Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Sept 5 The market is losing steam and the volatility of the trading volume is so flat it seems like only the machines are trading and all the humans are standing on the sidelines waiting for a big decline so there are real values again. Earnings reports are as fraudulent today as at every other historical market top and the cooked books of the earnings are only exposed when the management is replaced or the company collapses like Enron did. Enron and energy derivatives sunk the markets in 2000 and the charitable Obama-Dodd-Frank bank liar loan derivatives to unqualified home buyers sunk the markets in 2007. ETFs will likely be a large contributor to the next decline when their polarized structure leads to a vastly oversold stock market in collapse.the volatility of the trading volume is so flat it seems like only the machines are trading and all the humans are standing on the sidelines waiting for a big decline so there are real values again. Earnings reports are as fraudulent today as at every other historical market top and the crooked manipulations of the earnings are only exposed when the management is replaced. Enron and energy derivatives sunk the markets in 2000 and the charitable bank liar loans to unqualified home buyers sunk the markets in 2007. ETFs will likely be a large contributor to the next decline when their polarized structure leads to a vastly oversold stock market in collapse.

Sept 3   Putin is becoming a psychopathic danger to the entire world saying he has many nuclear missiles.   He is now in the same league as Stalin and Hitler were and ISIS is today.  The great psychopaths all thought they were serving a higher cause.  A few weeks ago we said peace would return when Israel focused on the Hamas leadership rather than Hamas rocket launch sites in populated areas long after Hamas has already left the area.  As soon as Israel focused on Hamas, Hamas sought a real peace agreement.  Now we need a few brave Russians to take out Putin and his close advisors and end his nuclear threat which would certainly destroy human civilization.
 
Sept 2  Obama abandoned the Ukrainians in the quiet deal he made with Putin on camera before the last USA election.  By denying the Ukrainians the strategic satellite information they needed, the socialist terrorist army in the Ukraine fell back and then fresh Russian troops invaded behind the Ukrainian lines over the Labor Day holiday and have left only one or two roads for the free Ukrainian Army to withdraw.  At this point the Russians can completely cut off the escape routes and slaughter the free Ukrainians.   Apparently in the deal that Obama gave Putin on camera just before the last election, Obama sold out the Ukrainians to get Putin to back off until after Obama was elected. 
 
Obama and Putin now appear to be collaborating to isolate and allow the Moslem Hamas terrorists destroy the state of Israel.  Israel is a state created primarily by the few that escaped Hitler’s and Stalin’s genocide in Europe just as Armenia is a state created primarily by Christians who fled the genocide of the Moslem Ottoman Empire before World War II.  The Moslem ISIS, or Islamic Terrorist State is using the same tactics the Moslems have always used.  ISIS conversion for other peaceful Moslems is simple, convert or die.   Terrorist Islamic conversion for Christians is the choice of, convert immediately, or let us steal everything you have and then run for your life.
 
World Economy
Sept 5  It seems that all of Africa and the Middle East  would have been better off if they had remained British and French Colonies.  And it isn’t just Moslem terrorism and their abuse of children down to nine years of age that is the problem.  It seems that in the Middle East and Africa the very best people are always killed or migrate to the west so Africa and the Middle East  seem to be devolving.  And if we get rid of the tyrant in Syria we end up with an Attila the Hun  lunatic that is twice as bad.  Africa and the Middle East always seem to go from bad to worse.
 
Sept 3 the Ukraine said a cease fire was agreed upon and world stock markets rose.  Now Putin has denied there is an agreement.
 
Sept 2  Merkle has squandered German prosperity giving up clean nuclear energy for expensive, difficult to maintain short lived alternative energy sources.  Meanwhile Merkle exposes Germany to the risk of the loss of gas from Russia.  Apparently the Germans are distancing themselves from the Obama administration as America no longer has a roll in world affairs.  England is now the free-world leader and Germany is now replacing America as the provider of the latest technology.  American corporation continue to flee America under Obama new Stupid Socialism which is the new world SS entity that directs all its intelligence into undermining all American opponents of Obama’s SS rather than on American security.   England and Germany will grow economically now as Obama shrinks the American economy further.
 
