Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Sept 13, 2013 JP Morgan said Friday it will spend another $1.5 Billion per year just to handle the current administration's new regulations and investigations. This administration has put the American economy into the standard socialist death spiral and it will not end until our citizens restore a government dedicated to free enterprise. The cost of socialism is far more than the cost of the direct government taxes. It is also the cost imposed by all their regulations and fear of harassment. And that is only the beginning.

Socialism eventually infects every branch of government.  Today even churches across the nation are being forced to stop their pot luck diners not because anyone ever got sick but because the kitchens of their individual members have not been inspected by government health officials and many cooks did not wear plastic gloves when preparing the food for the church pot luck dinner.  That is how invasive the government has gotten in the northern states. 
 
A socialist government perverts the Constitution and costs at least four times as much as it directly taxes the citizens because it taxes every stage of private enterprise and adds layers of regulators and inspectors and fines. And it shuts down free enterprise businesses that complain and government agents have known to remove all their records and bankrupt them just in the process of harassing them with unwarranted investigations.  Donald Trump University was harassed into bankruptcy and now he is harassed because he still opposes the socialist tyrants.  Socialist government has the manpower and police power to imprison any innocent person.  And once power drunk socialists are democratically elected as both Hitler and Stalin were democratically elected, no one knows about the gulags, torture, gassing and genocide that go on.  Finally they either are destroyed in wars or they peacefully return to a free enterprise system and restore economic growth as both Eastern Europe and China are trying to do today. 
 
America on the other hand is sliding downward and this administration is the first that now reads and hears everything we write or say or that we even access using the web or other electronic media.  FDR was a socialist but he died and Truman, once a shop owner, did not continue the American slide into socialism.  FDR was a lost decade, Carter was a lost decade and Obama has caused at least one lost decade which thanks to socialized medicine could be a fifty year decline toward economic and intellectual bankruptcy.  That is why this economy is flat lined and already worse than Jimmy Carter had it when Reagan was elected and restored a sane free enterprise economy that reduced our dependency on the Middle East as fracking is helping today.  One can imagine how much worse our economy would be now if the EPA shut down fracking.  But the Bush administration effectively stopped their effort. 

The following is part of the entire Abraham Lincoln speech that is available on the web.

"We find ourselves under the government of a system of political institutions, conducing more essentially to the ends of civil and religious liberty, than any of which the history of former times tells us. We found ourselves the legal inheritors of these fundamental blessings. We toiled not in the acquirement or establishment of them--they are a legacy bequeathed us, by a once hardy, brave, and patriotic, but now lamented and departed race of ancestors. Their's was the task (and nobly they performed it) to possess themselves, and through themselves, us, of this goodly land; and to uprear upon its hills and its valleys, a political edifice of liberty and equal rights; 'tis ours only, to transmit these, unprofaned by the foot of an invader, undecayed by the lapse of time and untorn by usurpation, to the latest generation that fate shall permit the world to know. This task of gratitude to our fathers, justice to ourselves, duty to posterity, and love for our species in general, all imperatively require us faithfully to perform. 

 At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by our own hand.                         Abraham Lincoln 

The noble ancestors Abraham Lincoln refers to are our Founding Fathers who American socialists now refer to disparagingly as “Dead white men” or WASPs.

These following Abraham Lincoln quotes are also available and are why the Obama administration wants gun controls and spies on Americans and searches old Nuns and little blond girls while giving Moslems a free pass.  The socialists are still afraid of the American people. see brainy quotes.

Don't interfere with anything in the Constitution. That must be maintained, for it is the only safeguard of our liberties. 

We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution.   
 
Sept 12, 2013  Apple hit a recent high and then plunged 8% back to where it was a month ago.  But the market as a whole remains close to the upper resistance level it hit just over three and again one month ago.  This is the potential second shoulder of a stock market head-and shoulders sell signal forming.  If there is no upward breakout soon this will be a major market sell confirmation.  It looks like Apple may be leading the market and this week it is already 8% below the recent high that it hit on an activist’s false rumors of a dividend payout coming soon to shareholders.
 
If one looks at their prospectus, ETF’s and many other marketed securities say they are backed by credit default swaps from banks.  Another financial crisis could make many of the banks fail again and make many securities worthless because they have little or no real physical assets backing their purported value.  The FED is making banks get out of the material commodity business now because strange transfers have been occurring without the movement of inventories.  It makes it appear as though the material stock piles are very large and valuable while all the bank is doing is transferring assets on paper so that they can be counted multiple times.  That is fraud similar to the policy China has been using to exaggerate imports, exports, and growth.
 
As Delta stock shoots up 10% we see how the very definition of being included in a major stock index distorts valuation.  Alcoa and the others plunged 10% after they were removed from indices.  If one stock in the DOW 30 is swapped out each year that is a 3.3% turnover per year or a 0.33% boost in distorted value each year or 33% or one third being an untruthful increase in value per century over and above all the other distortions possible.  The reality is that growing companies are added and over-the-hill companies are removed all the time so the distortion on the Dow is much larger because it only represents the fastest growing companies.  The NYSE is much broader and more representative of the market and that is why we only use it for our buy and sell analysis.  It is now testing its trend line again but on a cash flow basis it already indicated people are now net sellers.
 
"As democracy is perfected, the office of the President represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be occupied by a downright fool and complete narcissistic moron.”--- Democrat socialist H.L. Mencken, Baltimore Evening Sun, which appeared in the July 26, 1920 edition.  That was during the roaring twenties and just before FDR’s great depression. 
 
In the 1930s when socialist, FDR set up the Social Security System it was a US Government Pension system for workers who paid into it.  But under the socialists in power today they are saying it is now an entitlement system for anyone with anger management disabilities (Ritalin program), obesity and other disability claims (doubled under current socialists), and physical impairments.  The current administration no longer guarantees Social Security is for the workers who paid for the program because 25% of young workers are unemployed and another 20% of young people are having children out of wedlock and are a growing young population on welfare.  Without productive people paying into the system there will only be enough for entitlements not retired workers.  The welfare, wedlock and obesity problems now affect well over 50% in the current president’s strongest voting block and they are exposed to more than twice the probability of violent crime as in the general population.  NYC police had a policy of searching suspicious street loiters for illegal guns and dropped the NYC crime rate more than 50% but the current administration says that is illegal.
          
Sept 10, 2013 
A possible strike against Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad would lead to an escalation in the civil war rather than put an end to it, and Christians are concerned about them becoming a lightning rod for the Muslim radicals at their doorstep.  A compromise, the removal of Syrian poison gas stockpiles may now be possible.
 
World Economies Sept 13 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
 
Industrial production in Germany took a surprising drop of 1.5% in July indicating the recovery may not be real.
 
Japan is considering a reduction in corporate taxes.
 
China has started replenishing some of its stockpiles indicating production is no longer declining.
 
Canada housing starts post biggest drops since January.
 
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline.  It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing.  Obama is the first American to use QE to suppress the interest rates on national debt to allow America to take on debt until the economy collapses when as Greenspan predicted the market will force up interest rates in spite of QE.
 
 The German market has begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell signal after failing to reach its last high.  It also failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
 
 The French market has continued to decline since year 2000.  At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
 
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
  The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.
 
 
American Economy
Sep 9
Consumer Credit Jul $10.4B down sharply -30% from last months $13.8B, again Obama administration economic reporting appears incompetent at best, manipulated at worst.
Sep 10
JOLTS - Job Openings Jul 3.689M down 10% from 3.936M ---
Sep 11
MBA Mortgage Index 09/07 -13.5% sharply lower from up 1.3% ---
Wholesale Inventories Jul 0.1% up from which is not good -0.2% --
Crude Inventories 09/07 -0.219M bad again means price rises again -1.836M -
Sep 12
Initial Claims 09/07 NG because two states did not report
Continuing Claims 08/31 NG 2871K down from 2951K is No good because 2 states did not report
Export Prices ex-ag. Aug -0.1% down from 0.0%
Import Prices ex-oil Aug -0.2% down again from -0.4%-- bad for exports
Sep 13
Retail Sales Aug 0.2% down from 0.4% --
Retail Sales ex-auto Aug 0.1% down from 0.6% ---
ProducerPriceIndex Aug 0.3% sharply higher 0.0% a 3.6% annual rate ---


Consumer confidence in the U.S. fell sharply from 82.1to 76.8 the lowest level since April, indicating household spending has not picked up.

If you look at this next plot you must conclude there have been no net new jobs created since 2006.  That means there have been seven lost years due to the mortgage derivative mess caused by the Barney Frank Liar-Loan scandal that was meant to increase minority home ownership.  In fact the unethical socialist liar loan system collapse reduced overall American home ownership from 66% before liar loans to 62% after the collapse.
 
 
The Markets Sept 13, 2013
Global bond yields showed investors ignored 56 percent of Moody’s and 50 percent of rival Standard & Poor’s rating and outlook changes last year.  But since SandP downgraded Obama’s deficit debt it is being harassed just as the IRS was used to harass many individual American citizens and groups last year and Donald Trump is being harassed now by New York State.  American freedom is being attacked now from every socialist government angle.
 
The stock market is testing the resistance level for the third and last time (shoulder 1, head 2, and now second shoulder 3).  If you look at these next two plots it says this bull market is over because prices are about 50% higher than the historical average and the dividends are very low.
 
Apple plunged 8% after breaking above $500 on false rumors of a dividend disbursement spread by the same activist who just got out of Dell.  It will be interesting to see if the activist who spread the positive but false rumors of Apple dividends is one of the persons who just sold their Apple sock.
 
Very soon the stock markets will make critical tests of whether they confirm the developing head and shoulders in market price average.  When the stock prices give confirmation sell orders can be expected to cascade and a 20% decline could occur in just a day or too selloff.  The WSJ continues to shows the SandP at its critical resistance level and the DJI in a much worse condition.  If the stock market falls 20% on top of the current decline of 9% from the top then many will be buying stocks again with about 50% of their cash and holding off for the next dip.  Stocks that have fallen 40% or more but which have good balance sheets would have no good reason for being sold down so low. 
 
World trade starts to grow as China begins to replenish iron ore stockpiles. Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.  But it is up again this week. 
 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
 
The VIX indicates extreme complacency with the worst about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.
 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
 World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

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