Sept 27, 2013 America has had the best health system in the world since WWII but may soon have Obama’s version of Britain’s socialized medicine. Complacency in America has set in from hearing Obama Administration and Senate Democrats cry wolf every week on something else. This administration negotiates with Syrians, Iranians, and Russians but refuses to negotiate with Republicans to reduce government and get on a path to eventually balance the budget. The only thing that got a quick compromise was the bail out of banks after the collapse of the stock market that occurred shortly after Obama was elected in November 2008. And if you were around at the time the Democrats in Congress were even able to get the infamous ACORN organization funded with taxpayer money that day. So that seems to be the strategy again and again. This time the socialists say the government will shut down in mid October. MSNBC was told this morning that the shutdown would not truthfully happen until early November. They said that if the budget was not resolved by then there could be a panic and a drop in the worldwide USA credit rating was possible as well as a government shut down. But in truth a reduction in government size and spending is exactly what is needed to save most nations in the world not just Cyprus and Greece.

Only just 30 years ago the largest percentage group in graduating classes of doctors was the children of American doctors... and America had the pre-eminent health care system in the world.   Doctors loved their work and encouraged their children to enter the profession.  American doctors are now telling their children to go into something else and many are planning to cut back work and retire early.  In addition to the degradation of the American medical system with socialized medicine, the current generation of American children has been forced out of the medical profession by fraud knowingly perpetrated by socialist supported attorneys who profit from fraud.  We cannot afford 50% of our people with entitlements lying by claiming back injuries and other faked infirmities.  There was a time in America when such people were filmed water skiing and doing strenuous games and the movie clips could be put on television to embarrass the social dirt bags and their dirt bag attorneys that were cheating.  But today such shameless behavior is protected by equally shameless lawyers by making it illegal to keep records of multiple claims made for the same faked infirmity.   For instance a well faked back claim is a gold mine for a dirt bag lawyer today because the fraud is convincing and it can be used over and over because there is no database kept for such fraud because stopping fraud might cause 80% of the socialist lawyers to go out of business for lack of clients.  It is so bad that most Americans now personally know someone benefiting from the big socialist fraud industry that lobbies against records that would prove the frauds.  On the other hand there are many databases on doctors and any time a doctor loses in court to an ambulance chaser… that doctor is hounded out of business with what appear to be fake malpractice claims for faked damages they are accused of.  Therefore in this Obama socialist climate of Octomoms and fraud, fewer than 10% of new medical students are now from established American families.  Most are immigrants or from first generation immigrant Americans.  When you look at a picture of a graduating medical school class today it looks like they are almost all from Asia and Africa.   Honest Americans with ethics and principles are being driven out by government fraud and corruption of our system. The current generation of American children has been forced out of the medical profession by fraud knowingly perpetrated by leftist attorneys who do not allow the creation of databases to identify and stop their most lucrative source of income, faked accidents and injury fraud.  Instead the socialists in government are now keeping records of everything they can of what you and I read, say or write for later use when they can get a court order to use the data to silence us voluntarily or involuntarily.  The system targets good Americans not people like the Boston Bombers.  It is sickening that leftist women are out there demonstrating for the caught bomber that they fallen in love with.

 

 We cannot afford Obama’s socialized medicine paying women to have free fertilization treatments so they can have fatherless children to make more than $100,000 a year in child welfare payments like Octomom and currently more than 90% of women on welfare.   Fertilization treatments are free in the original version of Obama’s socialized medicine.  It is a 70% problem for women in Obama’s entire ethnic population.  Out of wedlock children is now a 20% problem for the entire population of young American women on or off welfare.  It is the biggest women’s issue after free contraception and free abortions.  It is one of the sad reasons that so many people are now in favor of abortions.   Some say they wish all the parents of leftist’s had gotten free abortions.   The socialist welfare class has the highest incidence of abortions.  Abortions were a form of socially accepted genocide in socialist countries and Hitler and Stalin reasoned, why stop aborting lives after birth.  If the people can’t work or support socialism they thought they had no right to live.  The people who gave Hitler, Stalin, Mao and others their absolute socialist powers were the very people that they exterminated first.  They were people who could not or would not work.  Unfortunately liberalism and socialism is a mental disease and soon they kill anyone who does not agree with them.  Read some of the stuff they are discussing now.  When America chooses to eliminate any single one of our Constitution’s Bill of Rights we will know a socialist dictatorship has taken control.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-robert-m-myers/fourth-trimester-abortion_b_3665226.html

 

http://townhall.com/columnists/stevedeace/2013/08/17/are-you-for-4th-trimester-abortions-n1663606/page/full

 

 

Short interest is something many companies report and it tells you whether funds are optimistic or pessimistic concerning individual stocks. See: http://wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3062-nyseshort-highlites.html

 

You can see that AAPL rose recently because funds covered their shorts.  You can see BAC is under selling pressure.  You can see that the boost in China’s reported dry shipping caused short sellers to recently bail out of DRYS.  Interestingly BA has short sellers piling on as MSNBC tells people to buy in.  It looks like short sellers are just starting to leave CAT alone.  It has been heavily shorted this year.  See:

http://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/short-interest.aspx

 

