World markets trembled for Bill yesterday

The major European markets were down close to 5% yesterday and are now down fractionally.The Asian markets on average closed down 3.5% last night but China was down less than 0.5%.The American markets were down about 3.5% yesterday.

It is not really credible to believe that the retail sales numbers were the cause of the 3.5% decline as the media was saying. After all the sales for the entire year of 2008 sales were down only 0.1% relative to 2007 so the media hype about sales couldn't be the real concern. It more likely that the decline is due to the continued bank losses such as Bank of America now wanting American taxpayers to give another small bailout to cover their Merrill Lynch takeover losses. Financials took a big hit. When will bailouts end?

But another reason for the stock market loss is that the world realizes it will soon lose a genius at inventing and marketing new technologies. Bill Gates now has a short time to live and has gone home. Apple shares are plummeting and world markets trembled for Bill yesterday. People remember that when Bill left Apple the first time the company foundered until he returned. As for market cash flow fundamentals, some money has flowed out of stocks for the last few days but there is no sell signal in sight.

As for our re-spiral analysis there is no sell window open yet and the earliest we project a possibility of a sell window opening is early next week presuming we have more days like yesterday. If such a sell window opens we compute that it would be open a minimum of four weeks.

We still believe the market capitulation was last November and the new administration will enjoy 100 days of honeymoon. Many national trails and stimulus packages will be approved in the first two weeks of the new president’s term.

Our market positions are based on the following scenario.

• The new President Barack Obama will be given a "wonder boy" honeymoon where most critics give him a chance and the world media fawns over him.
• Market psychology improves dramatically.
• The left wing assumed demise of capitalism that caused this incredible buying opportunity will turn out to be untrue.
• The right wing accusations that the new administration is socialist will also prove untrue.
• The stimulation packages will work, another economic bubble will begin, and the rapidly growing FBI will try to take down fraud before it does so much economic damage.
• President Obama will turn out to be an American pragmatist and a great president, at least initially.