Scientists claimed in the WSJ that Global Warming is the latest brand of Junk Science. Al Gore is the father of US Junk Science.

Scientists claimed in the WSJ that Global Warming is the latest brand of Junk Science. Al Gore is the was father of US Junk Science. Trofim Lysenko was father of USSR Junk Science. He claimed:
 he could transform rye into wheat and wheat into barley
 that song-birds gave birth to cuckoos,
 that weeds are transmutations of food grains
 Bacteria emerge from lifeless matter
 New hybrid chickens emerged from one egg fertilized by several roosters
 Cows can be provoked to produce fatter milk with a “chocolate diet” treatment

Through a series of intrigues and highly politicized public “discussions”, Trofim Lysenko managed to destroy practically all of the intelligent biologists in the USSR. More than 3000 biologists were fired, arrested, or executed. One, Nikolai Vavilov was disgracefully dismissed from the presidency of the Agriculture Academy in 1938 and died in prison in 1940. The genetic science in Russia was effectively destroyed until the death of Stalin in 1953 despite successive failures; Lysenko remained in the leadership of biology and briefly regained the position of the President of the Academy during Khrushchev.

Boone Pickens commented…We got some really stupid people in government. If we are going to be saps then we will lose the Canadian oil source that exceeds that of Saudi Arabia. Trucks are going to move to natural gas with or without Obama. Intelligent people do not try to avoid a Great Depression by first declaring one and then restricting energy supplies and trying to raise taxes. As Boon Pickens said today, We got some really stupid people in government.

World markets
The USA and the Free-World stock markets posted their best start to a year in over 15 years. But the highest proportion of European companies on record is missing profit estimates. “I am not optimistic about Hong Kong’s export performance in the first half of this year,” John Tsang said today. “If exports of goods were to plunge in the first quarter, the overall economy might take a downturn in that quarter.”

European Union regulators have blocked a merger between NYSE Euronext and Deutsche Boerse on the grounds the move would make it difficult for new players to compete.

French consumer spending fell 0.7 percent from November in December as surging joblessness and concern about looming tax increases prompted households to cut back spending. Before the 1970’s transaction costs helped prevent stock market flash crashes.

France is in favor of a financial transaction tax. We think it will happen.

The Juan was poised for its worst monthly loss in 18 years earlier before rallying after Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said progress had been made in talks with creditors.

We expect the markets will all form head-and-shoulder sell signals after breaking their 200 DMA. World trade “Bulk Shipments” have collapsed to the lowest world bulk trade level that existed since Obama declared the USA was in a depression in one of his 2007-2008 campaign speeches. Asian markets (especially China) are failing to break out some on the second and third times at resistance levels. China’s stocks could fall 50% from here if Obama’s announced “Great Depression” spreads there too.

The World Bank cut its forecast for global growth including China, by the most in three years.

Germany broke through the resistance levels: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

The Swiss broke through the resistance levels. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Emerging markets show strength. Brazil broke through
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

American Economy
This week
Personal Income Dec 0.5% up from 0.1% A 6% per year increase (big bonuses?)
Personal Spending Dec 0.0% down from 0.1% No increase last Xmas NG
AM PCE Prices - Core Dec 0.2% up from 0.1% 2.4% core inflation rate OK
Employment Cost Index Q4 0.4% up from 0.3% Higher production costs NG
Case-Shiller 20-city Index Nov -3.7% dropping faster than October’s -3.4% NG
Chicago ProductionMI Jan 60.2 dropped from 62.5 production declined NG
Consumer Confidence Jan 61.1 a big drop from 64.5 not good

Today
Feb 1 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 01/28
Feb 1 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Jan
Feb 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Jan
Feb 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending
Feb 1 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 01/28
Feb 1 2:00 PM Auto Sales Jan
Feb 1 2:00 PM Truck Sales Jan

This Week
Feb 2 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts Jan
Feb 2 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/28
Feb 2 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/21
Feb 2 8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q4
Feb 2 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs Q4
Feb 3 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jan
Feb 3 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jan
Feb 3 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Jan
Feb 3 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jan
Feb 3 8:30 AM Average Workweek Jan
Feb 3 10:00 AM Factory Orders Dec
Feb 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Jan

Market outlook February 1, 2012

Market looks thin and overbought. Extreme low volume means there is little “substance” or “commitment” behind the recent advance.

The VIX indicates extreme complacency now. A sharp computer sell-off could end the current rally any time now and trigger stop-losses with huge losses.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Bulk shipments continue to fall and have already collapsed to the lowest world bulk trade level that existed since Obama declared the USA was in a depression in one of his 2007-2008 campaign speeches. It is now less than 7% of the international trade that existed just before Obama was elected.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Stock market update:
Asian Stock markets were down last night. China down –1.1%, Hong Kong down -0.3%, India up 0.6%, and Japan up 0.1%

European stocks rose again after plunging Monday. Monday, Italy’s market closed down over 3%.
European markets are up today in a range 0.9% to 2% half way through their day. Greece is an outlier today, up 4% at the moment.

American market futures are up about 0.6% in after hour trading at 7:30 AM EST.

We estimate the peak will be soon in a head-and-shoulders sell signal.