Monday, December 7, 2015

Dec 11, 2015 Today the Jimmy Cramer index is very gloomy but not yet sell-sell-sell. The last time the market was down almost 50% of the way before Jimmy said sell-sell-sell. He is late from what we predicted and so is the stock market. The recent rally attempt delayed what we predicted by over a month. But the bear market has now resumed.

         The Fed reported that Americans lost $1.2 Trillion dollars invested in stocks in the 3rd quarter.  The high yield bond fund, Third Avenue, today barred withdrawals as all junk-bonds are plunging.  Hugh losses are causing calls and forcing the sellout of margin accounts.  This is the beginning of the second leg of this bear market.  The third leg is usually the worst.  That probably will end in February 2016.  But a forth leg could go slightly lower.  We think it will all be over by summer 2016 and possibly as early as March.
           The number of Americans killed at Pearl Harbor was fewer than was the number killed at the Twin Towers.  Yet, Democrat President FDR sent the entire population of the American Japanese citizens on Hawaii and on the west coast into prison camps for the duration of WWII.  And none in the Democrat party had any problem with that.   After Twin Towers fell George Bush went to pray at the Mosque in lower Manhattan and the “stupid party” had nothing nice to say about that.    When President Jimmy Carter of the Democrat Party threw out all the visiting Iranian Moslems in 1979 non within the “Democrat party” had any problem with that.   Today ISIS and other Moslem terrorists are from every ethnic and national background and are far more dangerous than Khomeini ever was.   But times have changed and today we have the “stupid party” of posh socialists who vastly outnumber the intelligent Democrats.   So when Donald Trump said that we need to halt the inflow of Moslems from the terror center of the Mid-East until Obama’s “stupid party” gets its act together and vets the immigrants so that they do not bring Islamic terrorism to American soil, the “stupid party” and the new “stupid leftist media” went ballistic.  The “stupid leftist media” outrage is only an indication of the absolute debt of the stupidity of most of the news media and members of the “Stupid Party.”  They mean well but their brains fell out and they now think that makes them more open minded.
Dec 11 Core PPI Nov 0.3% up from -0.3% high inflation that encourages the Fed to raise rates.
Dec 11 Auto Sales auto Nov -0.2% down from 0.0%
Dec 11 Business Inventories Oct 0.0% down from 0.1% not to be confused with high retail inventories.
Dec 11 10:00 Mich Sentiment Dec 91.8 fell from 93.1
Retail sales are continuing downward.
         Dec 10, 2015  The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to a five-month high last week, signaling a massive deterioration in the labor market as the underlying trend is counter the normal year end Christmas rally when many people are hired.  Initial claims for unemployment benefits increased 13,000 to 282,000 for the week ended Dec. 5, the highest level since July.
           The greatest threat that Trump faces is from the few dunces that are still high up in the GOP power structure.  Those dunces are secretly planning how to get rid of Trump.  They are advocating assisting the other candidates hoping several will run in the primaries and get enough delegates so that Trump will not get the GOP nomination on the first ballot.  Then, all the delegates will be free to nominate any one of the top five GOP candidates.  Then they expect to have Jeb Bush selected as the Republican candidate for president.  That would be legal but it is likely that so many Americans will be so disgusted with the Hillary vs. Bush choice that Trump support will surge anyway and he will run and win.  Then when Trump wins, the GOP will be dissolved and a new more nationalistic majority party will emerge and the “stupid party”, the worker’s party, and the socialist’s party will be just three minority parties just like they have in Europe.  Yes, the phenomena we are seeing today in America is a revulsion to Islamic terrorism and the re-emergence of nationalism that has not been seen since WWII and the American total revulsion to National (NAZI) and International (Soviet) socialist war mongers.  After the 2016 election it will be payback time for all international politicians, corporations, and nations currently meddling in the American election process.  America will no longer share technology and wealth with covert enemies.   Some here will advocate that Americans will be defined as those born in America that who swear allegiance to America and the American Constitution.  Non-Americans may be allowed to stay in America but not vote.
