Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Sept 25 Warning: Look at the performance of URE back to its inception in 2007. You will see that despite the greatest rally ever, the people who held URE from 2007 until today have lost approximately 73% of their equity. That is the calamity that will likely befall all bull market ETF’s in a bear market. In a bear market, the bear market ETF’s are the ones that go up. Since almost all ETF’s were started at the market bottom, most investors are complacent and don’t even have a clue as to the danger they face with long ETFs after making enormous gains in the bull market. Holding long ETF’s into a bear market will be one of the biggest new disasters to face the economy and may even cause panic selling of all stocks. At the low in 2009 the original URE investors who held on to URE had lost more than 95% of their equity if they sold then. Today they would still be down about 73% even after the tremendous rally. The long ETF’s are likely to be a part of the cause of the next financial crisis.

 
Fox Business reported that the number of mortgage applications for the week ended Friday fell 4.1% from the week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association weekly survey.  The unadjusted purchase index rose 2% from the previous week but was down 16% from the year-earlier period, the MBA said.  But somehow the stock market media claimed record purchases.  They did that by comparing with 2008 when the economy was in collapse.  Not only does the Federal Government slant the news, but so do MSNBC and others that have to keep their advertisers happy.
 
Sept 24   MSNBC Squawk Box concluded today that Obama has really messed up America.  Each 1% increase in the FED interest rate will cost Americans an additional $150,000,000,000 in budget deficit per year.  It is unlikely that the FED will ever be able to raise the rates as high as 4% for twenty years without causing an economic depression.   Obama’s Quantitative Easing policy has increased the wealth of only the top 10% of Americans and has unemployed 26% of the poorer Americans.  And unemployment will get worse if we raise rates.  That is the bind we are in.  QE took Japan’s fastest growing economy in 1990 and trapped them in stagflation for 24 years thus far.  In American dollars Japan’s stock market has gone down for 24 years.  Today, Japan’s market is only approaching its level in 2007 and is 60% lower than the Japanese market was in 1990.  See the chart below.
 
 
Sept 23   Even MSNBC Pravda’s Jim Cramer had “Sell Signal” plastered all over his studio last night.   The classic “head and shoulders” formations have formed in several indices.   Mass inversions of corporations cause Obama to cripple American tax revenue as corporations and wealthy citizens flee harassment by the Obama-Holder-IRS regime in America.  Home sales dropped 5.3% from last year showing the building recovery is over.
 
Washington, DC is now littered with surveillance devices designed to spy on Americans.  More than 18 such devices mimicking legitimate cell towers have been found.
 
Last January the Obama Administration said they met their socialized medicine goal of 10 million people.  Eight months later they say they have 7 million people who have joined.  Everyone else apparently will have to pay the penalty for missing the deadlines.  In the mean time the number of people claiming the disability entitlements and who pay nothing has doubled in the past year.  
The "Reader's Digest Version" of OBAMACARE.
Here are the 10,535 pages of ObamaCare condensed to 4 sentences...
1. In order to insure the uninsured, we first have to uninsure the insured.
2. Next, we require the newly uninsured to be re-insured.
3. To re-insure the newly uninsured, they are required to pay extra charges to be re-insured.
4. The extra charges are required so that the original insured, who became uninsured, and
then became re-insured, can pay enough extra so that the original uninsured can be insured, which is their free entitlement as US citizens, except for you fools who like to work for a living.
This redistribution of wealth" ... or, by its more common name, Socialism.   
REMEMBER this on November 4th!!
 
World Economy
Sept 26  The fiction of economic strength anywhere in the world is evaporating.  New internet companies are fart burning through their money with neither profits nor rising revenue.  Today’s exorbitant prices are justified by growth of subscribers not profits and get subscribers and volume is how the FED cash is being burned. There is no rational argument for today’s stock prices other than too much cash chasing too few companies.
Sept 25   ISIS has stopped advertising their brutality as the world’s leading nations begin bombing them.  The new problem is that it gives ISIS the opportunity to send terrorists home with a cover story that they were disillusioned with ISIS.  The world knows they are all criminals and even the quitters are psychopaths that must be rehabilitated in prisons.
 
Sept 24   China is on the edge of a real estate melt down and the communists are beginning to ruin Hong Kong.
 
Argentina is now the poster child for irresponsible fiscal policy and defaults.  The Obama socialists all loved Hugo Chavez of Venezuela.
“When Hugo Chávez was running in his first successful presidential campaign, back in 1998, he was asked point blank in several television interviews whether or not he was a communist. His reply was identical to the one given by Fidel Castro to Princeton University students during his visit to the United States in 1959: “I am a humanist.” Years later, on consolidating total power in his own hands, Chávez again emulated Fidel and confessed to being “a convinced follower of Marxist-Leninist ideology.” Today, Obama says he is a humanist too, not a communist.
 
Sept 23   The dollar weakened on air strikes on ISIS in Syria and European stocks dropped overnight.
 
The No. 1 song is in the British Empire is in reaction to a terrorist religion. 
 
