Friday, October 7, 2011

Alan Greenspan supports the Simpson Bowles compromise of Congress but if they do not get their act together he favors Obama’s plan

This morning Alan Greenspan said non-financial corporations are as undervalued now as they were during the “Great Depression” (Obama created his “Great Recession” out of his ignorance and big mouth full of crap.

Alan Greenspan supports the Simpson Bowles compromise of Congress but if they do not get their act together he favors Obama’s plan to let the Bush tax cuts expire. If nothing is done he expects a Bond market collapse. We agree and a minimum 5.6% Obama tax on gross income makes a lot of sense for above average incomes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Commission_on_Fiscal_Responsibility_and_Reform

The WSJ said that TARP was not a success. The banks used Obama’s 2010 Jobs Bill money to pay back the TARP money hey owed. The success of the Obama TARP payback, the total jobs he said were created, was just another Obama staged illusion, just crap. The "jobs" bill turned out to be an Obama bank liquidity and bailout bill, and the source of slush funds for Obama corruption and re-election vote buying. Obama hasn’t even the slightest clue. Government is nothing but a wealth redistribution agent. It only transfers jobs and wealth from taxpayers to the politicians favored programs and their fundraisers. Job creation can only work when small businesses know that the idiots in Washington have taken their hands out of business’s pockets and have stopped their regulatory profit killing frenzy. Obama still give his supporters liar loans that discriminate against everyone that has the American work ethic.

Romney now looks like the Republican candidate. Among other things Wall Street Week credits him with cleaning up the Boston harbor. While in 2003 he supported emission caps for decrepit filthy coal fired plants, in 2005 he made it clear that he did not support a climate change agreement based on “leftist environmental theology.” Over 31000 scientists have joined Edward Teller in signing a petition denying man-made global warming. See
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Teller
and
http://www.oism.org/pproject/pproject.htm#41

As Greece struggles to avoid a catastrophic default, government “worker pretender unions” in Athens shut down all transportation, tourism, local police security, and commerce and put Greece on the Brink. Powerful Greek unions have exercised their unique state and federal socialist unionization rights and have closed the whole country down. American cruises and tourists once again find themselves stranded in a lawless barbaric stone-age country. In Germany and France there are “pretenders to the crown”. In Greece there are “government pretenders to work.” Obama supporters are now taking to the streets venting hatred of the American financial system that ideally rewards only people with a work ethic so the country does not become like Greece.

World markets

Alan Greenspan now believes the Germanic northern countries need to kick out not just Greece but Italy, Spain and Portugal as well due to cultural differences. He says France is an anomaly in that it combines economic prudence with a fun loving culture.

Pakistan is no friend of the free world. They attack their neighbors and support and send in zombie terrorists. They follow the religion of the living dead and have no respect for human life or freedom. Pakistan has become a zombie terrorist nation to India, Afghanistan and the rest of the free world where women are not shot through the head for not acting like Mid East zombies. All Western aid to Pakistan should be cut off.

Oil seems to be stabilizing again as the world economy show resiliency and strength.

American Economy
Last week summary
Personal Income Aug -0.1% declined from 0.3% in July, deflationary
Personal Spending Aug 0.2% declined from 0.8% in July, 2.4% annual, low inflation
PCE Prices - Core Aug 0.1% declined from 0.2% in July, 1.2$ low price inflation
Chicago PMI Sep 60.4 rose from 56.5 in July –good production number
Michigan Sentiment - Final Sep 59.4 up from 57.8 in July –good turnaround
Gold is down 20% in September and the US dollar is again the best horse in the glue factory.

The week so far
ISM Index Sep manufacturing rose 2% to 51.6 from 50.6 in August
Construction Spending Aug rose 1.4% after retreating -1.3% in August
Auto/truck Sales Sep Chrysler sales climbed 27 percent, GM deliveries rose 20 percent, and Ford sales increased 9 percent the companies said in separate statements.
Factory Orders for Aug were down -0.2% after being up 2.4% in July. Not good.

Yesterday
MBA Mortgage Index 10/01 -4.3% after being up +9.3% last month. Not good
Challenger Job Cuts Sept is an indicator of the weakness of the labor market now 211.5% up from 47.0% last month. Not good
ADP Employment Change Sep 91K the same as last month. Not bad
ISM Services strength Sep was 53.0 down slightly from 53.3 last month. Not good
Crude Inventories 10/01fell sharply -4.679M from 1.915M last week indicating prices will rise again. Not good

This week
Initial Claims 10/01 rose again to 401K from 391K last week. Fairly flat
Continuing Claims 09/24 dropped slightly to 3700K from 3729K. Again fairly flat

Oct 7 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Sep
Oct 7 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Sep
Oct 7 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Sep
Oct 7 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Sep
Oct 7 8:30 AM Average Workweek Sep
Oct 7 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Aug
Oct 7 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Aug

Market Outlook October 7 2011
Yesterday, StreetSmartPost seems to be starting to change its tune after recently concluding we are in a bear market. “Thursday, October 6, 2011. 9.25 a.m. The short-term market volatility continues, and one of these days one of these rallies is going to be the beginning of the end of the correction, or bear market if it continues to worsen into one. And will be the beginning of the recovery we expect in the market during the winter ’s next favorable season. But is this one it?” But his chart is still deceitful because he leaves off the May 2010 low to make it look like the recent low broke the low of last year. That did not happen if you look at the NYSE chart below.

We are in a “Jimmy Carter” stagflation, misery index, malaise, “random walk,” market not a new bear market. It is now referred to as the “Obamacrap” market. Obama really thought some of the TARP funds would create jobs even though half was meant to corruptly inflate Democrat-socialist re-election coffers. Corruption is the only way a failed president can raise $1 Billion during a recession that Obama created by calling a stable Bush economy a “Depression” long before the “Liar Loan” Dodd-Frank financial crisis erupted. This is a “Big mouth Obamacrap” recession that Obama seems determined to make into a “Great Depression.”

We still expect a normal advance of up to at least 50% of the total recent decline. But then it will be time to lighten up on equities again. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^NYA&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=e50%2Ce100&a=&c=

Congress needs to fight Obama with the Simson-Bowles legislation and stop the high deficit spending that amounts now to leftist vote buying. If Obama is not allowed to further cripple the US economy we believe America will not have a double dip recession. See 1yr chart at:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were up sharply again last night. China closed, Hong Kong up 3.1%, India up 2.8%, Seoul up 2.9%, and Japan up 1%.

European markets are down slightly today in a range 0.3% to -1% half way through their day.

American market futures are down -0.2% to -0.4% at 8AM EST. US market futures rarely have any predictive correlation.

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