-ho. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine

Emerging market composite indicates it is breaking down through the lows.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPTSE+Interactive#symbol=^gsptse;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
German stocks are faltering below the recent high that is well below the March level which is well below the high of 2012: Choose 2 or 5 years. The DAX can’t even keep up with the DJI!
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

The Swiss Market is testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year. It is at a new high for 2012 but well below the 2011 high.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
　
American Economy
The S&P and the NYSE and the DOW Rails all failed to break old highs and their existing sell signals. The recent market rally was due to hedge funds unwinding bets against European stocks at the fastest pace in three years, speculating that European socialist policy makers will join the Obama debt Ponzi scheme to increase debt. That means the hedge funds have stopped buying stocks to cover their shorts and are ready to short again.
The VIX is showing that a bear market is highly probable now and the VIX will have a long way to go up until the VIX is above 30 where bear markets normally end.

Retail Sales Jul 0.8% up from -0.5% great weather
Retail Sales ex-auto Jul 0.8% up from -0.4% very good
PPI Jul 0.3% up from 0.1% a 3.6% inflation rate not good. The Fed wants no more than 2.5% annual inflation
Core PPI Jul 0.4% up from 0.2% a 4.8% core inflation rate means the fed cannot relax money supply more.
Business Inventories Jun 0.1% still increasing 0.3% not good because that means too many workers so less hiring
Yesterday
MBA Mortgage Index 08/11 -4.5% down sharply again -1.8%
CPI Jul 0.0% 0.0% Prices and gasoline much higher than reported
Core CPI Jul 0.1% Obama manipulation 0.2% Prices and gasoline much higher than reported
Empire Manufacturing Aug -5.9 down sharply 7.4 terrible news for NY
Net long-term TIC Flows Jun $9.3B down from $55.0B means foreign investment in the US is plummeting
Industrial Production Jul 0.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4%
Capacity Utilization Jul 79.3% 79.4% 79.3% 78.9% -
NAHB Housing Market Index Aug 37 35 35 35 -
Crude Inventories 08/11 -3.699M shortages -3.729M prices rising
Today
Aug 16 8:30 AM Initial Claims 08/11
Aug 16 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 08/04
Aug 16 8:30 AM Housing Starts Jul
Aug 16 8:30 AM Building Permits Jul
Aug 16 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Aug
This week
Aug 17 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Aug
Aug 17 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Jul

Market outlook August 16, 2012
This is the quiet before the storm. Obama socialist manipulation of economic data is apparent again. Inflation is being hidden and the world just cut investing (TIC flows) in the USA by 80% last month. This could force the FED to intervene again to keep interest rates low because the Chinese and others are hesitant to buy more Obama-Holden-Bernanke debt. The Obama Ponzi scheme called Quantitative Easing was meant to supplement foreign investment not replace it. By Obama bidding against the Chinese the idea is to get China to accept close no zero interest rates. It appears the Chinese are going to reduce or stop buying US Treasuries until interest rates rise. This will cause a crisis and a disaster to American bondholders because rates will stop falling and rise. The stock markets tested earlier highs last week and fizzled out once again. This is the calm before the storm for the stock market. The market is overbought and the shorts have all covered. The VIX must rise above 22 before the market can get back to normal.

People forget that the DJI is not by itself the famous stock market indicator. The DJR must confirm the DJI for there to be a buy signal or sell signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. The DJI is the last "safe" place bulls go to reduce risk before the entire stock market collapses. Therefore the DJI is biased bullish and needs the DJR for balance. The DJ Rails continues to say sell even as people seek the false security of the DJ Industrials. The Divergence you see is the classic symptom of the Dow theory bull’s trap.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=6m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
12,000 Federal workers are reported getting government pensions exceeding $100,000/yr for life.
The NYSE is much more representative of the US economy than are the DOW indices. Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. It shows that Obama may be taking America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
The market sell signal is also seen in 3-month market cyclic data. Notice that yesterday wasn’t even a breakout.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
The VIX is showing that a bear market is highly probable now and will have a long way to go up until the VIX is above 30 where bear markets normally end.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The Baltic Dry Index says world trade is plunging toward a depression low. Clearly Obama Solyndra corruption and gangster fast and furious socialism and Obama’s Goldman Sachs crony capitalism will only end in further collapse of production, collapse of small businesses and then the round up of the hated 2%.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Stock market update:
Asian markets were mixed last night. China down – 0.3%, Hong Kong down – 0.5%, India down – 0.4%, Singapore up 0.1%
European markets today are mixed half way through their day in a range of –0.4% to +0.5%.
American market futures are flat at about 0.1% in after-hour trading at 8 AM EST. This indicator does not statistically correlate with anything.