         A Bloomberg poll says that 65% of likely GOP primary voters back Trump's Muslim ban.  Why not, it worked when Jimmy Carter did the same thing in 1979 but the “Stupid Party” couldn’t even remember they originated that policy.  And a few stupid GOP candidates joined in with Obama and Clinton who have set the bar for competency at an all time low.  Since the other candidates ridiculed the Trump idea one can assume Trump will get 65% of the primary vote and the other candidates will divide up the remaining 35%.  When he made his statement yesterday Trump’s favorable poll number among all the 14 GOP candidates went up from 30% to 38% and up to 65% for all American voters.   That is much higher than Clinton’s favorability level which has hit an all time low of 42% of the “stupid party” primary voters.
            All the stock indices plunged again today while Cramer was still out claiming the economy is booming and new hiring is great and the Fed will raise rates.  We are very disappointed with Jimmy because we had predicted more than a year ago that he would say “Sell-sell-sell” by November 2015.  Jimmy continues to say that the jobs numbers last month (November) were great.  Jimmy apparently doesn’t know much and just does what he is told.  Of course the jobs numbers are going no where, but Jimmy is clueless.  November 2015 was down 50% from November 2014.  But we agree that the Fed should begin to raise rates.
            Rahm Emanuel the “stupid party” master of dirty tricks and deceit should resign for his cover-up of the murder of a Chicago black youth because Rahm was afraid it would hurt his campaign for mayor in 2014.
         Dec 9, 2015  The stock market today rose in the morning and then dropped trice as fast through the afternoon.  The DJI is again using the 65DMA and is cutting the plots off below August 24 to deceive novice investors who look at the plots and erroneously conclude we are in a Bull market.   We don’t actually know if it is deliberate (it could be WSJ stupidity) but whenever they show the truth of the 200DMA with an annual plot the stock market plummets.  But they are still deceiving investors either way.
         U.S. wholesale inventories fell in October as businesses stepped up efforts to reduce the stockpile of unsold merchandise, suggesting inventories would again be a drag on growth in the fourth quarter and that it could be accomplished with savings from reduced production expenses and job cuts.   But the benefit will be short lived
Consumer Credit Oct $16.0B down from $28.9B as the “stupid party” economy now begins to sharply contract.   The “stupid party” has made a mess of everything abroad and at home.   And Hilary makes Obama look intelligent by comparison. 
 
Dec 8, 2015    Yesterday Donald Trump, currently the most popular 2016 US candidate for president, evoked “stupid party” outrage by suggesting that foreign Moslems be banned from America until the mental disease of Islamic terrorism is eradicated.  Trump said, “It is obvious to anybody their hatred is beyond comprehension,” “Where this hatred comes from and why, we will have to determine. Until we are able to determine and understand this problem and the dangerous threat it poses, our country cannot be the victims of horrendous attacks by people that believe only in jihad, and have no sense of reason or respect for human life.”   From the WSJ pg1 today.
         A poll released yesterday shows that 51% of Moslems in America already want to live under Sharia Law rather than the American Constitution and government.  25% of Moslems in America today already believe in Jihad (killing Christians, Hindus, and Jews in America).  That was from an Obama government poll.
57% of all hate crimes in America are against Jews.  Where is Hilary on this problem?
          We believe we are approaching the bottom in the oil market collapse but since we expect the general bear market is about to take over the general market again,  we would use this opportunity to wait and prepare  for other selling opportunities as the stock market declines for another three or four months.  Oil tends to lead up at the beginning and down at the end of the economic cycle.   Crude oil is at a long term low and cannot go much lower for any length of time.  Oil is going to turn around before the overall market.  We expect the market to bottom in a few months but will hit a low somewhere between 50% and 90% down from the 2015 highs.
          Rahm Emanuel is accused of the cover-up of the 16 bullet shooting of a walking non-aggressive 17 yr old black boy in Chicago.  The cover-up was done because Rahm Emanuel was trying to get re-elected mayor at the time of the shooting.   Rahm Emanuel helped organized Obama’s dirty tricks.  He got the IRS to harass Christian corporations, historical societies, conservatives, and vocal opponents.  He is believed to have even had the original idea for Holden’s “Fast and Furious.”
