Wednesday, December 24, 2008

What we need is courage and common sense not the greed of geckos

But Jim Paulsen however says we need more Greed.

"Strategist Jim Paulsen at Wells Capital Management said "we need people wanting to step and buy cheap assets. Greed and value are starting to entice buyers, and I think that is a good sign that maybe we're at the front end of the end of this thing." The secret for January, Paulsen says, is to help unfreeze the panic in the healthy economic players who have jobs and businesses; to persuade them that "it's O.K. to go out and spend some money again. It might be O.K. to hire again. It might be O.K. to buy a car."

Jim Cramer said Goldman Sachs December 16 conference call outlined the bleak crises we are in. Analysts like Jim Cramer have started bashing the market again because they see now that they missed the bottom and they look bad. They would like the markets to drop again so that they can tell investors to get in and claim they called the bottom. Rapid deleveraging had put pressure on the markets. The Goldman Sacks December 16 conference call on the global economic crisis says the higher risks today are driving Goldman to better risk management. We listened to it and it was an example of good prognostics and it drove GS up14.35% that day. You can listen to it at:

http://www2.goldmansachs.com/our-firm/investors/presentations/current/2008-fourth-quarter-results.html

One of the problems is that the deal makers are not doing stock swaps because they can’t take any taxpayer money that way. They want to do deals with taxpayer money now so they can walk away wealthy and not have to actually merge two companies and make it work. But that will change as the market continues to improve.

The banks like GS are leveraged 8.8 to 1 and cannot afford to loan money to Geckos because due to leverage they lose equity 8.8 times as fast as the Wall Street geckos like Madoff and the company, Cerberus, fleece investors.

Daimler Benz still owns 20% of Chrysler. The only thing Cerberus has going for it now is it contributed $millions to Republican candidates and nothing to the Democrats. (You can confirm this yourself) But billions in taxpayer aid could change all that. The perception of Wall Street corruption will only grow if the new president extends the loans next year and then Cerberus starts a similar payoff for the Democrats using taxpayer money.

We said that it was first the failure of the Bush administration to comprehend the moral hazard of loose "consequence free" financial oversight and secondly the slamming of the economy by democrat candidates that caused the current crisis of confidence that brought down the most leveraged and most corrupt American financial institutions. As the situation worsened financial markets demanded more collateral on capital exchanges and that caused the cash crisis. Now as the market bottoms and then reverses direction, the perceived risk will begin to decline and the cash crisis will turn into a flood of cash liquidity. That is when investors, corporations, and funds will flood the stock market with cash to buy up stocks which are now the best buying opportunity we have seen since before the Regan administration which gave us the longest growth period in American history.

Corporations are actually sitting on the side lines loaded with cash right now. This is the best opportunity they have ever had to buy back their stock without increasing their debt.

Yesterday US volume was again historically low and the market declined. That is much better than record low volume and a market advance. What it illustrates is the highly volatile shorting has subsided and shorting is becoming high risk at this point.

All Jim Cramer’s and other analyst’s efforts to induce another market low so that they can give a belated buy recommendation... has been to no avail so far.

Today Asian and European markets are net down slightly indicating international selling is also subsiding. The US futures show little selling pressure as well.

Again we recommend you listen to the up-beat Goldman Sachs report yourself to see why their stock jumped more than 14% that day when the analysts such as Jim Cramer tried to paint that conference call as a doomsday call. The dooms day analysts all feel very badly now that they missed calling the first and then missed the double market bottom call and so they want to induce a triple bottom if possible.

Fat chance they have.

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