Monday, January 4, 2016

1-7-2016 The Wall Street use of a 50 DMA set a distorted and incorrect bullish tone for six months already while the 200DMA did not. So they did not show the 200DMA very often because it showed the truth. Now, within three weeks the 50DMA should also be showing the truth that bear market is at full steam. We think the WSJ does a disservice to most investors by presenting a myopic view of the market and not showing the NYSE and other broader exchanges. Showing the highly manipulated DJI and NASDAQ only allows big investment to crush small investor. Investors should always look at other exchanges. Here is the most important to watch, a canary in the stock mine.

         Most reported economic indicators show the US economy in decline:
Construction Spending Nov at -0.4% contracted -1.4% from the 1.0% direction in October
ISM Index Dec 48.2 down from 48.6.   Anything below 50 means manufacturing is contracting.
Auto Sales and Truck Sales all ugly and not reported on time.
Housing MBA Mortgage Index Jan/02 sharply lower at -27.0% for a record decline.  The worst we can recall.
MBA Mortgage Purchase Index reporting has been delayed.
ADP Employment Change Dec 257K still below the 300K standard.
Trade Balance Nov -$42.4B still a deficit
Factory Orders Nov -0.2%  
ISM Services Dec 55.3 down from 55.9
Challenger Job Cuts Dec -27.6% down from -13.9% 
         Apple Inc needs to hire a good CEO who cares about America and not NAMBLA.  Otherwise the stock will likely continue to plummet.  Perhaps someone will buy the company and clean house and then innovate again and turn the company around.  That is unlikely and we don’t expect Apple to be higher three months from now.  Nike is highly over valued and is the favorite footwear of people with inferiority complexes who believe the Nike advertizing and find it to be their ego booster.  Nike is another stock to avoid.  Oil stocks will probably be one of the best investment opportunities later this year.
          It is still not the time to be long in investments.
           1-6-2016  We have to revise our stock market prognosis downward now.  The stock market may continue to decline until a competent businessman is elected to lead and straighten out the world’s rapidly growing economic mess.  Another four years of “Stupid Party” government will result in further chaos and a world-wide economic depression.  That is the opinion of many Americans who are coming forward now to vote the “Stupid Party” out of office.  That is why a successful entrepreneur who knows how to take a basket case company through bankruptcy and turn it into a profitable company is now so much in high demand.  Candidate Donald Trump brought four failing corporate situations back from the grave that way and made them successful.   He did not bankrupt them he restored them by taking them out of debt under American bankruptcy law.  
          Obama with his “stupid party” have put the USA twenty Trillion dollars underwater and they continue to do stupid things.  Obama and the Clinton’s are too stupid to understand that what Trump did was the best for the companies he managed.   Now, the only way one can end a “Great World Wide Depression” quickly is for the entire world to quickly enter bankruptcy and start fresh again.  That is how we can save this planet.  But no Obama or Clinton lying fool could ever be trusted to straighten out the mess they have left us with.  Clinton and Obama only know how to bankrupt countries.  Donald Trump thinks he can restore a bankrupt country and he gives many concerned Americans new hope.  Hilary Clinton is obviously a continuing US security risk because she claims she does not know what she did wrong.  Hillary should be tried for her security leaks and for the slaughter of Americans at Benghazi.
        Brent Crude has now fallen to an eleven year low and is getting worse as Moslem dictators and fanatic religious leaders try to physically and economically destroy one another and have to pump more oil just to sustain their bitter, and murderous in-fighting.   Meanwhile the world oil demand continues to drop as a worldwide economic depression begins to set in.
 
          1-5-2016  Yesterday the Dow began with its worst opening day loss since 2008 when Obama was elected and the Dow went ka-thud.  But it did not stop there.  Stocks in 2008 went down in a range from about 70% to 95% excluding bankruptcies and buy outs.  The oil stocks that survived are now down about 87% on average.  This time however oil stocks will be hit even harder because the Mid-East Moslem nations are economically, socially, and morally self destructing as a result of the insanity rampant in ISIS territory and Iran.  Iran is about to start flooding the world with oil now that the sanctions were lifted by Obama. 
      In the western world we have a new problem called Afluenza.  When rich liberals become so open minded that their brains fall out it and they are mentally unfit and cannot distinguish right from wrong it is called Afluenza, an abstraction of the word affluence and a disease.  Many of the rich in the “stupid party” suffer from it.  The affluent liberal divorced women from Newtown CT who taught her son how to shoot was really responsible for the murder of the twenty grade school children in the deep blue state of Connecticut.   Obama is doing a good job taking action to have gun owners vetted to weed out the insane, inept, and others who are not vetted.    Essentially everyone should be vetted before permitted to have a gun. Based on the platform of the “stupid party” any gun toting member of the “stupid party” is by definition unfit to have a gun.    Vetted and trained American militia, hunters, and family members have the Constitutional right to have and carry a gun and keep a few guns.   The individual who bought the guns for the Sacramento terrorists should never have been allowed to own a gun much less buy guns for people who were never vetted.   The test should rule out stupid people who have no common sense, by definition the members of the “stupid party”.  There are many gun ranges in the USA and anyone who wants to own a gun should pay to be vetted and trained on the safe use of guns.  Vetting should be done and signed off by qualified licensed individuals who should lose the license if even one of their trainees commits any first or second degree crime with or without a gun.
 