         Hilary lied to the American public when she knowingly and falsely accused a Jewish film maker of inciting the terrorists to kill the three Americans at the Libyan Embassy.  On the same day she told her family the truth that it was a terrorist attack.  That was a crime against all Jews and in addition she and Obama told the press the Jewish film maker went to prison.  Hilary and Obama knew it was a lie and a slander against Jews.  She and Obama stuck to their lie until after the election.  Hilary and Obama are similar to Rahm Emanuel because they apparently lied to keep the Obama/Hilary team from being thrown out of office.   Israel knows that Obama and Hilary are enemies of Israel.  Obama and Hilary have no inclination to tell the world that the problem in the Mid East is the virulent Islamic Terrorism of Jihad.
         The WSJ is back to a 65DMA that makes it look like a bull market because they only start it after the Aug 24 decline.  Take a look at how it is designed to deceive any unwary investor.  The WSJ is obviously trying to deceive the public.  Such alternating positive deception followed by bearish reality is how the WSJ pumps up volatility and puts small investors at a disadvantage.  The WSJ doesn’t even show the NYSE any more because that is how the total market is moving not the few best performing stocks. 
         Dec 7, 2015    Remember when we said the recent rally was manipulated and that even the WSJ was in on it because they did not even show the 200 day moving averages for the easily manipulated indices, the DJI and the NASDAQ.  Well today the WSJ let loose and are now letting out all the bad news they withheld during their short rally.  Today they finally showed the 200DMA’s and it tells everyone this short rally was not the start of a Bull Market and no new breakout occurred in spite of the WSJ Pollyanna manipulation.
       Let the bankruptcy toll now begin as the oil cartel lets the oil flow unlimited. 
       Let the bankruptcy toll now begin as the corporation earnings plummet due to high leveraged corporate debt.
       Let the bankruptcy toll hit its peak as the interest rates explode upward as they did at the end of the Jimmy Carter “stupid party” fiasco.  Under Jimmy Carter the prime rate tripled quickly from 5% to 15%.  To match that the Fed only has to triple rates from 0.2% to 0.6%
       Let the bankruptcy toll begin as doubled up layered and leveraged corporate debt that circumvented Fed bank stress test safeguards puts the American banks at high risk again.  Debt has been bundled and leveraged up from fly-by-night enterprise companies to fly-by-night investors and hedge funds and finally they became the “dynamite” high profit layered and leveraged holdings of the investment banks.  All of that is about to implode.
        The Fed has found flaws in the way they do bank stress tests and is scrambling to correct the problem of corruption of regulators who are schmoozed or later offered jobs or are given favors.  The bank capital requirements should have increased with the combination of layers of leveraging of investment and money supply.
       US Wheat exports have plummeted to a ten year low and are predicted to hit a 44 year low before the “stupid party” and Obama’s Fed Chairperson can be ejected after 2016.
Start-up crowd funding with Tech’s hometown banks add layers of leverage and risks to the banking system.
       After Jimmy Carter’s “stupid party” fizzled and conservative President Ronald Regan straightened out the American economy.  The same phenomenon is occurring right now with Donald Trump and the slew of GOP candidates lining up to put the American economy back together after the next election.  So while the bear is about to bite the economy and the stock markets, we should see this as an opportunity to sell out high and buy in low.  We will try to predict interim lows and highs.
      Hedge Funds brace for losses after the EU raise the value of the EURO.
      Global Oil glut is now going into final phase.
      Junk Bonds headed for the worst fire sale loss since Obama took office.  They issue a major sell signal.
      The latest mass murderer got his guns from a helpful but stupid neighbor who used a helpful but stupid gun dealer.  A good gun-law would be to make the stupid gun seller and stupid neighbor partially liable for the deaths resulting from being a good but stupid neighbor or dealer.  One method would be to immediately take the guns, ammunition, and license to use or sell guns away from any persons that stupidly directly or indirectly put the weapons in terrorist hands.  Therefore to avoid such a penalty, anyone involved would have to immediately report any facilitated or other suspicious gun sale to the FBI and local police.  Hunters and militia men should be able to handle that.  Remember the Founding Fathers gave Americans the right to have guns to rebel against any attempt by a totalitarian leader to take away any of our Constitutional rights or to change our form of government.
       This was the last lie that caused the stock markets to rise its last 1.3% in the first two hours on Friday!
Jobs: Fed gets green light to hike rates.  This is pure bullshit as we showed last week: 
USA TODAY - The Fed didn't need healthy job gains to push ahead with a rate hike in December. But that's what it got. And that's a good thing.
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