Tuesday, December 30, 2008

President elect Obama's economic Gatorade. Analysts should do some analysis from time to time.

CNBC analysts should do some analysis from time to time.

CNBC analysts are predicting the USA markets will bottom before Asian markets. Jim Cramer said the Asian markets still have a way to go before they bottom. Someone on CNBC later last night said that the market still has to fall 90% from where it is today before it is the bottom… and he said it with a straight face.

Someone needs to wake them up. The following Asian markets bottomed at the end of October 2008.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EHSI#symbol=%5EHSI;range=1y

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=1y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Even Japan looks like it bottomed back then.
Japan

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EN225#symbol=%5EN225;range=1y

No one can predict the future and another war or a terrorist attack could put the world in a tailspin. But the extreme negative attitude of almost all the stock advisors is usually a sign that we bottomed.

Jim Cramer said we need to see the selling panic when prices decline rapidly and everyone is selling before we have a bottom. I would ask Jim what does he think happened in October 2008.

Jim Cramer said we need to see low volume at a bottom because everyone who would or could sell was sold out. I would ask Jim what does he think is the cause of the low market volume for the past few weeks?

It is possible that in six months we will be up 30% and then down 20% so we may almost be flat as happened in the 1970's. That was because Jimmy Carter gave America a new economy called stagflation. That could happen with the Obama policies too. But if that is the type of policy we see we should have time to sell everything before the policy takes effect.

Personally I see president elect Obama as giving the money to the private sector not state and federal bureaucracies and hence he is planning a private sector stimulation package not socialization. Countries with inflation print the money to pay their federal workers, police, and the military needed to maintain their proletariat socialist dictatorships. The bureaucrats then spend the money and buy everything so the stores are bare. By the time the private sector has the money inflation has wiped out its value.

But president elect Obama indicates the stimulation packages will go to individuals, private vendors, and private contractors not to our government bureaucracy. So we should jolt ourselves back into prosperity with Obama's economic Gatorade.

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