Tuesday, December 2, 2008

We see the intermediate and short term trends now as upward and rocky.

Volatility is high now because the market is highly shorted and hedge funds are pounding the markets trying to scare out nervous investors. China appears to be stabilizing their market now to maintain political stability.

We believe the window of opportunity to buy into the market near the low will close within a week because the markets are poised to surge upward. Volatility remains high and the opportunity to buy in at reasonable prices will vanish quickly as the short side of the market gradually is trapped in a cascade of short squeezes like the market has never seen before.

"Mad Money" and other stock pumpers who claimed they could make money buying stocks near their high could do so only briefly because their recommended stocks rose upon the recommendation's announcement and then fell such that those buying the stocks after the recommendations (essentially every small investor) lost money. That has been reported by many that have followed pump and dump strategies. But now the "Mad" money is on the short side and they recommend that their listeners sell at every rally and thus bail short sellers out as the short sellers still try to pound the market down.

But the market has lost every cent the "buy high and hold" advisors have claimed could be made in the past thereby discrediting their long strategy. And their calculations were always bogus anyway because when you track the price history of stocks and funds back in time you obviously are tracking equities that survived until today and you are not accounting for the equities of the enterprises that failed along the way and were removed from every market average as soon as they stagnated. Indicies replace descending stocks with advancing stocks as a matter of course.

The new selling strategy Mad Money recommends will be discredited next. The market manipulators previously adhered to at most a 30% to 70% short to long hedge position in the previous bull market. We would expect they are at an incredibly risky position of 70% or more short at this time to take advantage of the bear market and short sellers have already squeezed more out of the market than our recession can possibly deliver.

We expect the squeeze will grow over a period of at least 90 days. The folks who now dump and spread negativity fully believe in their strategy because it has worked for a several months now. So as the market rises they will increase their short position and precipitate volatile sell offs as we saw yesterday. Ultimately their losses will accumulate and the upside volatility will grow and reach a climax as the short sellers are forced to cover their positions and go bankrupt. The run up in prices will last until the short positions drop well below 30% again. That should take several months.

Therefore we see the intermediate and short term trends now as upward and rocky.

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