2015 year end report: On Friday Dec 18 before many people left for the holidays there was an unusually large outflow of money from all the American stock markets. It was much larger than that time last year. Yet the year end decline overall has taken about two months longer than we estimated. And Jim Cramer has said to sell a few times but has not said sell-sell-sell like he did when he panicked in 2008 after the market was already plummeting. With that, there are two possibilities. Either this decline will be as great as we estimated but will take a few months longer to evolve, or else the economy and the bottom of the market will soon fall faster than estimated.

             So far we have seen the near complete collapse of the pharmacy stocks and energy stocks.  But all of the sectors have many similar excesses to unwind.  Therefore while the decline began in earnest in late August (within the date range for which we estimated) it has not yet followed through as fast as expected.  We estimated the panic mode would set in at least a full month earlier.  This means the recession will likely last longer than we estimated.  That means the bottom could be as late as June unless the panic mode begins in earnest in early January. 

           How this all ends will depend a great deal on the November 2016 election outcome.  If a dynamic and honest entrepreneur is elected we could have an historic period of economic growth beginning in 2017.  If another stupid, incompetent, corrupt socialist is elected, the USA will continue to descend from being the preeminent world economy it had been for almost 130 years of leadership based on the philosophy, Constitution, and laws of the Founding Fathers of the American Revolution.  They provided a system free from and against the tyranny of stupid, incompetent, and unjust socialist systems that take from the producers to buy the allegiance of a majority voter base of ignorant government dependents.   

            Ayn Rand was the American philosopher who best described the true free enterprise system.  She also knew religious oppression so she became an atheist because many Christians confuse socialism with kindness and charity which are personal helping hands not a government right.  Socialism results in a dependent underclass that usually votes 98% for the aspiring socialist dictator.  Ayn Rand called her philosophy Objectivism.

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/a/ayn_rand.html

http://indianexpress.com/article/lifestyle/books/16-inspiring-quotes-by-best-selling-author-ayn-rand-on-her-birthday/

12-29-2015  The fools in the leftist press and the incompetent socialists playing with the American economy think the American public is stupid.  Today they said:   

New York Times – 12PM EST

Home Prices and Consumer Confidence Show Strength, Reports Say:

Steady job growth, low mortgage rates and tight inventories helped spur rising home prices in October, and a stronger job market lifted consumer confidence in December, separate reports showed on Tuesday.

         Case-Shiller 20-city Index Oct 2015 5.5% flat from 5.5% ….No improvement

         Consumer Confidence Dec 2015 96.5 up from 92.6   …..Half of what it was in 1999.

During the Dotcom bubble Consumer Confidence was 182 and one year after Obama first took office it was down to 26.  Yes, now it is almost back to the level before the Liar Loan derivative scheme imploded.   The housing market imploded due to the Dodd-Frank-Obama Liar Loan scam that was the basis of liar loan mortgage loan derivatives that were sold world wide for investments.   It was a “good socialist thing” that was supposed to get minorities settled in their own homes.  The Dodd-Frank-Obama scheme collapsed and caused the world wide recession just before Obama was elected.  Dodd and Frank took the fall for Obama and disappeared off the radar.  Two huge socialist housing mortgage agencies were created for it and they still exist today.

Definition of a liar loan

A low or no documentation loan, often in the form of a mortgage, provided to a borrower with no assets, no income (NINA). "Liar" refers to the borrower indicating a level of income that is not correct, for instance saying that he or she earned $50,000 while in fact being unemployed. Because physical documentation is rarely required, the borrower is able to obtain the loan. Low documentation loans were originally designed for borrowers with high credit scores but who wished to keep personal income private.
http://www.investorwords.com/7157/liar_loan.html
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=consumer_sentiment
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=case