Monday, January 12, 2009

Buy at the end of declining days and ask for a lower price.

The underlying rally remains intact but the hedge funds are doing an outstanding job covering shorts without stimulating too much small investor interest. One thing is certain, listening to CNBC or the political economic analysis is almost as good as listening to Bernie Madoff. You cannot just accept information without removing their spin first. You need to determine the truth hidden behind remarks such as the unemployment problem. You have to put in the right context. For example if they say unemployment is 500 time worse than during the American revolution the context is they are comparing it improperly because the nations population is much larger now. You have to look at the 7.3% actual unemployment now versus the estimates of 25% unemployment and 22% inflation rate towards the end of the American Revolution. Twenty years ago 7.3% American unemployment was not unusual. The maximum double digit rate they are projecting for this recession is less than Socialist states have during their best times.

Asian and European markets are down on a weighted basis of about 2.2% and 1.1% respectively at this time.

The best entry points now are likely the last hour and put the limit orders in at least 1% below the price going into the last hour.

The negative news tonight will be that the first week was down and that will correlate with eventually a down year. That happens often. But an up year following a down year of more than 15% is far more probable.

The market is waiting for Obama to take office and then the spin of the media and analysts will swing from negative to adulation probably for the next six months at least. If the market has gained under the negative spin we have seen, the market will probably overshoot upward and we may be partly or completely out again if it does overshoot in the next six months.

15% of the 40% gain we expected has already occurred since the November 2008 lows. That leaves anything over an additional 25% gain within six months as in overshoot territory and an opportunity to go into cash again.

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