If you look at Germany where the people have perhaps the strongest work ethic in the world, their stock market has topped out too but their trend is upward only because the dollar is continually weakening.
 
Obama’s incompetence gave the FED the opportunity to cripple free enterprise the same way socialist Japan did in 1990.  Japan has never recovered.  Japan’s stock market appears to have topped again and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing because their Yen is dropping faster than the dollar.
 
The French market is only about 60% of what it was fourteen years ago. At its most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
The Swiss market still indicates stagnation since 2007. It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2007. Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by attacking Swiss confidentiality that had protected people from the Hitlers and Stalins of the past.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
American Economy
Bret Stephens wsj "what Obama knows"… not very much indeed. 
“I've been thinking about this as it becomes clear that, even at an elementary level, Mr. Obama often doesn't know what he's talking about. It isn't so much his analysis of global events that's wrong, though it is. The deeper problem is the foundation of knowledge on which that analysis is built.”
“Here, now, is reality: In Japan, the economy is contracting. China's real-estate market is a bubble waiting to burst. Indonesia's democracy may be solidifying, but so are Islamism and the persecution of religious minorities. Democracy has been overthrown in Thailand. The march toward freedom in Burma—supposedly one of Mr. Obama's (and Hillary Clinton’s) signature diplomatic victories—has stalled. India may do better than before under its new prime minister, Narendra Modi, but gone are the days when serious people think of India as a future superpower. The government of Pakistan is, as ever, on the verge of collapse.”
“As for Latin America, Argentina just defaulted for the second time in 13 years. Brazil is in recession. Venezuela is a brutal dictatorship. Ecuador is well on its way to becoming one.”
 
Sept 23  
Existing Home Sales Aug 5.05M down from 5.15M –
FHFA Housing Price Index Jul 0.1% sharply lower from 0.4% --
Sept 24  
Mortgage Index (*transactions) 09/20 -4.1% sharply lower 7.9%---
New Home Sales Aug 504K 420K 435K 427K 412K
Initial Claims 09/20 293K up from 280K --
Continuing Claims 09/13 2439K up from  2429K --
Sep 25
Durable Orders Aug -18.2%  sharply down from 22.6%--
Sep 26
GDP - Third Estimate Q2 4.6%  not even credible
GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q2 2.1% flat at 2.1% -- not credible- energy is down and housing prices are flat.  Deflation has started in some countries.
Michigan Sentiment - Final Sep 84.6 flat 84.6
 
The Markets
Sept 26  Buying was sharply lower Thursday but sellers appeared numerous and previously opened buy orders at lower prices were executed for the sellers to take advantage of dropping the vast majority of stocks.  There was no panic selling but active  buying evaporated and standing buy orders at lower prices were triggered. 
Sept 25   The volume of shares exchanged in yesterday’s rally showed no enthusiasm.  At these lofty stock valuations companies are being caught gradually delaying the recognition of expenses and speeding up the recognition of income.  That artificially inflates profits.  Once the market plummets, the corporations return to conservative accounting practices and recognize their losses while their stock prices are low.  The term used is,”They take their bath.”  They clean up their books.  At the highs the MSNBC pundits blindly pump out the distorted corporate and government statistics.  Then they are quiet about the bad news that is quickly dumped on shareholders.  This makes the market decline very sharp and deep compared to the bull marked where the data manipulation occurs slowly.  One often used trick is a new artificially priced derivative.  Another is the trick of taking debt off the books like corporations did until 2000 and even Greece and Cyprus did until 2008.  Once the stock market starts taking the bath, it spreads fast. 
 
As we warned before, look at URE back to the start of the real estate ETF and you will have an idea what a DISASTER ETFs have in store.  URE is up several hundred percent since 2009 but is still 70% lower than it was when it first came out in 2007.  This will be the newest disaster that small investors will face.   Long ETFs will be a major disaster in the next bear marked.
 
Sept 24   Market volume still has not picked up but stock prices are weakening at a faster rate.  Alibaba is incredibly overvalued in today’s market. 
Sept 23   Is the meltdown beginning?  The Market Cash Flow index had a pronounced head and shoulder sell signal with the activity the last three weeks.  S&P 500 fell by largest margin in seven weeks.   But a strong cash flow exit is high volume dependent and volume has remained moderate.
 
The Stock market is now cash driven not value driven.  The cash in-flow is out of control.  When one asset becomes inflated it is used as the basis for loans or in many cases the inflated buy-out offers for other assets driving up prices and debt.  While bank leverage is limited often to less than 20:1 the leverage of corporations becomes unlimited because the asset prices themselves have no regulation limits.  As soon as cash flow begins to contract the house of cards will collapse and the FED knows that and is so terrified it has been trapped like Japan was back in 1990.  Look at the Japanese stock market since 1990 to see what America now has in store. 
 
The S&P index shows the current highs are more exaggerated than seen in the other indexes.
 
 Look at the volatility index and you see complacency and that the market could fall much faster when volume gets back to normal. This market has little volume or volatility.  So when volume picks up suddenly, past history says the market usually plunges.  That is not a good moment in time for holding equities.
 
 World market updates:

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