1-14-16 Wall Street commentators know so little that they have to personally go through a stock market collapse before they learn that the stock market leads the economy up and down by about six months. That is why the stock market is going down now not in six months from now when the layoffs and corporation bankruptcies are announced. The enormous IPO speculation we have had this year collapses when it is already too late to get out and that causes financial institutions to sometimes collapse. The last time on 2007-2008 the financial collapse was caused by financial derivatives that were supported by the Liar-Loan fraud that Dodd-Frank-Obama got their new Fannie and Freddie loan institutions to create to allow blacks to get loans at low rates that jumped to a conventional rate after two years. Smart people sold those houses before the payments doubled or tripled but many others went bankrupt. The bankruptcies caused home ownership to drop from 66% of the American population to 62%, as the housing market collapsed. Cheap mortgages were one of Obama’s first announced successes which he claimed as a Senator. Now he talks positively about his crappy health care program which has caused economic stagnation as people lose full time jobs because many employers cannot afford to pay 40% more for Obama’s socialist health plan than for a private employee health plan they previously offered full time workers. Only part time workers are subsidized by Obama’s plan.

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         The small bounce we expect at this point could be as much as 10% to 15% with several leveraged volatile ETF’s of which about 5% might be captured by the average investor.  That probably would not cover the risk of going long on this current bounce.  It is time to position for the next major decline of more than 15% which for leveraged bearish ETF’s could be a 40% to 50% gain of which 20% to 30% could be real for the average investor.  This coming decline will in all likelihood in hindsight be lumped into a January-February decline which we think will be the worst decline of the developing recession.  So we are still talking about a bottom before May.   We hope in fact for an earlier bottom but we have an incompetent administration, an FBI investigation of a corrupt “stupid party” presidential candidate, and worldwide Islamic terrorism that could be the recipes for a colossal disaster this year.

           1-13-16  The stock market’s manipulated indices, the DJI, NASDAQ, and the S&P all hit strong resistance levels and stopped falling today.  They are the cherry picked indexes that the WSJ likes to use.  However on a cash flow basis they all broke down.   The other two indices, the NYSE and the Russell 2000 broke through both their price and cash flow resistance levels.  Now we expect a rally and then followed within about two or three weeks, by another plunge greater this current  one.  Each plunge gets worse because even though the magnitude could be the same, when the market is down 50% the same point plunge is twice the %value plunge.  It is simple math.

           1-12-2016   The socialist press still can’t get the unemployment situation straight.  They are stupid and love the “stupid party.”  They cannot explain why the economy and the stock marked stink and the unemployment level is not bad.  Let’s explain it to them for the fifth time.  The reason the unemployment rate appears artificially low is because it is entirely the artificial benefit of forcing American corporations to pay the insurance costs of anyone working more than 35 hours a week.   Therefore corporations have been cutting hours so that “Uncle Sap” Obama will pay the health costs of the 35hr hamburger helpers.  Unemployment only appears lower entirely because you need 15% more employees working less that 35 hrs to make up for the artificial limit Obama set to free employers of the cost of Obama welfare.  That means 6% unemployment is really 7+%.   And if we add in the number of workers who have given up looking for work the unemployment is 14%.  And if we add in the people who have chosen government welfare the non-working population is 22%.  Obama is the world’s biggest fraud. 

        Wall Street and European stock markets fell on Monday, worsening a brutal start to 2016, as a plunge in beaten-down oil prices and a fresh tumble for Chinese shares gave investors more reasons to sell.   After rising in morning trading, the major U.S. indexes reversed course and it was their worst five-day start to the year in history.

Fears over China's economy contributed to last week's declines but in truth the developed world is now going into a long overdue recession.  Oil prices declined for a sixth straight session to start the new year, as we predicted and will only rise when the economies of the developed world bottoms out.   While the market may take another breath it is still doing a deep dive.

           1-11-2016   The American stock markets had its worst week in history last week.  The drop was about what we predicted but more abrupt.  Usually it needs more time so there could be two or three more days before a pop.  And as we have estimated the next drop after a small rebound will be the worst drop of all, and then the last decline should set in the market bottom.  That is only based on how many financial excesses need to unwind.  That is to say we only expect the bottom to occur when the house of cards has collapsed and we have seen several bankruptcies in process.   We expect startups and oil companies to get hit the hardest.

Continuing unemployment claims  as of 12/26 hit a record 2,230,000 people even though Obama still claims the unemployment rate is continually dropping and the period that one can receive unemployment has be fixed for several years.    That claim is just plain stupid as Americans recognize as a predominant trait of the current party in power, the “stupid party.”