It is interesting that the sellers stop selling at the NYSE 9700 index level of the previous high.  But the sellers are running out of wiggle room and some point they will stop pretending that there is any support.  That day is likely coming very soon.  See:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 

Approximately 82% of the NYSE is controlled by fund managers.  The little investors are at a great disadvantage because group-think is influenced by particularly MSNBC and small investors do not understand their language.  It is highly probable that their automated investment criteria are modeled and that they have a good idea when risk is high and what other large investors are planning.  Such group think could lead to the binge of short selling when Obama was elected and the period of suppressed short selling that occurred recently.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NYX

 

JP Morgan Directors should be voted out by share holders for not immediately firing Jamie Dimon for his mismanagement costing many $billions without an end even in sight. 

http://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-shows-id-2013-9

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-09-23/jpmorgans-jamie-dimon-defends-his-management-in-a-2009-phone-call

 

Sept 26, 2013  Careful how you use the ARMS or TRIN Index.  It appears to be useful but a longer term predictor.  At the following site only the 89 DMA chart is lined up with the Willshire 5000 index and it shows that our current level is at a high in ARMS and that usually a short term decline of 5% to 10% occurs that precedes a sharp longer term decline later of 15% to 50%.  It shows the main decline occurs four to six months after the peak in ARMS.  That would imply that the first decline we are about to see may be only 5% to 10% and people will see a recovery and think it is over but then the 15% to 50% decline would likely occur near the summer of 2014.

http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/volume/arms.htm

 

Sept 25, 2013   Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has warned Congress that the Treasury will be at the end of its ability to use "extraordinary measures" to keep the country from defaulting on its payments by mid-October. 

 

Sept 24, 2013   Nationalized Medicine and then pretty soon Nationalized Banking!  Quantitative Easing took all the individual small bad red ink balance sheets of the banks and put it on one huge Fed red ink balance sheet that American taxpayers now owe!  Those are all opinions publicly expressed this week.  But today, David Darst of Morgan Stanley predicted America will one day create jobs again at the rate of President Regan’s million new hires a month when American voters throw the current bums out of the Presidency and Congress.  Throw out the socialist bums who spy on their own freedom loving people while letting the Moslem Boston Bombers go undetected!  Throw out the bums who target children, nuns, Catholics and Pentecostals for pat-downs and let Moslems go unchecked.  Throw out the bums that use drones on American soil to spy on farmers and hunters who own guns.  Nussel said the people are waiting for Republicans to take economic leadership.  Santelli said the Democrats are like the Borg, all in mind controlled lock step and that everyone knows that Obama’s Nationalized Medicine is not ready for prime time so why not delay it a year and work instead on the $17 trillion deficit Obama is creating even without Nationalized Medicine.  Santelli said even the President and the US Congress have exempted themselves from Obama’s Nationalized medicine. 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324665604579080921594857770.html

 

A former FBI official agreed to plead guilty to leaking classified information about a counter- terrorism operation.  Sachtleben was implicated in the leak investigation after authorities recently subpoenaed a reporter’s phone records and compared them with other evidence gathered in the inquiry.  The Justice Department was recently accused of violation of American freedom press when it secretly collected the records from AP reporters and editors over a two-month period in 2012. 

 

Sept 23, 2013  Barron’s (page M 42) reported that the Arms index, also known as the short term trading index (TRIN), predicts stocks are about to fall in price.  It is a number derived by dividing (the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of declining stocks) by (the volume of advancing stocks divided by the volume of declining stocks).  For that ratio of ratios, a number higher than 1.0 is an indicator of a market turning lower.  The NYSE was at 1.68 and the NASDAQ hit 1.28 on Friday.  The NYSE MKT (the former American exchange of smaller companies) Arms index rocketed up to 5.93.  Worldwide, stocks wavered near their highs of 2007 that occurred when the bubble burst for the Dodd/Obama/Barney Frank liar loan entitlement program that bankrupted many poor and uneducated people enticed by low interest loans the way quantitative easing entices weak minded socialists to go into debt that ultimately bankrupts them or chronically impoverishes them.

http://online.barrons.com/public/page/market-indicators.html

 

World Economies Sept 27 2013

Takeshi Fujimaki, a former noted investment adviser now a member of Japan’s upper house of parliament, said that a fiscal crisis in Japan is inevitable by 2020.

 

Japan inflation accelerated to the 2008 pre recession level.

The new Iranian leader snubbed Obama Wednesday and broke with predecessors Thursday by condemning the Holocaust.

Home prices in Ireland appear to be recovering from the low.  While Britain’s business investment declined over 2% the GDP improved 0.7% as disposable income rose ending the 3.2% decline due to their recent relapse into recession.

 

Iran sees weakness in American leadership as an opportunity.  They have intercontinental missiles which they hope to arm with nuclear weapons and think they can negotiate with Obama.