         Republican candidate Carson wants to take away the tax deduction for giving charitable contributions.  That is N.G. because it would pretty much end charitable contributions.  It would be better to have the charity pay the IRS back for the tax credit that the donating party got.  Better yet the Clinton Loophole that lets the Clinton’s all live high on the hog as millionaires should be closed because too many people in the stupid party cheat other Americans that way and then working Americans have to pay for the Clinton life style.   Hillary Clinton claimed poverty drove Bill and her to the public speaking circuit and that is why they created their self serving charity.
        Intelligence agency officials have concluded that two of Hillary Clinton's emails did in fact contain 'Top Secret' information, as an earlier, separate, review by an inspector general revealed and that Hilary should have had them stamped and sent them from a secure terminal.  The Central Intelligence Agency and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency agree that she should have had the emails marked with the highest level of classification at the time she sent them.  Hilary Clinton lied and said she did not violate the law by using her unsecured personal email when she sent hundreds of documents that the FBI said were of secret and top secret nature.  She says she is not guilty because she is just stupid and never realized that is was the content of the secrets that she gave away and not the stamp on it of secret that she was also supposed to put on it that created the secret document.   Everyone in government, academia, science, and law knows that Hilary’s excuse is completely lame brained and she should be handled far tougher than General Petraeus was handled by Hilary and Obama who destroyed Petraeus.  According to the New York Times, one of Hilary’s emails contained information about North Korea. The Times did not provide specifics.  But Korea has been working on a Hydrogen bomb.
             A movie on Benghazi will be coming out this month.  It tells how Hillary Clinton allowed four Americans to be murdered and then lied and said the murders were not done by terrorists.  She also lied and said the murders were just a protest against a film made by a Jewish man and at the same time told her family and others that it was actually terrorism for which she by law was required to authorize protection when informed of the danger.   She lied and said that the Jew was guilty which means he was also denied his rights as an American Citizen just as the four murdered Americans were deigned their right to have diplomatic protection from Hilary’s State Department. 
       Russia’s director of military intelligence who was in charge having journalists critical of socialist Putin shot has himself died unexpectedly at age 58.  And in China several Hong Kong authors and book sellers who have been critical of the China’s socialist leaders have disappeared and have hot been heard from again. 
 
1-4-2016  Our envisioned second leg of the stock market decline that also begins Obama’s second recession has begun.   The net decline of this leg will be as big as the August decline plus it will probably take all that the November-December rally had added.  Therefore it will be significantly greater than any decline in the last six years and probably the largest decline of this bear market.  There should also be yet a third decline in the early spring before the economic mistakes and jokes are washed away.  Many of the so-called technology and internet startups will go bankrupt.  The energy sector will remain volatile and hit some new lows until the world wide shakeout continues through spring. 
             This recent Obama market bubble even catapulted a rapper into a capitalist corporation executive position.  Every joker with a glib tongue crowd-funded a start-up and became a “millionaire for a year”.  But private funding and crowd funding are now in a state of collapse and only the Banks are left again for IPO’s.  So that game has abruptly ended and it could take two years to be resurrected.
             The Chinese Communists are now panicking and are clamping on government controls to try to lock in gains and put the brakes on their economic decline.  They have yet to recognize all the wealth that has fled China as successful people seek to flee communism and become citizens in the West.  This is unlike every other decline in China since they introduced private enterprise.  It will be difficult for the Communists to avoid a real recession and significant unemployment for at least two years.
              But most serious is the possibility of World War of the East and West against the Middle East.  The Islamic terrorist insanity has united the former intransigent enemies of the East and the West.  We could see the East and West unite and divide the entire Middle East into about 200 inbred insane family related peasant tribal nations unless Iraq, Iran, and Pakistan start to behave in a civilized manner.  There is nothing like the threat of world insanity to unite all the remaining sane people of the world.
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