The prognosis is that the housing sector is now recovering and could gap upward in valuation any moment.

The prognosis is that the housing sector is now recovering and could gap upward in valuation any moment.

Goldman Sucks drives oil trades near highest price in a month after and cites further ‘upside risk’. Gee I wonder who is behind the manipulation of oil prices via the manipulation of the futures markets. It couldn’t be Goldman Sucks could it… the dealer that knew when the fraudulent Liar Loan derivatives were about to implode?

GE Pravda continues to sell the US short and continues moving American technology out of America.

If Idiots Geithner and Obama could just stay away from Europe for a while instead of posing and displaying their stupid smiles, Merkle would get the message that America will not bail them out through the World Bank. Then finally this crisis would get behind us.

EU officials said that several of the banks involved in Libor loan rates were raided, including UBS AG (UBSN), RBS, Barclays, HSBC, BNP Paribas (BNP) SA declined to comment about charges the banks are colluding to manipulate bank rates around the world to skim off higher profits.

By buying insurance policies for “Liar Loan” derivatives, Goldman Sucks had the most to gain if the American economy collapsed. They also profited big with the collapse of competitors such as the Lehman Bro’s that took the fall to cover the Washington/Wall Street corruption with a maze of worthless derivative paper. It took big bonuses, golden parachutes and a threat of a claw-back to make sure the villains of Wall Street kept quiet. Wall street flooded Obama with campaign contributions because it was poetic justice for the socialist corruption that made so much profit for wall street and bankrupted so many of the middle class home owners. The demise of the economy would come back to roost on the empty head of a socialist president willing to take the fall for Wall Street and blame it on Republicans and American free enterprise.

World markets
Bank of England officials voted unanimously to expand the size of their asset-purchase program as strains related to Europe’s debt crisis created a “compelling” case to add275 Billion pounds to the stimulus.
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Moody's said on Monday it might slap a negative outlook on France’s Aaa credit rating in the next three months if the costs for helping to bail out banks and other Euro zone members stretch its budget too much.

HSBC is abandoning the U.A.E. stock market as theocratic socialists have little interest in free enterprise and U.A.E. has little free enterprise to begin with. Trading volume in Mid Eastern theocracies and dictatorships is next to nothing anyway.

Josef Ackermann, the head of Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) and chief lobbyist for the world’s largest financial firms, showed just how naïve he is. He has pressed European leaders for months to devise a strategy to end the sovereign debt crisis without apparently realizing the banks he represents are responsible for the debt because they financed it.

American Economy
Last week summary
Initial Claims 10/08 up to 404K from 401K not good
Continuing Claims 10/01 down to 3670K from 3700K not great
Trade Balance Aug grew -$45.6B from -$44.8B worsening
Crude Inventories 10/08 rose 1.344M from the previous decline -4.679M good news
Treasury Budget Sep worsened -$64.0B from a monthly deficit rate of -$34.6B last month. Bad news
Retail Sales Sep rose 1.1% very good news
Retail Sales ex-auto Sep up 0.6% from 0.1% last month
Export Prices ex-ag. Sep stable at 0.3%
Import Prices ex-oil Sep stable at 0.2%
Mich Sentiment Oct 57.5 down again from 59.4 No confidence in Obama.
Business Inventories Aug up 0.5% worse than last month 0.4% increase
Treasury Budget Sep -$64.6B worse than last months -$34.6B
Empire Manufacturing Oct improved slightly to -8.48 from -8.82 better but not good
Industrial Production Sep same at 0.2% good
Capacity Utilization Sep same at 77.4% good

Yesterday
Producer Price Index Sep up 0.8% vs 0% last month. That is just data scatter.
Core PPI Sep 0.2% vs 0.1% last month or a 1.2% low inflation rate. Very good!
Net long-term TIC Flows Aug $57.9B vs $9.5B means lots of investment money is flowing in from other countries. Very very good!
NAHB Housing Market Index Oct was 18 vs 14 last month means housing continues to pick up. Very very very good!

Today
Oct 19 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 10/15
Oct 19 8:30 AM CPI Sep
Oct 19 8:30 AM Core CPI Sep
Oct 19 8:30 AM Housing Starts Sep
Oct 19 8:30 AM Building Permits Sep
Oct 19 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 10/15 -
Oct 19 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book Oct
This week
Oct 20 8:30 AM Initial Claims 10/15
Oct 20 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/08
Oct 20 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Sep -
Oct 20 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Oct
Oct 20 10:00 AM Leading Indicators


Market Outlook October 19 2011
Volume was low on Monday’s decline. It was quite high on yesterday’s rally. That is a good sign the marked is ready to surge. It appears the 50 DMA trend line is about to be broken on the upside. Short sellers are selling just small amounts of stock on each trade letting buyers quickly move the individual stocks up in price. The WSJ today said that buyers are seeing that the short sellers have started unloading but still buyers are complaining that they cannot take a position without causing the stock they want to swing sharply upward.

When the Berlin stripper finally does her act the stock market could gap up rapidly.

Stocks could have to rise an additional 3% from here to trigger a short squeeze, but if it does the market could be up more than 15.0% from the low by Christmas. We do not believe a new market high will be hit this year… but many market losses could be recovered.

We still expect a normal advance of at least 50% of the total recent decline and possibly as much as 90% recovery. For that to happen the 50DayMovingAverage (green line) must move above the 100 DMA (red line). The market is moving though a resistance area now, the 50 DMA. See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^NYA&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=e50%2Ce100&a=&c=

America has not had a double dip recession. Starting in April, the banks began net loaning of money to small corporations. Since August, international trade continued to recover. See 1yr chart. You may need to cut and paste this in:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were up last night. China down –0.3%, Hong Kong up 1.3%, India up 2%, Seoul up 0.9%, and Japan up 0.4%. Asia’s move usually follows America’s move the previous day.

European markets are up today in a range 0.3% to 1.5% half way through their day. Europe’s move usually follows America’s move the previous day and then American futures.

American market futures are in a range of –0.4% to 0.4% at 7:30 AM EST. US market futures rarely have any predictive correlation.