Monday, December 1, 2008

Confidence that Obama is centrist and not a socialist is raising hope in America.

We believe the window of opportunity to buy into the market near the low will close within a week because Obama is raising American confidence and the markets are poised to surge upward.

Energy price increases where primarily responsible for recent lower consumer spending not the variable rate mortgages. People were hit with the doubling of heating and cooling costs not just higher interest rates last year. So dropping oil prices gave a $1000 Christmas gift to many people living in North America and Europe.

The drop in the oil price was just in time for people to fill their heating oil tanks for the winter with $1000 savings from prices just four months ago. In many case the cost this season is lower than last year and still declining.

Also, any people we know cut gasoline consumption 25% to 50% since last year. For some it was as easy as husband and wife switching cars so that the energy efficient car was used for distant commuting and the turkey gas gobbler car was used for local driving only when the efficient car was not available. This cutback in consumption will cause oil prices to drop far below the level two years ago and is showing up now as the biggest effective tax reduction in five years for main street shoppers. So retail sales will be up this season and consumer confidence will rise now.

Asian stocks snapped a six-day winning streak with investors realizing seven straight up days was asking too much. European stocks however are up 2% to 3%. American stocks are poised to start out fairly low but are ready to surge again this week. Our indicators are saying that this is the last week of opportunity to get aboard before the market surges and everyone says the market’s historic bottom is behind us. That is based on volume, MACD and Parabolic SAR trends.

The media is as over pessimistic now as they were over optimistic last year when a little truth on their part would have helped investors lighten up near the market’s top. Last year we surveyed the shopping malls and warned that consumers stayed home and parking lots were mostly empty. It was not until January of 2008 that the media had to tell the truth about the FED's dismal retail sales report. This year we are seeing parking lots much fuller yet estimates are only that sales are up 7% from last year. We expect the media’s pessimism will not end until it is too late for investor’s to get back into the market at its historically low prices. January 2009 will be when the clueless media must officially report the surge in retail sales.

Again, we believe the window of opportunity to buy into the market near the low will close within a week. Confidence in Obama being a centrist and not a socialist is raising hope in America.

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