China’s economy slowed this quarter as growth in manufacturing and transportation weakened contradicting bulk trade and other official signs of an expansion pickup.  Increases in business-investment and real estate revenue also slowed, the survey from New York-based China Beige Book International said based on responses from 2,000 people from Aug. 12 to Sept. 4 as well as 32 in-depth interviews conducted later in September.  The results “show the conventional wisdom of a renewed, strong economic expansion in China to be seriously flawed,” China Beige Book President Leland Miller and research director, Craig Charney said.

 

Markets in Europe continue to waver near their 2007 highest levels as investors now worry about the lack of a positive catalysts going forward.

 

Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline.  It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing.  Obama is the first American to use QE to suppress the interest rates on national debt to allow America to take on debt until the economy collapses when as Greenspan predicted the market will force up interest rates in spite of QE.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 The German market hit previous resistance levels and has begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell signal after failing to reach its last high.  It also failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 The French market has continued to decline since year 2000.  At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

 

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

  The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 

American Economy

Sep 24

Case-Shiller 20-city Index Jul 12.4% improved from 12.1% ++

FHFA Housing Price Index Jul 1.0% up from 0.7%  ++

Consumer Confidence Sep 79.7 fell 2% from 81.8

Sep 25

MBA Mortgage Index 09/21 5.5% sharply lower 11.2% --

Durable Orders Aug 0.1% flat after plummeting -7.4% --

Durable Goods -ex transportation Aug -0.1% flat after plummeting -0.8% --

New Home Sales Aug 421K 390K down from 394K --

Crude Inventories 09/21 2.635M up this week -4.368M  +

Sep 26

Initial Claims 09/21 305K down 1% from last weeks 309K +

Continuing Claims 09/14 2823K up 4% from last week 2787K ---

GDP - Third Estimate Q2 2.5% flat and low 2.5%  +

GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q2 0.6% down from  0.8% +

Pending Home Sales Aug -1.6% still declining -1.3%  --

Natural Gas Inventories 09/21 87 bcf NA NA 46 bcf 

Sep 27

Personal Income Aug 0.4% up from 0.2% +

Personal Spending Aug 0.3% up from 0.2% +

PCE Prices - Core Aug 0.1% flat at 0.1%  deflationary --

Michigan Sentiment - Final Sep 77.5 improved from 76.8  +

 

Obama policies have provided no net new jobs created since 2006 leaving the young with high unemployment.  Three out of four Obama jobs are part time jobs.  That means there have been seven lost years due to the mortgage derivative mess caused by the Barney Frank/Obama/Dodd Liar-Loan scandal that was meant to increase minority home ownership.  In fact the unethical socialist liar loan scheme collapsed and reduced overall American home ownership from 66% before liar loans to 62% after the collapse.  This administration has hurt every group that voted for Obama and has given the wealthiest 1% a 26% increase in earnings.  Obama voters are getting equality of poverty.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=nonfarmprivate

 

The Markets Sept 27, 2013

The sellers are milking every dollar they can out of the market but avoiding breaking down through the previous high to avoid another sell signal.  That can not go on very long.

 

Those stocks owned a large percentage by institutions which are not declining may be more stable in a sharp decline of the market.  Those stocks with few institutions holding them may be shorted more by hedge funds when the shorting begins and the indices.

 

The current market decline is the longest so far this year.

 

Tuesday and Wednesday’s patterns started the same as Mondays. Tuesday it ended with a let loss again.  We expect that pattern will be similar today but soon we expect a sharp downward break when the buyers run out of cash.

 

Monday, there was early selective selling of experienced investors who are raising cash but then they went on the sidelines and allowed the inexperienced to recover market most of the losses.  There is still very little evidence of short selling.

 

Last Wednesday the market ended at a new high but it was not a breakout.  Thursday was a critical day to see if there was a breakout but the run up failed.   Friday the American markets gave a massive short term ARMS (TRIN) sell signal and earlier this year gave the longer term Hindenburg Omen.

 

All the over priced equity markets of the world are the result of QE inflating world debt by making world debt more affordable.  It is unsustainable and has withdrawal symptoms that make it virtually impossible to discontinue QE.   The benefit of QE is equivalent to giving the homeless big discounts on wine and liquor to stimulate retail sales for an Obama bottoms up economic growth program.  All that happens is the rich wine and liquor corporations and their executives get richer.   This Bernanke QE cure is the most stupid economic policy this Obama administration has undertaken and the USA is becoming hooked on it.

 

Ultimately it leads to chronic economic pain as Japan has felt for 23 years or economic death. QE suppresses interest rates and allows individuals, corporations, and governments to eventual choke on debt.

 

If you look at these next two plots it says this bull market is over because prices are about 50% higher than the historical average and the dividends are very low.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout

 

World trade started to grow as China begins to replenish iron ore stockpiles. Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.  But it is up again this week.  Be careful because in normal times the BDIY would be well over 10000 and with the recent trade improvement it is still below 2000.  It is still below where we were in 2012 before Obama claimed our economy improved 2% and China claimed theirs grew 7%.  Socialists always have to claim such nonsense as their ship of state sinks.

 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

 

The VIX indicates extreme complacency with the worst about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.  Investors are now as complacent as they were in 2007 at the peak.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 World market updates:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia