Monday, February 6, 2012

The president should “be apologizing to America,” a community activist who “demonizes and denigrates almost every sector of our economy.”

Romney said the president should “be apologizing to America,” describing him as a community activist who “demonizes and denigrates almost every sector of our economy.”

A recent "Investor's Business Daily" article provided statistics from a survey by the United Nations International
Health Organization. Shows that before Obamacare the USA had better health care. Obamacare is already costing more in premium costs.

National Health Insurance?
U.S. NO, just private plus Medicaid and Medicare England YES Canada YES

Percentage of men and women who survived a cancer five years after diagnosis:
U.S. 65%, England 46%, Canada 42%

Percentage of patients diagnosed with diabetes who received treatment within six months:
U.S. 93% England 15% Canada 43%

Percentage of seniors needing hip replacement who received it within six months:
U.S. 90% England 15% Canada 43%

Percentage referred to a medical specialist who see one within one month:
U.S. 77% England 40% Canada 43%

Number of MRI scanners (a prime diagnostic tool) per million people:
U.S. 71 England 14 Canada 18

Percentage of seniors (65+), with low income, who say they are in "excellent health":
U.S. 12% England 2% Canada 6%

Seems Private plus Medicaid and Medicare
“This president’s misguided policies made these tough times last longer,” Romney said.

The Federal Reserve stated just last week in its FOMC statement, that it thinks the outlook for the economy is so negative it intends to keep the Fed Funds Rate at near zero “at least through late 2014”, rather than its previous target of mid-2013?

“America needs a president who can fix the economy because he understands the economy, and I do, and I will,” Romney said.

World markets
Indonesia’s economy grew last year at the fastest pace since before the Asian financial collapse of 1996 as rising domestic spending counters a collapse in Indonesia’s exports caused by Europe’s debt crisis.

“Japan’s consumer-electronics makers are in a total breakdown,” said Masamitsu Ohki, a fund manager at Stats Investment Management Co., a Tokyo-based hedge fund. Japan’s biggest makers of phones, televisions and chips say they’ll lose about $17 billion this year

Witold Bahrke, a senior strategist at PFA Pension A/S in Copenhagen, which manages $45 billion said about Greece. “We can no longer completely exclude extreme scenarios such as a disorderly default or -- a bit further down the line -- an exit from the euro area. Investors have become fairly resilient towards news from Greece, but we are seeing small signs negative sentiment is taking over after the positive mood dominating markets recently.”
Forcing Greek bondholders is telling bondholders to start dumping Portugal’s and Italy’s bonds before they get 70% hair cuts (70% defaults). Portugal’s bond-market rout suggests investors are concerned about a Greek-style reduction in debt repayments.

Sharp, Japan’s largest maker of LCD panels, forecast its worst annual loss since its founding a century ago, with its president saying exporting is “nearly impossible” with the current demand.

Germany’s largest bank, Deutsche Bank AG, said fourth-quarter profit fell 76 percent as Europe’s debt crisis cut trading and the company wrote down losses.

The USA and the Free-World stock markets posted their highest gains in over 15 years while the highest proportion of European companies on record are missing profit estimates. “I am not optimistic about Hong Kong’s export performance in the first half of this year,” said John Tsang.

Singapore Airlines’ profit tumbled 53% on rising competition and costs.

France is in favor of a financial transaction tax. We think it will happen.

Asian markets (especially China) are failing to break out some on the second and third times at resistance levels. China’s stocks could fall 50% from here if Obama’s announced world wide “Great Depression” spreads there too.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=000001.SS&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=e200%2Ce100&a=&c=

Germany broke through the resistance levels: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

The Swiss broke through the resistance levels. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Emerging markets show strength. Brazil broke through
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

American Economy

Romney won Nevada by a decisive double-digit margin.

The Obama government considers adopting Japan’s socialist plan to allow negative interest rates at government debt auctions.

Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke said the central bank would do everything it can to prevent socialist Europe's financial crisis from damaging the U.S. economy.

Bernanke plans to start weaning USA Banks off borrowing Fed Funds at zero or negative interest rates and loaning at market rates. This would cut bank revenues by 30% to 40%.

Boston Scientific Corp. (BSX), the second-biggest cardiac-device maker, fourth-quarter earnings plummeted 55 percent.

Last week
Personal Income Dec 0.5% up from 0.1% A 6% per year increase (big bonuses?)
Personal Spending Dec 0.0% down from 0.1% No increase last Xmas NG
AM PCE Prices - Core Dec 0.2% up from 0.1% 2.4% core inflation rate OK
Employment Cost Index Q4 0.4% up from 0.3% Higher production costs NG
Case-Shiller 20-city Index Nov -3.7% dropping faster than October’s -3.4% NG
Chicago ProductionMI Jan 60.2 dropped from 62.5 production declined NG
Consumer Confidence Jan 61.1 a big drop from 64.5 not good
MBA Mortgage Index 01/28 -2.9% declines yet again -5.0% terrible
ADP Employment Change Jan 170K down from 325K Terrible
ISM Index Jan 54.1 up from 53.9 improved
Construction Spending Dec 1.5% up from 1.2% still depressed
Crude Inventories 01/28 4.175M up from 3.558M declining oil consumption
Challenger Job Cuts is a report, released monthly, that provides information on the number of announced corporate layoffs. Jan +38.9% up from+30.6% layoffs up is not good
Initial Claims 01/28 367K down from 377K good
Continuing Claims 01/21 3437K down 3554K good
Productivity-Prel Q4 0.7down from 2.3% Terrible
Unit Labor Costs Q4 1.2% increased -2.5% Bad

Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls Jan 243K up from 200K
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jan 257K up from 212K
Unemployment Rate Jan 8.3% down from 8.5% -
Hourly Earnings Jan 0.2% same 0.2%
Average Workweek Jan 34.5 slight increase from 34.4
Factory Orders Dec 1.1% down from 1.8%
ISM Services Jan 56.8 up from 52.6

This week
Feb 7 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Dec
Feb 8 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 02/04
Feb 8 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 02/04 -
Feb 9 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/04
Feb 9 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/28
Feb 9 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Dec
Feb 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Dec
Feb 10 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Feb
Feb 10 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Jan

Market outlook February 6, 2012

Market looks ready to peak.

The VIX indicates extreme complacency now. A sharp computer sell-off could end the current rally any time now and trigger stop-losses with huge losses.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Bulk shipments are now lower than any time since Obama took office, even lower the Obama lows of 2008. It collapsed to the lowest world bulk trade level that existed since Obama started the Obama Great Depression in one of his 2007-2008 campaign speeches to defeat his opponent. It is now less than 5% of the international trade that existed just before Obama was elected. In the past, a precipitous decline in this index, set off alarms around the financial world because it implies supply exceeds demand and something has to give.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Stock market update:
Asian Stock markets were mixed last night. China up 0%, Hong Kong down -0.2%, India up 0.5%, and Japan up 1.1%

European markets are down today in a range -0.2% to -0.8% half way through their day. Italy and Greece are outliers today, up the moment.

American market futures are flat about -0.3% in after hour trading at 8:00 AM EST.

We estimate the peak will be soon in a head-and-shoulders sell signal.

No comments: