Friday, October 21, 2011

Communist leaning countries, even Portugal, may need to be expelled from the EU because leftists steal other people’s earnings

The "misery index," an informal measure derived by adding the national unemployment rate to the year-over-year change in consumer prices, rose to 13 in September. The index hit 18 during President Jimmy Carter's term in the 1980s.

The EU economic recovery has been relatively slow and remains fragile. Moreover, there are clear downside risks stemming from financial markets, rising energy and raw materials prices. However, EU industry is in good shape and has the potential to push the European economy back to growth. There are however considerable differences among members: the average labor productivity in manufacturing ranges from almost 125% of gross value added per person employed in Ireland to below 20% in Bulgaria. The share of innovating companies varies from 80% in Germany to 25% in Latvia. The business-friendliness of regulation gets highest scores in Finland whereas Italy is in last position.

While Obama supporters occupy Wall Street, the Washington Post reported that Obama has raised more money from employees of banks, hedge funds and other financial service companies than all the GOP candidates combined. Obama’s fundraising advantage is clear even at Bain Capital, the Boston-based private equity firm that was co-founded by Romney. Romney took in $34,000 from 18 Bain employees but Obama collected $76,600 and he needed only three donors to do it. What is going on? We seem to be losing our country. Notice that the financial world gave Obama nothing until Obama had Holden begin investigating the financial firms putting $billions of potential fines back in the range of possibilities. That is how authoritarian corruption works. You support the corrupt Obama candidate or Obama, he put you out of business, then he investigate you and he throw you in jail for 11 years. It works all the time and it is disgusting that Obama has stooped to this low level of corruption with Holden and “Occupy Wall Street” intimidation to get campaign contributions. So the Obama corruption works both on the poor who want something for nothing and the corrupt liberals who infiltrated corporations and commit economic crimes that are still destroying the middle class homeowners. The corrupt crony corporation liberals then pay off Obama with contributions so that Obama can concentrate on harassing the businessmen who fail to contribute. Obama crony capitalism is corruption. It is when the corrupt liberal government does favors for the corrupt liberals who they have gotten placed in American industries like GE that depend heavily on corrupting government to get contracts. Corrupt GE/Pravda then bought MSNBC and made it the mouthpiece for corruption, i.e. Liberals. Now obviously Comcast is another corrupt corporation because it took over MSNBC and continues the same socialist crony politics and lies that undermine free enterprise and American rights to the fruits of their labor.

World markets
France started back tracking as the EU approaches a decision point on Greece. The real solution all along seems to be the expulsion of Greece and perhaps Bulgaria from the EU. Communist leaning countries, even Portugal, may need to be expelled from the EU because leftists like to spend other people’s money and that is nothing short of the crime of theft.
Papandreou secured the backing of a majority of lawmakers in Athens yesterday as European leaders announced a second summit next week to work on a “global and ambitious” strategy to combat their sovereign debt problem.
Ringed by a cordon of police, lawmakers inside debated the second round of austerity measures to reduce deficit spending. The climate in Athens was extremely tense, with demonstrations turning into violent street skirmishes. Some Greek patriots began hurling firebombs not at the police but into the international socialist demonstrators. The scene outside Parliament looked like a war zone, with crowds of citizens throwing stones and firebombs at the rioters. Alas the police have citizen support that has had enough of the international socialists. They are tired of the socialist thugs dragging Greece into the gutter and making Greek citizens the laughingstock of the world. A Greek ruling party lawmaker, a former labor minister in Papandreou’s government, voted against the spending reduction and was quickly expelled from the party.
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Moody's said on Monday it might slap a negative outlook on France’s Aaa credit rating in the next three months if the costs for helping to bail out banks and other Euro zone members stretch its budget too much.

American Economy
The prognosis is that the housing sector has bottomed and is now recovering and could gap upward in valuation any time now.
Week summary
Empire Manufacturing Oct improved slightly to -8.48 from -8.82 better but not good
Industrial Production Sep same at 0.2% good
Capacity Utilization Sep same at 77.4% good
Producer Price Index Sep up 0.8% vs 0% last month. That is just data scatter.
Core PPI Sep 0.2% vs 0.1% last month or a 1.2% low inflation rate. Very good!
Net long-term TIC Flows Aug $57.9B vs $9.5B means lots of investment money is flowing in from other countries. Very very good!
NAHB Housing Market Index Oct was 18 vs 14 last month means housing continues to pick up. Very very very good!
MBA Mortgage Index 10/15 fell -14.9% as the real estate season closes in the north.
CPI Sep 0.3% vs 0.4% last month
Core CPI Sep 0.1% vs 0.2% last month
Housing Starts Sep 658K much better than the 571K last month
Building Permits Sep 594K down from 620K as winter approaches
Crude Inventories 10/15 -4.729M down from 1.344M last month

Yesterday
Initial Claims 10/15 403K down slightly from 404K
Continuing Claims 10/08 3719K up from 3670K
Existing Home Sales Sep 4.91M down slightly from Augusts 5.03M
Philadelphia Fed Oct 8.7 a great improvement from -17.5 last month
Leading Indicators Sep 0.2% amazing that the stock market hardly dented it from 0.3% last month

Market Outlook October 21 2011
It appears the 50 DMA trend line still is about to be smashed on the upside. But the EU still can’t get its act together. Idiots Geithner and Obama should stay away from Europe instead of posing and displaying their stupid smiles. America and private enterprise can not bail out leftists through the World Bank because leftists never stop trying to bite the hand that feeds them.

Stocks could have to rise an additional 3% from here to trigger a short squeeze, but if it does the market could be up more than 20% from the low by Christmas. We do not believe a new market high will be hit this year… but many market losses could be recovered.

We still expect a normal advance of at least 50% of the total recent decline and possibly as much as 90% recovery. For that to happen the 50DayMovingAverage (green line) must move above the 100 DMA (red line). The market is moving though a resistance area now, the 50 DMA. See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^NYA&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=e50%2Ce100&a=&c=

America has not had a double dip recession. Starting in April, the banks began net loaning of money to small corporations. Since August, international trade continued to recover. See 1yr chart. You may need to cut and paste this in:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were mixed up last night. China down -0.6%, Hong Kong up 0.2%, India down –0.9%, Seoul up 1.8%, and Japan up 0%.

European markets are up today in a range 0.5% to 1.9% half way through their day.

American market futures are up about 0.5% at 7:30 AM EST. US market futures rarely have any predictive correlation.

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