Egypt is now becoming the free world leader in the Middle East.  Obama tried unsuccessfully to deceive Americans and the world after the terrorist Moslem Brotherhood ignored the Egyptian Supreme Court and declared itself a Moslem State and began to prepare to impose Sharia Law dictatorship where conversion to a terrorist Islamic religion was required just like ISIS.  The current leader was democratically elected and has shown that Egyptian leadership in the Mid East is much better than the current American leadership under Obama.
The European FTSE is at the highs of 2000 and 2007 but MSNBC/PRAVDA is still saying buy and by-by.
 
If you look at Germany where the people have perhaps the strongest work ethic in the world, their stock market has topped out too but their trend is upward only because the dollar is continually weakening.
 
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing because their Yen is dropping faster than the dollar.
 
The French market is only about 60% of what it was fourteen years ago. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
The Swiss market still indicates stagnation since 2007. It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2007. Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by attacking Swiss confidentiality that had protected people from the Hitlers and Stalins of the past.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
American Economy
Sep 2
ISM Index Aug 59.0 up from 57.1 +
Construction Spending Jul 1.8%  up from -0.9% ++
Sep 03
MBA Mortgage Index 08/30 0.2% sharply lower from 2.8% --
Factory Orders Jul 10.5% absurd scatter 1.1% --
Sep 4
Challenger Job Cuts Aug -20.7% down from 24.4% -
ADP Employment Change Aug 204K down from 218K --
Initial Claims 08/30 302K  up from298K -
Trade Balance Jul -$40.5B still bad -$41.5B --
Productivity-Rev. Q2 2.3% down from 2.5% -
Unit Labor Costs Q2 -0.1% lower pay 0.6% -
ISM Services Aug 59.6 up from 58.7 +
Sep 5
Nonfarm Payrolls Aug 142K down from 209K ---
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Aug 134K down from 198K---
Unemployment Rate Aug 6.1% under counted ----
Average Workweek Aug 34.5 approaching the level in France ---
 
The Markets
Sept 5 
The market  is losing steam and the volatility of the trading volume is so flat it seems like only the machines are trading and all the humans are standing on the sidelines waiting for a big decline so there are real values again.  Earnings reports are as fraudulent today as at every other historical market top and the crooked manipulations of the earnings are only exposed when the management is replaced.
  
Sept 3  Sam Zell, noted for picking past stock market highs, said today that if he would now be in cash rather than the stock market unless the investor really understands the companies he is investing in very well.
 
Sept 2  Volume on the NYSE is down 50% but the human trading volume has been replaced more than 50% by automated machine trading.  It will be interesting to see if the new machine logic can handle a 1987 style panic that dropped the price of many stocks more than 50% during the day and left the entire market down over 20% in the first day of the decline.
 
The technical traders think we are in the month of market break down.  A few weeks ago we showed their public indicators that pointed to a downturn occurring about the beginning of September.    But usually there is a recovery of about half the first decline before a long term bear market decline ensues.   A very careful person could consider shorting a company that is beginning and covering it about a week after the first decline of close to 10%.  After the first sharp selloff there will be some very good stocks that should not be down much but are in fact down more than 10%.  A very careful person could consider cherry picking those strong companies that are still strong but also consider getting back out within a week or two because after that first selloff and recovery we expect the heavy traders to pile into short selling.
 
Google has a search machine with many good selections and you can save the results in an Excel spreadsheet and capture the HTML’s that let you automatically plot each case that you want to look at.
 
 Look at the volatility index and you see complacency and that the market could fall much faster when volume gets back to normal. This market has little volume or volatility.  So when volume picks up suddenly, past history says the market usually plunges.  That is not a good moment in time for holding equities.
 
 World market updates:
 
 
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